Octagon Oracle

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Oof, rough night for the Oracle tonight. One fight left. Maybe 50% accuracy on the night. Worst night predicting in 10 events. Its been a weird night of fights. So the Oracle has Malott winning this last one, I'm saying screw it and calling a first round knock out by Burns. #ufc #ufcwinnipeg

Starting off the night 0 for 1 with the loss by Siraj. #ufc #ufcfightnight

A draw two weeks in a row. Hate to see it. But without the point taken away, would have been another correct pick for the Oracle. #ufc #ufcfightnight

Octagon Oracle’s locked in on Malott vs Burns tonight and the model is leaning hard on Mike Malott at 76 percent. Let me break down why. Vegas has Malott at minus 278, Burns coming back at plus 225. The Oracle’s giving you a 5.9 percent edge on Malott — meaning the model thinks the market is actually sleeping on him at this price. Confidence reads Strong. Most likely outcome? Decision. Here’s the tale of the tape. Malott’s landing 53 percent of his significant strikes versus Burns at 48. He’s outputting 2.8 per minute to Burns’s 1.9. Three-inch reach advantage. Riding a three-fight streak while Burns is sitting on a negative-four. And Malott’s five years younger at 34 versus 39. The model’s style read calls Malott a submission specialist and Burns a counter striker — and that matters. Because Burns’s whole win path is getting Malott uncomfortable in his preferred range. If he can’t, this is Malott banking rounds with cleaner volume and range control. Finish profile: 38 percent KO, 23 percent sub, 39 percent decision. Round one finish sitting at 25 percent. Over 1.5 rounds hitting 59. Biggest factors pushing Malott? Youth at plus 13.5, Vegas odds at plus 9.4, momentum plus 3.5, Elo plus 3.1. The one thing dragging him down is Burns’s losing streak actually scoring minus 7.8 for Malott — which is the model telling you a desperate Burns is still dangerous. Flip condition — and this is the one to watch — if Malott loses the distance battle early and starts eating the cleaner shots first, this gets way closer than the headline number suggests. Oracle’s pick: Malott by decision. Full breakdown on octagonoracle.ai.

@BorrachinhaMMA @Josh_HokitUFC Oh I’m ready for this matchup!

@Josh_HokitUFC Yes I’m coming to u and get back my money you owe me

250? You fat cow pig!!!

Malott being favored isn't the story. The line has already drifted back toward Burns, but our board still keeps Malott clear and makes DEC the likeliest path. That's usually a sign the market is respecting Burns' name more than the pace of the matchup. The full fight-week board is live at octagonoracle.ai

The Oracle had a down week last week at UFC 327. It missed 4 out of 11 fights, 63.6% accuracy. We now have 9 events under our belt and are at a 74.1% accuracy overall. Bright spot was two underdog picks hit last week with Hokit (although the Oracle was much higher on him than I was comfortable with) and Luque. The Jiri vs Ulberg fight was weird. Possible that goes a different way without the injury, but Ulberg is looking pretty legit. #ufc #ufc327 #hokit #octagonoracle Check out this weeks picks: OctagonOracle.ai

Jiri beat himself. He had a wounded fighter and got cocky. Props to Ulberg for getting that finish on one leg. Crazy finish.

I just wanna know when we’re getting #hokit vs #pereira? #ufc #ufc327

Alright Jiri, bring us home.

Two left and going strong, only two missed so far tonight. This one the Oracle has Murzakanov at 56% confidence. Let’s finish strong! Hard to top that last fight. OctagonOracle.ai for more predictions #ufc #ufc327

This fight is insane! I think all of us watching are the winners.

This is the one I’ve been waiting for. I was shocked and remain shocked that the Oracle has Hokit winning with 88% confidence. You’d think he was going up against someone who’s never fought before. Really curious to see how this plays out. OctagonOracle.ai #ufc #ufc327 #hokit #blaydes

How that made it out of the first round and Hokit survived is beyond me. 10-9 blaydes.

Glad that one’s over.

Slight edge to Reyes on this one. Almost a toss up. OctagonOracle.ai #ufc #ufc327

I’m thinking Reyes wins by split decision

Same for round 2. I think Reyes did more. I have it 20-18 Reyes but can see it being 19-19 or even 20-18 Walker.