Howl the Wizard ✨🃏

after further analysis I have concluded we are going lower.

where's the bottom for Bitcoin, according to sentiment, levels and logic? I've been through 2022 bear, observing CT, but more importantly observing myself, calling every move down publicly with targets of 12-16k. I bought 19k in January 2023. I held until August 2025. not pixel perfect, but better than 99,9%. "everyone is waiting for one leg lower, so we won't get it" not really. there's an entire side of CT where they bullpost every compression since 125k for engagement, bankrupting their followers, as is every bear market on the flip-side there's also the doomer side where Saylor will blow up along with nuclear WW3 and we're going to $20-30k. usually we call them European, but honestly, there's a non-zero chance of that happening this time and finally, if we do get the leg lower into 40-55, it's very likely going to be accompanied by some gruesome narrative/causation/systemic risk that makes even the biggest bulls tremble in fear on the off-chance that this current structure is the bottom, markets usually perform a failed breakdown as a last bastion of liquidity grab - in that case it's also caused by gut-wrenching events [eg. FTX] making it paralyzing for participants to step in. you're better off buying the subsequent reclaim anyway it's never "that easy" when it's time to buy. don't delude yourself.

look at it this way, you're going to be granted generational entries in 2026. perpetual optimism.

started allocating to some alts that I believe have already bottomed/have minimum downside; - AI utility was the first sector to run in Q1 2023, first to top in 2024 - majority of alts have been in a systematic bear market since 2024, AI utility sector topped 2 years ago - last cycle, performing alts bottomed in June 2022 only to revisit lows on FTX collapse, I'm seeing same structures here that remind me of summer 2022 barring any extinction event/nuclear war, R:R on these tokens is good here nobody wants to buy anything until BTC bottoms, but if you study any bear market there's sectors/tokens that bottom before majors do Disclaimer: 99% of altcoins in top 200 still look like shit and ready for lower prices, especially memecoins - don't get it twisted. I also don't expect immediate upside, rather slow grinds, hence spot holdings. Not interested in large allocations to majors yet, except Hyperliquid.

don't get confused because I'm allocating <5% to a few good looking coins - I'm not flipping bullish yet on risk assets & I'm 90%+ flat however, it's undeniable that few tokens reach their 'value buy' zone sooner than the rest of the market - study '18 and '22 - my job is to find them being ready in correct coins that did 5-10x is something I mostly missed in Q1 2023 as I was in BTC/ETH that did merely a 2x upon first significant rally, whenever that may be, I shall not make the same 'mistake' again

Vibe coding is more addictive than any video game ever made (if you know what you want to build).

No one likes being bearish, but there are times when "defensive pessimism" (as I call it) is the only rational stance. All the outcomes before Trump's speech pointed to bearish outcomes of varying degrees. The reality of where we are: • The conflict will last AT LEAST another 2-3 weeks (hopeful scenario), which means that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, which would be 46-53 days closed. • Approximately 20–21 million barrels per day (bpd) flow through the Strait. If closed for 50 days, the cumulative deficit would be over 1 billion barrels. • The current closure of the Strait of Hormuz is officially the largest oil supply disruption in human history. It dwarfs the 1973 Oil Embargo (which saw a peak cut of ~4.3 million bpd) and the 1979 Iranian Revolution (~5.6 million bpd). • Inflation will rise over the coming months. Expect headline CPI to surge by 2-3% over the coming months as energy costs filter through the supply chain. • Central banks are trapped. They will be paused (maybe hike), and very concerned to not stoke the flames of inflation this year. 1970s-style inflationary spiral is embedded in the psyche of many at the Central Banks. • As energy costs act as a "tax" on consumers and collateral volatility rises, liquidity will tighten aggressively. The market has remained very optimistic/complacent and hasn't priced in the above. I think the nothing ever happens crowd are wrong here. In the same way that crypto participants were very complacent for months following its cyclical top, stock market participants are doing the same. Once the market prices in the reality that is unfolding and some of the worser case scenarios (the Strait being closed for even longer than another 2-3 weeks) then I think you will find many opportunities out there.

INTEL: Oil at $150 would trigger a global recession, according to Larry Fink in a recent interview

@Axel_Mnvn Do you have PA invalidations on your projects thesis, independent of how good fundamentals may those projects present??

Una de las cosas que más me está gustando sobre Maple es su gestión del riesgo. Han esquivado todas y cada una de las balas de los últimos meses: (i) liquidación masiva del 10/10, (ii) exploit de varios protocolos (USR...), (iii) caída drástica del precio e interés en el mercado. Si tienes visión de largo plazo, Maple Finance es un proyecto Top Tier.

the best bullish argument for Bitcoin is some variation of: "the market sucks and $BTC hasn't fallen off a cliff yet" that's not a very good argument.

JUST IN: OpenAI raises $122,000,000,000 at $852 billion valuation.

Since Feb I've been converting all of my trading profits into spot BTC. I plan on doing this the rest of the year.

markets often rhyme. next step: acceleration.

Funny how all we need to do is bet on history repeating the majority of the time to win consistently. I think the average human is geared up to worry about “what if this time is different.” And therefore plays for “this time is different” the majority of the time, when really the odds say you just need to play for “this time is the same.” The hard part is pattern matching the right part of history and conditions that match where you are today. Humans are predictable and will continue to exhibit the same reactions and behaviours to events just like they did in the past.

"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome." History has shown us that humans can overcome any challenge given the right incentive. There is a massive incentive (quite literally all of their savings and future wealth) for Bitcoiners to solve the problems that quantum poses for both the network and older existing coins. If this paper doesn't light a fire under the Bitcoin core devs and community than nothing will. It will take herculean effort, but I believe they will get it done. I don't bet against smart motivated humans. Quantum is the final existential risk that Bitcoin faces, and quite possible the last great generational entry as a result.

Para cuando los 6,7 millones de BTC que Google dice que se encuentran en direcciones vulnerables a ataques cuánticos, tengan un riesgo real, toda la infraestructura tradicional estará aún peor. Si la criptografía está en riesgo, bancos, gobiernos y empresas lo están todavía más en términos de complejidad de migración, porque dependen de sistemas grandes, antiguos y difíciles de actualizar a tiempo.

El paper catastrofista de Google sobre el riesgo de las criptomonedas ante la computación cuántica que tanto está alarmando se resume en lo siguiente: - Los ordenadores cuánticos podrán romper la criptografía que protege Bitcoin y Ethereum en 9 minutos. - Eso abriría la puerta a ataques contra transacciones públicas: el atacante ve la clave pública, intenta romperla durante la ventana de confirmación y puede colar una transacción fraudulenta antes de que se mine el bloque. - Los 6.7 millones de BTC con clave pública expuesta son un blanco fijo. Los activos dormidos o con clave ya expuesta son especialmente difíciles de proteger y la migración a PQC llega tarde para parte de ese saldo. - Ethereum tiene 5 vectores de ataque distintos. Stablecoins, bridges, L2s, smart contracts, stablecoins… el ecosistema DeFi es vulnerable. Clave pública visible → clave privada calculable → fondos comprometidos → robo posible en minutos. El paper plantea una carrera contra el reloj: si los ordenadores cuánticos lo bastante potentes llegan antes de que se actualice la seguridad de las criptomonedas, los primeros en caer serían las wallets antiguas, los fondos olvidados, las cuentas activas de los exchanges y parte de los sistemas DeFi. En 2028 aparecen los primeros ataques, en 2029 defi es el objetivo prioritario y en 2030 llegan ataques a bitcoin. No hay fechas concretas según Google pero si urgencia inmediata: 6,7 millones de BTC se encuentran en direcciones vulnerables a ataques cuánticos.

Most people view times like these as unbearable rather than opportunistic. I’m running the same playbook as April 2025 tariff crash. Averaging in on strong names and S&P. The plunge protection crew shows up eventually. If you’re buying here with bullets for lower, you’re good imo

I wanted to share a bunch of my favorite hidden and under-utilized features in Claude Code. I'll focus on the ones I use the most. Here goes.

9/ Use /btw for side queries I use this all the time to answer quick questions while the agent works