PredictPrism

We're building PredictScope — an open intelligence framework for @PredictDotFun on BNB Chain. CA:0x505f4d28c02f17f3ec8fd6999c2b084812937777 Here's what the skeleton looks like today: → Signal Feed — a structure for surfacing markets worth watching → Smart Wallet Ranking — a framework for scoring on-chain betting addresses → Market Intel Drawer — a shell for deep-diving into why odds are moving Currently running on Predict testnet data. No mainnet keys yet. No fake numbers filling the gaps — if a field isn't wired, it says "Not live." Why share this early? Because we think the prediction market space on BNB Chain needs better tooling, and we'd rather build in the open than drop a polished launch with zero community input. If you're interested in Predict.fun 's ecosystem, come watch us build. 🔗 predictprism.fun

The end goal for this product is not complicated. When someone opens Predict.fun, we want PredictPrism to become the second screen they keep beside it. One screen for execution. One screen for context. Signals. Wallets. Recent fills. Countdowns. Watchlists. Alerts. That is the whole job. If the app becomes part of a user's daily routine, we did something right. If it only looks good in screenshots, we did not. That is why we keep talking about workflows instead of just visuals. The point is not to build a prettier market site. It is to build the companion layer people do not want to trade without once the ecosystem gets bigger. It is still early. But the direction feels clear.

Ranking wallets one by one is useful. Comparing them side by side might be even better. Some wallets are accurate but slow. Some are early but noisy. Some only look strong because they stay inside one narrow category. When you compare them head to head, those differences stop hiding behind a single score. That is why wallet comparison is on the roadmap. Not to make the app look more sophisticated. To make the judgment layer more honest. A blended ranking is good for scanning. A comparison view is better for understanding what kind of edge each address might actually have. We want both.

One future feature I keep coming back to is signal replay. Not because replay sounds fancy. Because hindsight is useful when it is honest. If a market eventually resolves hard one way, what did the board actually look like six hours earlier? Which wallets were already there? What did the score say? Was the clue real, or are we inventing a story after the fact? Once you start storing snapshots, those questions become answerable. That is where the product gets more interesting. It stops being just a live screen. It becomes a learning tool. You can review what the system surfaced, what it missed, and what patterns only look obvious in hindsight. That kind of review loop is how tools get better and users get sharper at the same time.

For a lot of crypto users, browser tabs are temporary. Telegram is where attention actually lives. So if alerts become part of PredictPrism, Telegram matters too. Same principle, though: fewer, sharper, more useful. Not a paragraph. Not fake urgency. Not a siren every time a market twitches. Just the essentials: which market, what changed, why it might matter, and a clean link back into the product. If we cannot make a Telegram alert feel worth reading in three seconds, we should not send it. That is the bar. 🔗 predictprism.fun

We are cautious about alerts. Most crypto products overdo them. If everything pings, nothing matters. So when we talk about browser push alerts in PredictPrism, the idea is not endless noise. It is a small set of events that might genuinely deserve interruption: a watched market moving hard, a followed wallet entering something new, or a closing window getting tight on a market you care about. That is it. Alerts should feel earned. If we cannot explain why a notification deserved your attention, it probably should not exist. We would rather send fewer alerts that get opened than a flood of "engagement" junk everyone learns to ignore. The standard is simple: interrupt me only when there is a decent chance I will thank you for it.

Mr. Star, did you change your pinned post in order to continue fueling/hyping the prediction market? @star_okx @heyibinance

Every serious user eventually builds a mental list of wallets they care about. Some they respect. Some they distrust. Some they just want to study. The product should let that list live somewhere. That is why wallet follow lists matter. Not because we want social features for the sake of it. Because following a handful of addresses over time is how judgment compounds. A global ranking can help with discovery. Your own follow list is what turns discovery into a repeatable workflow. If we do it right, that list becomes your research lens. That is much more interesting than treating every user like they should look at the exact same board forever.

There is a big difference between: "this market looks interesting" and "I want to keep checking this market today." That gap is where watchlists start to matter. The feed is great for discovery. A watchlist is better for focus. You pin the few markets that matter to you, come back later, and immediately see what changed: odds, timing, wallet activity, maybe eventually stored snapshot deltas too. No need to re-scan the whole board every time. That is one of the clearest next steps for making the product actually sticky. People do not build habits around interesting screenshots. They build habits around workflows that save them time twice a day. Watchlists are exactly that kind of feature.

Feeds get worse the moment they become a pile. That is true in social apps. It is also true in market tools. If Predict.fun keeps growing, a useful companion layer needs more than a ranking. It needs control. Category filters. Boosted-only views. Score bands. Recency. Closing-soon toggles. None of this is glamorous enough to headline a launch thread. It is still the sort of product work that decides whether people come back. We think about this a lot because the goal is not to build a pretty screenshot. It is to build a screen people can actually work from when the board gets crowded. Good filters do not make the product more complicated. They keep it usable as reality gets more complicated.

If someone hears about an event on X and comes into the app, the first job is not deep analysis. The first job is: find the right market fast. That is why market search matters more than it sounds. When search is slow or messy, every other feature becomes less useful. You cannot analyze what you cannot find. We want PredictPrism to feel like an operator terminal, and operator terminals do not make people hunt for the obvious. Type the market. Find the match. Open the context. Move on. Small feature? Maybe in a roadmap doc. In actual daily use, it is the difference between a tool that feels sharp and one that feels decorative.

Sometimes the interesting thing is not who keeps trading. It is who just showed up. A market feels different when a wallet with a real track record enters it for the first time, or enters much earlier than the rest of the board. That is the kind of fresh-entry detection we want in the signal layer. Not just: "volume is up." More like: "a credible address took interest here before the move got crowded." That is a much better starting point for research. Volume by itself can be noisy. Fresh serious participation can be much more revealing. If we can surface that cleanly, the feed gets sharper without getting noisier. That is the sweet spot.

One wallet entering a market can be interesting. Three respected wallets leaning the same way in a tight window is a different kind of signal. That is why a consensus view is on our mind. Not because we think clustered behavior is always right. It is not. But when strong wallets start lining up before the crowd notices, that deserves a cleaner surface than "you happened to spot it in the feed." The hard part is doing this without turning coincidence into prophecy. So if we build it, it has to stay honest: who entered, when, how much agreement there really was, and how much confidence the pattern actually deserves. Not a magic answer key. Just a sharper way to surface credible overlap. That could become one of the most useful research views in the product if we get it right.

Not every session should start with a blank scan of the whole market universe. Sometimes what you want is much simpler: what actually moved today? That is why a clean Daily Movers view keeps making the roadmap. Not a giant list of everything open on Predict.fun. Just the markets that genuinely changed: meaningful probability moves, credible wallet participation, late pressure, or a spike in activity worth a second look. Think of it like the operator's morning brief. If the board can answer "what woke up while I was away?" in one screen, it immediately becomes more useful as a daily habit. That is the kind of surface we want to earn. Less wandering. More orientation.

Right now, market intel lives in a drawer. That is a deliberate MVP choice. For fast workflows, a drawer is great: spot a signal, open context, read the essentials, go back to the feed. That loop is quick, and quick matters. But some markets deserve more room than a side panel can give them. History. Stored snapshots. Longer event context. Maybe replay. Maybe richer wallet participation breakdowns. That is why a proper market page is on the path ahead. The drawer is for triage. The page is for research. Eventually we want both. MVP should optimize for speed first. Later stages can afford more depth. That feels like the right order.

One of the easiest mistakes in wallet ranking is also one of the most common: confusing a tiny hot streak with real edge. A wallet that went 2 for 2 can look amazing. That does not automatically make it smart money. This is where a lot of leaderboards get weird. They reward small-sample perfection and end up turning noise into status. We do not want PredictPrism to do that. Part of the scoring work ahead is not just finding winners. It is discounting fragile winners. That means thinking harder about: sample size, breadth, recency, confidence, and whether the behavior keeps holding up over time. The honest version of wallet intelligence is a little less exciting than a leaderboard full of overnight legends. But it is much more useful. If a wallet score cannot survive contact with basic statistical common sense, it should not survive in the product either.

One question keeps coming up around wallet tooling: why not just show ROI? Short answer: because not every nice-looking number is an honest one. Prediction market wallet performance is easy to oversimplify. If the underlying data does not support a clean ROI metric directly, forcing one into the UI creates fake precision. That is exactly the kind of thing we are trying not to do. So for now, we would rather lean on metrics we can defend: hit rate, activity, conviction proxies, recent form, sample size, and eventually clearer score explainers. Could we slap a big ROI badge onto the board and make it look more exciting? Sure. Would that make the product more trustworthy? Not really. Sometimes discipline means leaving out the metric people expect until it can be shown honestly. We think that trade is worth making.

Some of the highest-utility work in a product looks boring from the outside. Search. Sort. Filter. That is true on the wallet side too. If you already know the address you want, the app should get out of your way. If you want the most accurate wallets, sort for that. If you want the busiest ones, sort for that. If you want to scan recent form or conviction, same story. There is nothing exotic about it. It is just a faster path from question to answer. A lot of tools try to impress users by inventing more layers. We keep coming back to the opposite instinct: make the obvious actions effortless. Because when someone is scanning a live market environment, shaving off friction is often more useful than adding another shiny panel. Good operator tooling feels quick. Not crowded.

A leaderboard gets attention. A profile gives you a reason to care. Once a wallet shows up near the top, the next questions are obvious: What does this address actually trade? How active is it? Is the hit rate backed by enough behavior to matter? What kinds of markets keep showing up in its history? That is why the wallet layer cannot stop at rank and score. Inside PredictPrism, the direction is to make each wallet feel less like a number and more like a pattern: hit rate, activity, recent streak, focus tags, recent markets, related signals, and a clean path out to the explorer. We are not trying to build wallet worship. We are trying to make "worth watching" easier to judge. That is a much better standard.

🚩To enable better communication among everyone, we have created a Telegram community. 🚩We hope everyone can interact friendly in the group and give us valuable suggestions for our next phase of development. ▶️t.me/PredictPrism

This is not the sexiest sentence in crypto, but it might be one of the most useful: keep the last good snapshot. PredictPrism already persists payloads and history into local SQLite storage. Why bother? Because upstream APIs are not perfect, and a serious product should not fall apart the second one refresh fails. That does not mean hiding the problem. If we are serving stored data, the UI should say so. If something is not live, it should say that too. But continuity matters. When you are checking wallets, reviewing a market, or comparing what changed over time, it is much better to have the last honest state than a blank screen pretending nothing exists. This is the kind of product work most people never mention in public because it is not very glamorous. We think it is worth mentioning anyway. Sharp tools do not just look good when the pipe is clean. They stay usable when the pipe coughs.