Lefty- blue sky from now on

@SolomonKurz @GKountourides You've done awesome work. Thanks for sharing! If you find space to discuss the Jacobian adjustment as well, it would be something like (awesome work)^2

New book version up! solomon.quarto.pub/sr2rstan/ This is the 0.0.3 version of the #rstan sibling to my #brms translation of McElreath's 2nd edition. #Rstats 1/4

@PloederlM I don't know if the results would change but as it seems that you're looking for a casual relationship, the analysis would be more insightful. My example might be nonsense but wealthier individuals might use filters or bottled water so their suicide ratio might not be on lithium

@PloederlM Sorry yes that's what I had on my mind

@PloederlM Is there a causal diagram?

@SolomonKurz Have you seen these? occasionaldivergences.com/posts/non-cent… mlisi.xyz/post/bayesian-…

I'm looking for examples simple multilevel models [e.g., y ~ 1 + x + (1 + x | group) in lme4 syntax] coded in Stan/rstan/cmdstanr. Good clean code, the kind you'd recommend for learning. Centered and non-centered parameterization are welcome. #RStats #rstan

@OrlandoRibasFer @Locati0ns Within that time frame

@Locati0ns 🇵🇹 the oldest one

Fascinating to watch. 1000 years of European borders change.

@martinmbauer They might not have apple trees over there.

Velocity distribution of stars in a galaxy Left : expected assuming only visible matter using GR/Newtons law Right: observed Something makes stars far from the centre move much faster then expected 🤔

@mattansb Oh what workshop? Where will it be?

From an upcoming Bayes workshop - the 5 general types of opinionated* priors. Am I missing any? (*I don't like "strong" priors - priors are only strong / weak relative to data...)

@AJThurston {sensitivity} and {fda} good luck looking for keywords to find resources

Drop the most cursed R package names in the replies 👇 See if you can beat one of my favorites: {gargle}

@yifever @tcarpenter216 Oh it's censored

oh you're a data scientist? name 3 data

@bayesmoon Is there a plan to share any material after the event?

🔬 Researchers at #AOM2024! Don't miss Bayesian Statistics: Conduct & Publish High-Quality Studies to learn • Bayesian vs. significance tests • Step-by-step studies • Priors, MCMC, communication Join Bayesian community! Resources available. Register: cdmcd.co/yKQa3A

@bayesmoon @mcmc_stan But why Saturday?

@rlmcelreath @mcmc_stan Jacobian adjustment? What does this look like on Stan?

Forces have conspired to get me to teach a 3 hour introduction to @mcmc_stan tutorial for the below. If there are things about Stan you always wanted to know, or found confusing, reply to this thread

Dr Deffner was my phd student but he recovered from the experience, is doing rigorous work now at the border of cog sci and machine learning

@SolomonKurz The focus is on the density or on the trace plots? If it's in density then the vertical trace plots much nicely.

Experimenting with a way to present trace plots and density plots for MCMC. What are your basic* thoughts on this kind of layout? *Don't get caught up on the facet labels on the top. Those will make sense on the context of the broader work.

@ajordannafa Why "simplifying assumption"? Why is a simplification?

@dr_keithmcnulty Would you like to share at a point how you'll handle the bias?

@JonSteinsson Hollywood's Dreamland is on the right side of the ocean. For some.

Germans, the French, and Italians work much less than Americans. Why? Prescott famously argued that this was due to high taxes in Europe. Really? Let’s kick the tires a little on this controversial idea. 1/N

@djsyclik @mcmc_stan @rinpharma Will you make available the workshop's recording?

I'm teaching a Stan (@mcmc_stan) workshop on Monday! It's free and open to the public. Monday, October 16. 12 - 2 PM ET. Zoom. Register: eventbrite.com/e/building-a-s… We'll be simulating time-to-event data and writing Stan models to fit it. Thanks, @rinpharma!

@rohmanoabdur @mattansb @IDF Yes the hostages are thirsty.

@mattansb @IDF War is bad. But cutting off the supply of food, water, fuel, electricity, and medicine into a city home to two million people while bombarding civilian houses inside and threatening to strike outsiders who will deliver external aids is another level of war crime.

War is bad. But there *is* a difference between the @IDF warning Gazan civilians to evacuate their building because it will be bombarded to eliminate some Hamas infrastructure.. ..and Hamas *targeting* civilians: beheading babies, raping teens, executing families. #HamasISIS