Hobbycomp

I’m tracking this daily with Breakout Desk Who’s the next spike before the hobby catches it? 👇 Drop your pick #SportsCards #MLB #CardCollecting #CardInvesting #TheHobby #hobbycomp

MLB card market is starting to shift… and most people are about to be late 👀 3 players just triggered major movement 🧵👇

Shohei Ohtani +51% price 📈 +900% volume This isn’t hype. This is what dominance looks like when the market catches up. The card market isn’t random. It’s a lagging indicator of: • Performance • Narrative • Attention If you track those early… you’re not chasing.

Gunnar Henderson +700% volume 💣 This is early-stage breakout behavior: performance → attention → demand Still room… but the window is closing. Sonny Gray +252% price 👀 No hype. No noise. Just production → value correction. These are the ones most people miss.

@SportsCardInv Roman Anthony and Leo DeVries

Name a player whose cards you think explode in value by end of year 👀

9 strikeout day for Sonny Gray!

Tonight, we have a double feature product breakdown from the Marvel Universe: 2025 Topps Chrome Deadpool & 2026 Finest Fantastic Four Per usual with the Marvel stuff, I won't overcook it. We'll roll these into one combined breakdown. I'll pick them both apart and let you all decide your own strategies. That said, both of these releases look intriguing in their own ways. First off, 2025 Topps Chrome Deadpool. Deadpool Chrome went up for pre-sale on March 3 at $200/box, oddly via EQL, which is typically reserved for high-demand releases. No clue what the success rate looked like, but it seems like an interesting choice. Cards look great, though. Sticking with the newer Chrome dynamics of some recent releases, boxes come with 10 packs of 8 cards with an additional 7-pack Value Box format coming in at $40. Total cards in the product: 8,212,640 Of this 2,374,080 (28.9%) will come from Hobby boxes, while 5,838,560 (71.1%) will come from Value boxes This is right in line with other ancillary Chrome releases like '25 Topps Chrome Marvel (8.125m total cards) & '25 Topps Chrome WWE (7.931m). Production by format: Hobby- 29,676 boxes (2,473 cases) Value- 208,520 boxes (5,213 cases) Base Card Production: 57,768 copies each What's in the Box: Hobby: Topps advertises 1 auto or sketch per hobby box and this one reconciles almost perfectly Autos- ~78% of boxes will produce an auto Sketches- ~22% of boxes will produce a sketch Parallels- 12 Inserts- 9.5 Numbered cards- 4 Honestly, I don’t even know what the bigger chase is here, autos or sketches. If you’ve got some insight, feel free to share. The auto checklist boasts some big names- Henry Cavill, Hugh Jackman, Josh Brolin, Ryan Reynolds, Terry Crews. But from my uninformed perspective, a hand-drawn sketch from an actual artist from the franchise seems way cooler than some barely legible chicken scratch from an actor. They're tougher pulls, too. Base sketches look to be around 27 copies per artist. With parallels, we're at ~44 total sketches each. Seems like a grind, but for actual professional artists, that's probably a cake walk. And I just think that is really cool. Outside of sketches, the thing that really jumps out is my favorite rare insert making its way into the Deadpool ecosystem…Hidden Gems. And this time, we actually get odds and print runs. If you follow sports products, you’ve seen these floating around for a few years, but actual hard data on them is a fairly new development. If you pull one, you’ll understand right away. Hidden Gems are an awesome showcase for the top characters in this set. They always look incredible. Value boxes: Autos- 1 per 34.5 boxes Sketches- 0 (hobby only) Parallels- 4 Inserts- 4.5 Numbered Cards- 1 per 2 boxes Value Map: $/card: 1) Value Box- $1.43 2) Hobby- $2.50 $/parallel: 1) Value Box- $10 2) Hobby- $16.67 $/Auto 1) Hobby- $256.41 2) Value Box- $1380 $/# card 1) Hobby- $50 2) Value Box- $80 Best Format: Hobby If searching for actual hits of substance, Hobby is the clear winner. An Auto in nearly 4 out of 5 boxes is solid. Sketch potential only resides in Hobby as well. Hobby is the most cost-effective way to pull every single parallel, auto, and insert parallel that is common to both boxes. However, I don't want to completely discount Value Boxes. If you were to spend $200 on one Hobby box or the same money on 5 Value boxes, you would end up with more parallels (20 vs 12), and Inserts (22.5 vs 9.5) from the Value boxes. However, hobby would still provide more numbered cards (4 vs 2.5) and a far better chance at Autos/Sketches. If both are an option for you, it's hard to find a reason to go with Value boxes. Print Runs: Parallels: Base Refractor- ~5,135 ea Prism (Hobby only)- ~990 ea Mini Diamonds (Value only)- ~3,650 ea Inserts: Comic Book Gold (30 card CL)- ~10,250 ea Cover Stars (30 card CL)- ~10,250 ea Future Stars (10 card CL)- ~11,400 ea Well, You Got Nothing to Say, Mouth (10 card CL)- ~11,400 ea 10005-Fire Unnumbered Refractor (10 card CL)- ~36 ea Best Bubs Unnumbered Refractor (10 card CL)- ~36 ea Looking for Logan Unnumbered Refractor (5 card CL)- ~20 ea Deadpool Reflections Unnumbered Refractor (5 card CL)- ~50 ea Hidden Gems Emerald (5 card CL)- 50 ea The Void Lava Refractor Parallel (10 card CL)- 20 ea Deadpool Icons Refractor (10 card CL, Value Only)- ~36,500 ea Topps Originals (10 card CL)- ~75 ea Sketch Cards: Deadpool Base Sketch (146 artist CL)- ~27 ea Deadpool Silver Foil Sketch- ~13 ea Deadpool Gold Foil Sketch- ~3 ea Deadpool Black Foil Sketch- /1 Marvel Comic Artist Sketch Cards Black Foil (2 card CL)- ~49 ea Autos: Best Bubs Refractor Autos (13 card CL)- ~190 ea Topps Chrome Refractor Autos (26 card CL)- ~275 ea On-Card Dual Inscriptions Refractor Book Card (1 card CL)- ~17 ea Marvel Comic Book Artist Refractor Autos (6 card CL)- ~290 ea Topps Chrome Refractor Dual Autos (9 card CL)- ~22 ea (These are tougher pulls than the Gold /50, Red/Orange Lava /39, and Orange /25 of the same subset) 2026 Topps Finest Fantastic Four This single format Hobby release went up for pre-sale on March 17th at $140/box. Another premium Chromium release with Finest branding, these boxes tout the typical Topps Finest dynamics of 6 packs of 10 cards. Quite a bit cheaper than the aformentioned Deadpool Chrome, with 75% as many cards, this one could actually be a better buy. But I have an issue with it that I'll get to momentarily. First, let's tear it apart. Total cards in product: 3,675,130 This puts it right in line with...wait for it... Finest NBA (3.68m cards). It's almost like they have a formula for Finest releases or something. Also very similar in size is 2025 Bowman's Best baseball (3.825m). Relative to the entire product landscape, this is actually very limited. Different animals entirely, but Finest NBA is currently selling for $900+/box. Total production: Hobby- 61,252 boxes (7,657 cases) Base card production: Base Common- 55,664 ea Base Uncommon- 5,250 ea Base Rare- 2,450 ea What's in the Box: As I mentioned earlier, this section is where things get a little weird. Topps says every box guarantees 1 Hit (Auto, Sketch, or Relic). The odds they released don’t back that up. To be clear, I believe the guarantee. If you get shorted, Topps will make it right through a simple online claim. I know...I'm a homer, but I’ve got no issue trusting them there. But the math doesn’t line up. And these odds aren't sloppy. The sheet actually reconciles cleanly, within about 3% overall. When I total Autos, Sketches, and Relics, it comes out to roughly 0.6 per box. That implies only 60% of boxes should have a hit. So one of the following things has to be true: 1) There are some specific hits not listed on the odds sheet, but still in the product. 2) Some listed items on the odds sheet are hits but aren't labeled clearly, either on the odds sheet or online checklists. 3) A chunk of boxes are missing hits. 4) Or some of the odds are just plain wrong. Any of those are in play. That said, don’t let it scare you off as this seems like a solid value product. Topps is guaranteeing a hit, and historically they stand behind that. You’re getting one. Hobby: Autos- 0.5/box Sketches + Relics- 0.12/box (1 Sketch or Relic per 8.5 boxes, essentially 1 per 8-box case) (The only sketches listed on the odds are "Sketch Cards" with a 116-card artist checklist. The only relics listed are extremely rare "Comic Excerpts: Silver Surfer" with a 10-card checklist.) Parallels- 3.9 Inserts- 6.6 Numbered cards- 2.5 Value Map: $/card- $2.33 $/parallel- $35.91 $/auto- $284.94 $/insert- $21.31 $/# card- $55.47 Aside from cost per parallel being about double, these numbers are very similar to Deadpool Chrome mentioned above and represent a decent showing for a $140 MSRP box. Takeaways: If you’re building a Fantastic Four set, Finest is about as good of a backbone as it gets. If you’ve never ripped Finest, you’re in for a treat. The cards pop, the finish is clean, and it fits this theme perfectly. Also, two of my favorite rare Finest inserts make an appearance, “Flame Throwers” and “Rock Stars." Unquestionably, two of the best inserts Finest has rolled out in its 30 years of existence. A quick look at the auto checklist shows me fewer big names than we found in Deadpool, with Pedro Pascal and Vanessa Kirby likely being the biggest chases. There's also a Stan Lee cut auto buried in the release somewhere. My diatribe about sketches from earlier still stands, and there are actually a few hundred more sketches in Finest Fantastic Four than in Deadpool Chrome, though there are no parallels. Based on early secondary market pricing of both franchises covered in this dual breakdown, Deadpool has clearly run hotter early. But it also had a two-week head start. Maybe the EQL rollout gave people confidence. Maybe it’s just a more edgy and rabid fanbase chasing it. Or maybe because Deadpool has less cards in existence. But of the two, if you're a Marvel fan, this Fantastic Four release looks equally as good and just might be the sneakier value play of the pair. Print runs: Parallels: Common Refractor (50 card CL)- ~1,470 ea Uncommon Refractor (35 card CL)- ~525 ea Rare Refractor (15 card CL) - ~245 ea Inserts: Adversaries (20 card CL)- ~3,675 ea Clobberin' Time (20 card CL)- ~3,675 ea Concept Art (20 card CL)- ~3,675 ea First Family (20 card CL)- ~3,675 ea Screen Moments (20 card CL)- ~3,675 ea Future Foundation ID Cards (10 card CL)- ~65 ea Astonishing (10 card CL)- ~230 ea Decades Posters (7 card CL)- ~130 ea Fantastic Science (10 card CL)- ~460 ea Finest Timelines (10 card CL)- ~460 ea Flame Throwers (8 card CL)- ~290 ea Rock Stars (8 card CL)- ~290 ea Topps Originals (10 card CL)- ~115 ea World's Greatest Comic Magazines (10 card CL)- ~460 ea Sketches/Relics: Comic Excerpts: Silver Surfer (10 card CL)- ~30 ea Sketch Cards (116 artist CL)- ~60 ea Autos: Comic Book Artis Autos (29 card CL)- ~325 ea Fantastic Science Autos (13 card CL)- ~205 ea Finest Autos (13 card CL)- ~480 ea Finest Dual Autos (6 card CL)- ~50 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026FinestFantasticFour #2025ToppsChromeDeadpool

@WaxMetrix Great work!

2025-26 Bowman Basketball- What to Expect If you’re like most of the hobby, you’ll be tuned in Tuesday when Topps opens pre-orders for what should be a monster: 2025-26 Bowman Basketball. We don’t have full details yet, mainly price, but we know enough to see how this is likely to go. For the uninitiated, this isn’t Bowman Chrome. Yes, there are Chrome cards, but most of the box is still Bowman paper. They also loaded it down with all the goodies in the repertoire. We’ve already seen rare hit previews like Crystallized, Garbage Pail Kids, Anime, Spotlights, Retrofractors, and Etched in Glass. Firefractors are in play too, which means retail formats are certain. It's also nice to see 2 autos/box vs the 1 auto found in Bowman baseball Hobby boxes, though I would expect a majority to be "prospects". Regardless, this is going to be a huge release. Demand will be strong and prices will climb no matter where it starts. But this isn’t some ultra-limited run. If you miss on pre-order or release day, it won’t be because there’s no product. It’ll be because the Topps site melts again like we've seen so many times before. Bowman is one of the Top 5 highly produced products of the year, behind all the MLB flagships and NBA flagship. If 2025-26 Topps Flagship NBA is any indication, and it probably is, production should land somewhere around 2025 Bowman Baseball. Here’s what that looked like: • Hobby boxes – 118,000 (9,800 cases) • Jumbo boxes – 60,675 (7,600 cases) • Value boxes – 1,100,000 (27,500 cases) You will be able to get this product in some fashion, eventually. As for the hobby SKUs, I highly doubt you will find them cheaper than pre-release/drop pricing, so it seems like a no-brainer to land what you can at those times. And even though there will be a lot, it may still be next to impossible to get in on the drop. So good luck with that. Just save me a spot in the virtual line if you don't mind. For retail, there is no reason to go nuts trying to order on pre-release. In fact, I wouldn't even bother. You'll be able to find blasters at MSRP in any sports card aisle on the planet. Good luck all. #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025BowmanBasketball

MLB, NBA, and NCAA prospects are all showing early signals The market hasn’t fully caught up yet. Who are you buying before the next move? 👇 #sportscards #thehobby #cardcollecting

If you’re waiting for price to move… you’re already late. Smart collectors watch volume first 👀 Breakout Desk → real signals across MLB, NBA, NCAA 👇 Who’s on your radar?

We’re seeing: 📈 Volume spikes 📉 Prices lagging (in some cases) That’s where the edge is.

There’s a clear pattern right now: Performance → Volume → Price Most people only react to the last step.

The hobby is shifting from reaction → anticipation And the people who win are early. #hobbycomp #sportscards #thehobby

Most people chase price. Smart collectors watch volume 👀 Breakout Desk highlights who’s actually moving right now across NBA, MLB, and prospects. Some already popped… Some haven’t yet. 👇 Who are you buying?

Right now: 📈 Volume is rising across multiple players 📉 Prices aren’t fully caught up That’s where the edge is.

We’re seeing a clear pattern: Performance → Volume → Price Most people only react to the last step.

There's no such thing as traveling in the NBA anymore. Jalen Green took SIX steps in a 1-point game with 25 seconds left... no call 😭

Never thought I'd be seeing David Ortiz's son single for the Red Sox. Here's D'Angelo Ortiz doing it in his first big league spring training AB. Also, shoutout Luis Guerrero.

Meanwhile… March Madness names are heating up BEFORE product drops: • Dybantsa • Acuff • Boozer 2026 Bowman Chrome 👀 The hobby isn’t just reacting anymore. It’s anticipating.

The card market is doing something interesting right now 👀 Luka drops 60 → volume +500% Price? Still down 📉 VJ Edgecombe → +400% volume Price down 40% March Madness stars heating up 🔥 (Just in time for 2026 Bowman Chrome…) 📊 Volume is telling the story before price does.