OneOpenSea

@VictoriaT_ History is full of examples of warfare successfully forcing negotiations

💯 We cannot bomb our way into a negotiation.

@VictoriaT_ Worked in Japan

@FirstSquawk It's just a flesh wound

IRAN’S MILITARY SPOKESPERSON SAYS: BIGGER, WIDER, AND MORE DAMAGING ATTACKS ARE COMING SOON: TASNIM #breaking

@The_AI_Investor Ukraine seems to be getting some business opportunities selling drones to oil producing countries Iran has attacked.

“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” Russia and China do not need to “save” Iran to win. That is the ugly part of this war: even silence can be strategy. Russia wins if oil stays high, sanctions pressure weakens, and US attention shifts away from Ukraine. China wins if the US gets trapped in another Middle East quagmire while Beijing keeps securing discounted Iranian oil, with some of that trade settled in renminbi through China’s CIPS system instead of relying on Western financial rails.

Some countries might align themselves more closely with China and transact more in the yuan, but it's subject to currency controls and lacks the deep liquidity of the dollar. So there isn't a strong alternative. If the dollar stablecoin market expands as expected it will drive more treasury purchases. At present 99% of stablecoins are dollar backed, and Europe doesn't seem to have the decisiveness to compete. Hard see the dollar displaced anytime soon.

@OneOpenSea @MaMoMVPY Exactly, half of a century with a free money printing machine we sponsered. How do u think a country gets to have 32trillions in debt?. It was the base of a military alliance, that is why nobody complained because it was mutually beneficial. The moment that is gone, everything is

Maybe it is time to once again remind everybody that running a global reserve currency necessitates that you have a lot of wealthy ALLIES willing to hold your Treasury bonds and your currency. If you piss off your allies they will not in the long run hold on to these assets and you will have to pay a lot more to fund your enormous public debt.

@WildeFocker @MaMoMVPY Yeah, 55 years ago. But even that was purely transactional. Point being dollar will be the reserve currency as long as it makes economic sense. Best house in a bad neighborhood.

@OneOpenSea @MaMoMVPY Of course, it was one of the bases of our past alliance

@UnintendedCons5 Nukes set back a few years. Control of the artery...if they can control it, yeah, but there are 35 nations meeting in the UK tomorrow to address that. Let's see how long they can hold the tiger by the tail before you start declaring victory.

@OneOpenSea It doesn't matter. Small replaceable potatoes vs control of the global energy artery plus nukes and sanctions. Trees vs forest etc...

Nothing - he can't leave. Its an utter disaster. Iran effective unsanctioned, SOH closed, no nuclear deal. Its a total US loss. The entire thing is absurd

Since the start of "Operation Epic Fury" on February 28, 2026, the U.S.-Israeli coalition has systematically dismantled Iran's ability to project power. From a strategic perspective—focused on regional stability and the neutralization of threats—the following military capabilities have been neutralized: Strategic Neutralization of Offensive Power * Missile & Drone Infrastructure: The core of Iran’s "deterrence" has been gutted. Over 190 ballistic missile launchers and dozens of production sites (including the Khojir and Shahroud complexes) have been destroyed. This effectively ends Iran's ability to conduct sustained, large-scale long-range strikes. * Naval Dominance: The Iranian Navy has been largely eliminated as a functional force, with approximately 150 vessels destroyed. This has significantly reduced their capacity for mine-laying or harassing international shipping in the Persian Gulf. * Air Superiority: Coalition forces have established near-total control of Iranian airspace. By destroying at least 12 major radar systems and numerous S-300/S-400 batteries, the coalition can now operate with impunity from western Iran to Tehran. Command and Proxy Degradation * Leadership Vacuum: The elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and top IRGC commanders in the initial wave has fractured the centralized command structure. The "command and control" network is now described by analysts as "massively degraded." * Proxy Isolation: Strategic strikes have severed the logistical "land bridge" to proxies like Hezbollah and militias in Iraq and Syria. Without the steady flow of Iranian-made drones and precision missiles, these groups are increasingly isolated and under-equipped. Nuclear Program Setbacks * Facility Damage: Key infrastructure at Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan, and Karaj has been hit. While technical knowledge remains, the physical machinery and hardened facilities required for near-weapons-grade enrichment have suffered catastrophic damage, pushing any potential "breakout" timeline back by years.

@OneOpenSea Plus nukes, plus no sanctions Bombing a few thousands buildings? China can rebuild that in a year

This article by Max Weinbach argues that the most effective AI agent architecture consists of a high-intelligence cloud model acting as a central "orchestrator" that utilizes smaller, specialized models as tools. Despite earlier predictions, small local models (3–7B parameters) have not reached the reasoning capabilities of frontier models like GPT-5.4 or Claude Opus 4.6, leading to a persistent "capability gap." Key economic and structural insights include: * Sub-agents as Tools: Local or smaller open models (e.g., Nemotron 3 Super, gpt-oss-120b) are best suited for token-heavy "grunt work" like data collection, file searching, and privacy-sensitive tasks. * Token Economics: Large enterprises often pay 5–8x less than public API rates through "hush-hush" minimum-spend agreements and dedicated GPU deployments. * Enterprise vs. Consumer: Enterprises prioritize reliability and will likely stick to frontier cloud models to avoid the high "correction costs" of smaller models. Consumers may use local NPUs to stretch the value of their subscriptions. * Product Strategy: Companies like Apple and Google are expected to treat AI as a loss leader, bundling inference costs into high-margin hardware and services to drive ecosystem loyalty.

I wrote a solid 5000+ words about agents, products vs. features with AI, economics of cloud models, and where local fits. It's a lot, but worth the read. creativestrategies.com/research/agent…

@fbeirao The war in Iran is only going to accelerate European dependence on Asian slave/wage slave labor for its green revolution.

Made-in-Europe Solar Is Far Pricier Than the Competition 🔆

@Rory_Johnston If it's just jawboning it seems to be working x.com/i/status/20392…

Boots on the ground would be bad but I'd understand it. Unilateral TACO is understandable but an admission of failure (even if Trump claims victory) "We'll keep doing this the same for now but leave in 2-3 weeks" is... just a weird way to telegraph your intentions? What's solved in 2-3 more weeks on this?

@MikeLongTerm @OpenAI Good point

Yet they still said @OpenAI wont have the money to pay $AMD and refused to adjust revenue and eps forecast.

@Rory_Johnston I tend to think he's just trying to jawbone other countries into contributing to the security of the strait

Bloomberg: “I would say that within two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three,” Trump told reporters in the White House on Tuesday. “We’ll leave because there’s no reason for us to do this.”

@ericnuttall I wonder what the cumulative effect of demand destruction (including increased investment in renewables and electrification) will be long-term. The geopolitical premium will certainly endure, but to what extent will that be offset? In any case, it's surely net bullish oil.

An incomplete list of what "the day after" will look like and why the US/Iran "excursion" will have a lasting impact on the oil market: 🛢️the process of Strait of Hormuz normalization will be measured in months even when "peace" comes, whatever that may look like. Voyage time to get empty vessels into the Strait and then back to destination points = months. Until then, production losses (now ~11MM Bbl/d) mount, yet safety buffers like unsanctioned oil-on-water and SPR will soon be very inadequate. Physical shortages imminent. 🛢️forecasted Middle Eastern production cumulative losses ~900MM Bbls even with things normalizing in April = death of the Super Glut narrative = baseline reset for balances. Inevitable demand destruction cannot offset 11MM Bbl/d of production losses. 🛢️production coming back online will take months (Kuwait saying 3-4 months, what of Iraq?) + potential for (semi) permanent losses due to reservoir damage 🛢️expected enduring political risk premium of $10/bbl-$20/bbl with new floor price of $70-$80 🛢️what is the value of OPEC spare capacity (all 1.5MM Bbl/of it pre-war) if much of it is vulnerable to a $30,000 drone = increasing strategic value of long-dated reserves in politically stable countries with egress (🇨🇦) 🛢️we already have strategic hoarding and product export bans, expect more countries to build SPRs = future demand 🛢️still TBD damage of many refineries and infrastructure = abnormally high refining margins, plus need to replenish what was already low stock levels

@SheDrills @VandanaHari_SG You actually believed trump?

@VandanaHari_SG The thought that the US escalated a situation that resulted in the Strait closing then might simply “take their ball and go home” leaving the region in crisis is absolutely incredible. We are playing global economic crisis roulette.

Not sure what to make of words on the war from Trump any more, but here you go: "Trump tells aides he's willing to end war without reopening Hormuz" -- WSJ Admin officials assess that forcing the waterway back open would mean extending military mission, according to the report. The US will keep pressing Tehran diplomatically to reopen the Strait. If that fails, it would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead in reopening it.

@tokenterminal Quadrillions of transactions happening on Linux every year

Ethereum processes ~$8 trillion in stablecoin transfer volume per quarter. What will this figure look like in an agent-first era?

@ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy @nytimes It hasn't spiked nearly as much as during the first couple of years of the war in Ukraine. That demonstrates that investment in export and import facilities is effective in stabilizing prices.

“The credibility of L.N.G. and gas imports really has taken a hit,” said Ira Joseph, a senior research associate at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “Because of Russia first and now Qatar.” @ColumbiaUEnergy” nytimes.com/2026/03/29/bus… via @NYTimes