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Armada
3.3K posts
Armada
@MayMarkets
From PM to now a sell-side equity analyst | Eppur, si muove! - Galileo
Amberca | Firenze انضم Mayıs 2022
846 يتبع205 المتابعون
Armada أُعيد تغريده
There's a physicist at Stanford named Safi Bahcall who modeled this exact principle and the math is wild.
He calls it "phase transitions in human networks." When you're stationary, your probability of a lucky event is limited to your existing surface area: the people you already know, the places you already go, the ideas you've already been exposed to. Your opportunity window is fixed.
When you move, your collision rate with new nodes in a network increases nonlinearly. Double your movement (new conversations, new cities, new projects) and your probability of a serendipitous encounter doesn't double. It roughly quadruples. Because each new node connects you to their entire network, not just to them.
Richard Wiseman ran a 10-year study at the University of Hertfordshire tracking self-described "lucky" and "unlucky" people. The single biggest differentiator wasn't IQ, education, or family money. Lucky people scored significantly higher on one trait: openness to experience. They talked to strangers more, varied their routines more, and said yes to invitations at nearly twice the rate.
The "unlucky" group followed the same routes, ate at the same restaurants, and talked to the same 5 people. Their networks were closed loops. No new inputs, no new collisions.
Luck isn't random. Luck is surface area. And surface area is a function of movement.
The lobster emoji is doing more work than most people realize. Lobsters grow by shedding their shell when it gets too tight. The growth requires a period of total vulnerability. No protection, no armor, soft body exposed to the ocean.
That's the cost of movement nobody posts about. You have to be uncomfortable first. The new shell only hardens after you've already moved.
dو@D9vidson
a moving man will meet his luck 🥀
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Armada أُعيد تغريده
@MayMarkets @ZubairKhanPK youthiye ab durson ko chutiya honay ka certificate batengy lol
Filipino
What they are doing with Imran Khan sisters is nothing new or unexpected of them, they didnt even spare Fatima Jinnah!
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हिन्दी
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@ZubairKhanPK Just like Imran Khan didn't spare Nawaz Sharif, his daughter and his dying wife?
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@mrhostyle Maybe verbal sabre-rattling still? He knows his support is fading, hence willing to make a deal if Iran shows some flexibility. Remains to be seen if Iran is playing deception this time (extension of talks to break his ground root support while killing markets) or not.
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If the US or Israel were to use nuclear weapons against a country without nuclear weapons - Iran, it would remove the threshold that currently restrains nuclear use. This could make it easier for Russia to justify using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, erasing that red line. In turn, this erosion of restraint could extend to other nuclear powers - China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea - lowering the barrier to nuclear use in their own direct military conflicts.
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This is so hyperbolic that it’s almost certainly puffery and he’ll delay or do some smaller version of it and delay.
Sid Prabhu@sidprabhu
I don’t think it’s a bluff this time.
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@MofaYasir Just to show to Riyadh that "we are on it". Problem is, the ones in Riyadh are now extremely smart and understand the deceptive fauji breed that resides in GHQ.
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ایران کے سعودیہ پرحملے غیر ضروری کشیدگی ہیں، یہ حملے تنازع کےحل کی مخلصانہ کوششوں کو نقصان پہنچارہے ہیں: کورکمانڈرز کانفرنس
Pakistani Generals are sell outs and that is why Iranians didn't take them seriously but still they will claim credit whenever the War stops on it's own
geonewsurdu.tv/latest/431426-
Armada أُعيد تغريده
Peter Hegseth is Robert McNamara lite. He will suffer the same date with the conflict with Iran dubbed as "Hegseth's war". Save this!
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If there would be a usa iran agreement in pipeline then the junta touts wouldn't be announcing it that loud, we are not close to any agreement, all this noise is for something else.
Remember we got to know about pak saudi defense pact once it was finalized.
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@MayMarkets Let's see. Pakistan military-controlled journalists are again tweeting about a possible breakthrough. I don't know why they are doing the same thing daily.
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Pakistani leaks to Haaretz suggest that Munir has been talking to the IRGC's Vahidi either directly or indirectly. If Vahidi is running the show as Pak believes and he attacked Saudis the day after talking to Munir, means he was either told or he deduced Pak's probable decisions.
hostyle@mrhostyle
The Saudi-Pakistan pact deterrence has clearly collapsed. Did Iran come to a conclusion about Pakistan after the Field Marshal's latest attempt at mediation yesterday? The question now is, what will the Saudis do in response?
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@ZubairKhanPK 5 years later: NFP, residing in the U.S, tries to explain why it is bad that PTI went on a revenge spree after his favourite marshall tried to dismantle them. Kanjar incarnate thinks he'll escape accountability by sucking up the next fauji lead.
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PTI dismantled is a Dream for Haters of Imran Khan, its just brute force as other party cant pick up Guns, likes of NFP got Zaleelofied on Election Day 2024 along with Shehzad Ghias on his podcast but have no Shame
PPP is Good for Karachi tells NFP IQ!
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@mrhostyle I'd say after the initial list of demands, it was the watering down exercise via Munir who, was just bullying IRGC to water down the list to 5 max. Even if ceasefire happens, the surest measure for it to hold will be lifting of global sanctions, chance of which is remote.
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@MayMarkets This is my thinking too but it's more about Trump than Munir. It could be an attempt to make Trump feel threatened and agree to their demands which essentially come down to letting them control the SOH.
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@mrhostyle So Pak's modus is "thand rakho" till something really big blows up (hence reluctant war participant in worst case)? UAE, not pleased, Saudis getting 2x ditched feelings (Yemen&now), you think Saudis will continue to buy Pak restraint or a brigade will be sent soon for optics?
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@MayMarkets Pakistani leaks to Haaretz suggest that Munir has been talking to the IRGC's Vahidi either directly or indirectly. If Vahidi is running the show as Pak believes and he attacked Saudis the day after talking to Munir, means he was either told or he deduced Pak's probable decisions
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@mrhostyle Thanks. Wouldn't you say that it has not collapsed but rather refined and tuned in real time, since Pak is exercising restraint (at the anger of Saudis)?
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@MayMarkets These strikes were preempted by Iran. They seem related to this
x.com/mrhostyle/stat…
hostyle@mrhostyle
The Saudi-Pakistan pact deterrence has clearly collapsed. Did Iran come to a conclusion about Pakistan after the Field Marshal's latest attempt at mediation yesterday? The question now is, what will the Saudis do in response?
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