Aron
20K posts


think $JTO good spot alt buy & hold here, extremely beaten down after 10/10 and general underperformance of sol alts
combined w/ @jtx_trade launch soon directing 80% of all fees to $JTO buys while they already run a lot of solana's core infra
this could 3x relatively quickly

Ansem@blknoiz06
gonna be pretty crazy if jito revitalizes solana from the bottom two cycles in a row
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@blknoiz06 @jtx_trade Your tweets have topped Near, wld etc before. Great r/r
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@crypto_condom @AltcoinSherpa I know many crypto folks that are too scared they’d topblast tradfi markets. Just like with crypto in 2021, outsiders get the idea of easy money only near a top.
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@AltcoinSherpa or, simply dont invest and do tradfi until things improve. Its not worth trying to hop on scam coins that the cabal can turn on in an instant.
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Day 535: $1k -> $1m Challenge
Portfolio value: $115,315.66 (+6.36%)
After capitalizing on last week's dip all stock positions are now in profit again. Previous highs are the obvious next objectives which would be another ~20-30% gain from here.
My $CARDS position is up ~10%. Also expecting more here. They recently announced on Discord that they are having troubles restocking the gacha machine at a sufficient pace. Growth is not a problem.
Not much to do until we take out previous highs across the board.

papi.hl@papipnl
Day 534: $1k -> $1m Challenge Portfolio value: $108,415.28 (+0.21%) good night my sweet princes.
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@AltcoinSherpa Seems like the trend (on 4h) just continued with a higher low for alts like hype, lit, wld, cards etc. Would you except this to go on as long as btc is up or sideways?
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Pretty flat on active positions right now. I have some spot BTC that I just am holding but other than that, waiting for the next opportunity. Have been playing these bounces pretty well for the most part (but didn't bottom tick anything due to travel). I think there are some interesting coins out there still but I'm going to just be flexible. Happy to buy stuff higher too, not an issue (if btc still looks strong)
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Let's run some numbers on $POD, and address why the FDV is truly a 'meme' in this case:
At its last datagen peak the network processed 3.5B output tokens/day across a 600-GPU fleet. With V2 unlocking meaningful per-GPU efficiency gains, 10B output tokens/day is a reasonable conservative target to anchor against. Below is what both look like at OpenRouter-rate pricing ($0.80 per 1M output, $0.15 per 1M input) and the historical 20:1 input:output ratio that real agent workloads tend to land on.
Note: this is a single-model exercise (Qwen 3.6 35B economics). In practice the network will serve a basket including Gemma 31B and 26B, which are faster and cheaper, broadening the addressable demand pool. So the math here is conservative on the revenue side.
Current 3.5B output/day:
Output revenue: $2,800/day
Input revenue: $10,500/day
Gross revenue: $13,300/day, all of which routes to POD buybacks
Node emissions ($0.50 per 1M output): $1,750/day
Buyback-to-emissions ratio: 7.6x (!)
For every $1 of POD paid out as emissions, $7.60 of POD is being bought back off the market. Most of those emissions are paid bonded, with a 20% fee on liquid claims routing back to stakers, so even the share that does hit the float gets partially absorbed by the same flywheel.
Against ~$10M in circulating market cap, that means current-rate buybacks already represent roughly 4% of the float being bought back annually. Post-V2 scenario, closer to 13%. On the float that's actually tradeable, the bid is structurally large.
Annualised current: ~$4.85M gross to buyback against a $100M FDV. About 21x.
Post-V2 conservative 10B output/day, same prices and mix:
Gross revenue: $38,000/day → ~$13.9M/year to buyback
Node emissions: $5,000/day
Buyback-to-emissions ratio: 7.6x (constant, the design scales linearly)
For benchmark, HYPE currently generates around $2.54M/day in fee-driven buybacks, $927M annualised, against a $58B FDV. The market values that buyback flow at roughly 63x.
Apply the same multiple to POD's current 3.5B-per-day economics and the implied FDV is roughly $300M, about 3x current. Apply it to the post-V2 10B scenario and you land closer to $880M, around 8.8x current.
The 10B figure is a working assumption of what V2 should unlock; the real number could be lower or higher and needs to be seen once V2 ships and the API is live. But the 7.6x buyback-to-emissions ratio is what makes the FDV stop mattering the way most people assume it does. It is not a token waiting to dump on you. It is a token the protocol is mechanically buying back faster than it is being issued.
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𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐥 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝟖𝟖𝟖𝟖𝟖𝟖 𝐭𝐨 𝟖𝟖𝟖𝟖𝟖𝟖𝟖
swapped 92608111 $BNKR for 48019.59$
price at time of selling: 0.000519 $
PnL: -1981$ (-3.96%)
swapped 31496 $USDC for 946035694 $openhuman
mc at time of buying: 3m $
high risk high reward play. gotta risk some capital on one of these from time to time.
𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬:
950027 USDC
946m openhuman
𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐛𝐚𝐫 (𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐝):
▮▮▯▯▯▯▯▯▯▯▯▯▯▯▯▯▯▯▯▯ 10.68%
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@TraderMercury How do you identify when a trend is worth joining? As soon as prices are up it feels like a missed move.
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if you missed the bullmarket in crypto, you could've caught the initial rally in AI stocks
if you missed AI, there was a bullrun on Gold
if you missed Gold, there was a catchup trade on Silver
if you missed Silver, Oil pulled a crazy move
if you missed Oil, there was always time to get in on semis
there is always another trade.
when you operate in a disciplined manner which reflects that understanding, you find yourself getting "lucky" more frequently.

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@imapiggy_pig I tried it too, but closed yesterday right below $1, as it was the third time it didn’t really do much more. Would be interested to see how you treat losses/ when you cut this.
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@imapiggy_pig Good trade sir. What is your usual time horizon for trades? Daily or weekly flips?
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