Hugo Manenti

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Hugo Manenti

Hugo Manenti

@HugoManenti

Pro Investor @etoro. Check my portfolio 👉 https://t.co/eLmlyNbBoD Ex Private Equity and M&A professional.

انضم Nisan 2021
158 يتبع1.9K المتابعون
Unintended Consequence
Unintended Consequence@UnintendedCons5·
If Trump doesn't annouce a clear "Walk away", WTI prices go: Spoiler alert - they cannot walk #oott
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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
@BlacklionCTA Learned behaviours are hard to shed. And AI progress in the background is making it twice as hard
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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
@EconstratPB Also higher oil *should* lead to a supply response that benefits a meaningful share of the US economy
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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
@Rory_Johnston Iran collects a toll, makes sure oil stays > $100 but does not entirely wreck the world economy. Who will do something about it?
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Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston·
My rough Iran War scenario probabilities over the next month are: 🌮 40% unilateral TACO, Iran maintains some hybrid control of Strait 🪖 30% boots on the ground, strait stays blocked, spiked risk of more upstream attacks, global economy withers 🤷🏻‍♂️ 30% all the other bizarre ad hoc scenarios one can imagine (and based on my replies, there are PLENTY) WIDE range of entirely reasonable base case price forecasts, but they're all safely higher than pre-war levels.
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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
@VKMacro Also the counterparty doesn't have a clear interest in quick de-escalation this time
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VKMacro
VKMacro@VKMacro·
And it’s a war, so path to mutual agreement is harder etc etc
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VKMacro
VKMacro@VKMacro·
Some headlines from this time last year… “No tariffs talks underway” “three to four week resolution” “Ready to fight to the end” Question is more about negative theta
VKMacro tweet media
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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
@BlacklionCTA Which is to say - I think one should consider shorting this bounce
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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
It's unacceptable, yet Trump won't do anything about it and no one else can / will take on a China and Russia-backed Iran. Puzzles me why the market is so optimistic. I personally expected that we'd bottom on US boots on the ground actually starting to clear the Strait... not this.
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Brent aka Blacklion
Brent aka Blacklion@BlacklionCTA·
“Iran sovereignty over the strait is an unacceptable outcome.” Everything else in this conflict is noise until this is universally acknowledged and the key participant - 🇺🇸 - appears clueless.
Joumanna Nasr Bercetche@JoumannaTV

On the “fate of the Strait” Two developments in the last day 1) Trump has de-linked the war from the Strait re-opening 2) appears to be a global coordinated push to re-open it. UK PM Starmer saying they will host an international meeting this weekend. GCC states also reiterating that a solution needs to be found. Iran sovereignty over the strait is an unacceptable outcome

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Paul Cerro
Paul Cerro@paulcerro·
Cancelling the suspension of soldiers doing what they weren't supposed to be doing because the act that they did was for a notorious MAGA guy is the definition of rewarding political loyalty and not reinforcing right from wrong So incompetent
Pete Hegseth@PeteHegseth

Thank you @KidRock. @USArmy pilots suspension LIFTED. No punishment. No investigation. Carry on, patriots. 🇺🇸

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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
@Big_Orrin Yup. Now we might be about to do it in reverse. Traders caught short without any physical barrels to deliver
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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
@Big_Orrin The most liquid market in the world - isn’t it what they used to say about oil? Well, it turns out that price discovery is dead. I wonder where Brent and TTF trade when there’s no molecule available
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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
@darioperkins Did you see how happy the Bosnians were? Running around freely! Like we liberated them. That's the real victory.
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Dario Perkins
Dario Perkins@darioperkins·
Is it too late to taco? 🇮🇹
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The Energy Realist
The Energy Realist@EnergyRealist25·
$OIH $ESI.TO $HP $NBR $PD.TO $PTEN US rigs by operator/contractor via TD/Enverus. Private oil operators seem to have given up the prior week gain, possibly rigs moving. Gas rigs may have also peaked for now, already -10% from the 150 top 3 weeks ago 🤷‍♂️
The Energy Realist tweet media
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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
@JohnRei39666313 Hasn't done much since TBD! Risk to assets in the Middle East balancing longer-term benefits
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John Reilly
John Reilly@JohnRei39666313·
@HugoManenti $Rig CLOSED at 6.47 Friday before bombing started Saturday. FYG
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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
10 days and the Strait is still closed and - reportedly - mined. Pretty close to a worse case scenario. Yet, since the war started: - $AMTM down 3.5% - $RIG down 3.4% - $TDW down 3.1% (after jumping on earnings) - $PUMP flat - $AR up only 1.7% - $FANG up only 2.5% While $IGV is up 5%. Thanks for playing Hugo
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Hugo Manenti
Hugo Manenti@HugoManenti·
@Rory_Johnston You're saying we can't teleport crude straight to refinery? And then to my tank? Wow
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Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston·
oil on water cannot be drawn to zero commercial inventories cannot be drawn to zero if either is at zero the oil industry quite simply no longer exists
GIF
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اكتشف

@UnintendedCons5 @BlacklionCTA @EconstratPB @Rory_Johnston @VKMacro @realDonaldTrump @fkronawitter1 @paulcerro