MicroCapDanmark

@KarstResearch posted a bear case on $ABX. Respectfully, the analysis has some material errors. Let's walk through it claim by claim using the actual 10-K. CLAIM: "No real cash generation — OCF negative $25.7mm" Under ASC 325-30, life settlement policy purchases flow through operating cash flows — not investing, unlike virtually every other asset-intensive business. The 10-K shows $49.2mm of net policy deployment embedded in OCF. That's deliberate capital deployment into income-generating assets, not operational burn. Adjusted EBITDA was $132.6mm on $235.2mm revenue — a 56% margin. And OCF improved $183mm year-over-year (from -$208.8mm to -$25.7mm). That directly contradicts the narrative of deteriorating cash dynamics. CLAIM: "135% of EPS is unrealized gain — EPS is vapor" The far more important number is realized gains on policies actually sold: $178.6mm in 2025. The unrealized gains ($49.3mm) are marked using a 13% discount rate calibrated directly to actual historical transaction prices — not a theoretical actuarial assumption. Weighted average realized gain on policies sold rose from 24.9% in 2024 to 32.5% in 2025 — the portfolio outperforms the model. Grant Thornton verified fair value and reviewed lookback analysis comparing prior valuations to actual sale prices. This is grounded in 1,000+ real transactions, not vapor. CLAIM: "86 cents of debt per dollar of policy assets" This ratio is intentionally narrow — it measures only policy assets against all debt, ignoring $38mm cash, $18mm AR, $21.5mm management fee receivables, and the acquired businesses generating real revenue. Carlisle alone generated $26.4mm in recurring management fees on $2.4B of longevity fund AUM. FCF Advisors manages $850mm in ETFs. These are durable, fee-generating platforms — not inert paper assets. You can't strip them out and call the balance sheet levered. CLAIM: "TBV per share = $0.42" The standard TBV calculation starts from total stockholders' equity — which already nets all assets against all liabilities — and subtracts intangibles: Equity: $418.5mm Less goodwill: ($252.8mm) Less intangibles: ($66.4mm) TBV = $99.4mm → $1.02/share Karst got $0.42 by starting from non-current assets only and subtracting selectively — omitting $38mm of cash and other current assets while including all liabilities. That's not how TBV works. The goodwill represents Carlisle, FCF, NIB, and AccuQuote — all revenue-generating, all passed impairment testing, all independently reviewed by Grant Thornton.

@CCM_Brett Because right now there is a lot of good deals, while Hermes is only relative "cheap" to where it has been. If it was 6 months back i could justify it. Also we pay taxes here 🤣, lets use the P/E