Give it a read!
The Copernicus Problem: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
capabliitysecondsindex.com
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Tim O'Brien
228 posts
Tim O'Brien
@OBrienTweets
Measuring the deflation curve of AI - https://t.co/Kmc7lv1AvB | Founder, Nine Island Advisory. Tweets span M&A, Venture, AI, Econ, Digital Health & The Mets
San Francisco انضم Temmuz 2015
2.4K يتبع645 المتابعون
Let's update the new Complexity Index.
The January 20 validated sell signal still in force.
The current Complexity Index chart is here:
deluxe-paletas-fdf112.netlify.app
Cut to the chase:
• Complexity correlates with fragility.
• Complexity is steadily rising as of today's close ... and nearing a new ugly.
If you're new to this index (a nextSignals original) or properly skeptical ... read the stuff in the Mar 15 links below to get oriented.
The Tail That Wags The Dog@TailThatWagsDog
Sun Mar 15 | 4:00PM Update - Complexity Index (CI) • On Dec 16, 2025, the Complexity Index (CI) issued a signal, albeit unconfirmed, identifying elevated decline probabilities. CI is a regime risk indicator, not a precise crash timer. (See Critical Appraisal of the Complexity Index - link below). • On Jan 20, 2026, VIX spiked and the first structural break in SPX for 2026 occurred. CI is now a valid warning. • On Mar 6, a second structural break is identified as complexity (and VIX) continues to climb. (This sequence is labeled in the image below.) KEY POINTS 1. In major indices, higher "complexity" is derived from richer interactions, greater informational feedbacks, and amplification loops ... which, taken together, cause more frequent volatility spikes, structural breaks, and regime shifts. Empirical evidence finds complexity correlates with fragility. 2. "The Complexity Index sell signal functions as a regime risk indicator rather than a precise crash timer. Its predictive content manifests not as binary crash prediction but as systematic degradation of the forward return distribution: compressed expected returns, elevated decline probabilities, and collapsed risk-adjusted performance across all horizons from 20 to 90 days." Links Netlify Interactive: mellifluous-meerkat-77058c.netlify.app Critical Appraisal of a new index to anticipate a regime change: pbs.twimg.com/card_img/20324…
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Nvidia gets Beijing's nod for H200 chip sales, adapts Groq chip for China, sources say reut.rs/3NzK8WG reut.rs/3NzK8WG
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AI is supposed to save me time, but now I find myself building stuff all evening and weekend and it's actually increasing my time in front of the computer
WTF
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WATCH: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that he believes AI will increase productivity and create jobs rather than eliminate them, speaking during a Q&A session at the company's GTC developer conference
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@WSJ The Street prices AI companies on revenue multiples.
While the underlying commodity — a unit of useful intelligence — has no standard measurement, no spot price, no term structure.
Everyone has a guess as to where we are going - Here is where we are - capabilitysecondsindex.com
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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled NemoClaw, a new software tool kit to help businesses safely build and run autonomous agents with OpenClaw on.wsj.com/4sPqaGy
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We're measuring this in real time. 16 frontier models, same tasks, same scoring, every day.
The spread today: $0.009 vs $1.35 to summarize the same 80K-token document. 150×.
The deflation is real but it's not uniform — it's a pricing gap hiding inside a commodity market.
capabilitysecondsindex.com
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@nvidianewsroom The margin capture shifts from inference to orchestration. The GTC takeaway in one sentence. NVIDIA wants to own the OS layer for AI agents. I don't blame them - If they succeed, every model provider becomes an app running on NVIDIA's platform. #GTC #capabilitysecondsindex.com
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#NVIDIAGTC news: NVIDIA announces NemoClaw for the OpenClaw agent platform.
NVIDIA NemoClaw installs NVIDIA Nemotron models and the NVIDIA OpenShell runtime in a single command, adding privacy and security controls to run secure, always-on AI assistants. nvda.ws/47xOPqQ
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@nvidianewsroom Post
capabilitysecondsindex.com
7× more inference from the same silicon. Run the math on what that does to API pricing in 6 months...
Is every model provider is sitting on a margin compression time-bomb?
Have their investors not modeled this out? They will be
#GTC2026
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#NVIDIAGTC news: NVIDIA Dynamo 1.0 enters production as the broadly adopted inference operating system for AI factories.
Dynamo 1.0 boosts Blackwell inference performance by up to 7x.
The industry is scaling on NVIDIA. ⬇️nvda.ws/40yOvV6
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Tim O'Brien أُعيد تغريده
This one’s a not really a debate.
A LOT of great pizza in Pittsburgh. The Italians run a fantastic culture DAHN ‘ere.. but when it comes to best in Da Burgh?
🗣🗣 Della Sala’s
NEXT QUESTION
Ruben A Campos@RubenACampos
#Pittsburgh by the slice. Settle the debate. Best slice in the ’Burgh?
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Tim O'Brien أُعيد تغريده
My Heisman top 5 right now
1 Julian Sayin, Ohio State
2 Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State
3 Ty Simpson, Alabama
4 Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
5 Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
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Tim O'Brien أُعيد تغريده
