Prenchie
229 posts

Prenchie
@Prenchie_
Créer le chaos et en tirer parti | Trading | Mathématiques bancales 🇫🇷 Not affiliate to @Frenchie_


I expect a peace deal with Iran to be reached by tomorrow!




Google closed the first $1B hyperscaler muni prepay last week with a California community power agency. Morgan Stanley sees $100B more coming. This could be the most important infrastructure finance story no one is talking about ⬇️ The structure starts with a tax exemption. Municipal conduits can issue bonds at ~4% because investors accept lower yields in exchange for tax-free income. A bank intermediary receives those proceeds and invests them at taxable rates, call it 6-7%. The bank uses that spread to subsidize the price it charges the utility for long-term power supply, locking in a discount of 8-10% below market rates for 20-30 years through a commodity swap. The utility passes those savings directly to ratepayers. The discount is part of the monetized value of the federal tax exemption, passed through to households as cheaper energy. Congress blessed the structure in the 2005 Energy Policy Act specifically because the savings flow to ratepayers of a public utility, not to private profits. In Alphabet's deal, Pioneer Community Energy in Placer County, California is the beneficiary. The power goes to Pioneer's 150,000 residential and commercial ratepayers. Alphabet acts as financial intermediary, capturing the bank spread. Ratepayers win. Google wins. Best-in-class investment-grade secured DC debt currently prices at ~6%, with unsecured paper at 9%. The muni prepay conduit delivers equivalent long-dated power at 150-400bps lower all-in cost, locked for two decades. That spread is permanent and structurally unavailable to any for-profit operator. They simply cannot issue tax-exempt debt. (The cost of capital is the central determinant of value for any neocloud or HPC developer with long-dated contracted cash flows. A developer carrying $800M in triple-net AI lease net operating income (NOI) would see the implied equity value of those contracts move from $8B to $10B on 200bps of discount rate compression alone. That math is why the structural cost advantage of public entities could matter so much.) Every corner of the political spectrum is circling the same question: who captures AI's economic upside? Some want wealth taxes on AI companies. Others want moratoriums on data centers or the government taking equity stakes in frontier AI labs. Trump's Ratepayer Protection Pledge commits hyperscalers to covering the full cost of their power so ordinary households don't foot the bill. All of them are reaching for new mechanisms. But the mechanism already exists. Municipal and public power utilities, TVA, Salt River Project, Austin Energy, CPS Energy, NYPA, serve 55 million Americans across 2,000 communities in 49 states. They can issue tax-exempt bonds to lock in AI infrastructure power at structurally lower cost than any private operator. No new legislation. No bureaucracy. No wealth tax. Morgan Stanley projects $100B of incremental muni issuance coming, a capital wave that would reprice the power economics of the AI buildout at rates the private market simply cannot match. The structural cost of capital advantage can belong permanently to public entities, if they embrace it. A municipal utility in any community with power infrastructure can issue prepay bonds, anchor a hyperscale tenant, and return the economics to local ratepayers through lower power bills. Pioneer just demonstrated that a 150,000-account Community Choice Aggregator can be the counterparty to a $1B Google transaction. Communities don't need to nationalize AI to win. They can own the infrastructure, fund it at the lowest cost of capital available in the US debt market, serve hyperscale tenants at competitive rates, and return the surplus to residents. The political debate assumes AI's economic value can only be captured through taxation or seizure. The muni prepay market says otherwise.

If you run out of cash to buy this dip, use margin, if you run out of margin, sell your house



Si vous vous demandez pourquoi les actifs à risque sont en train de baisser, n’oubliez pas que vendredi est le jour de l’IPO de SpaceX : la plus grande IPO de l’histoire des marchés financiers ; 1750 milliards de dollars. Une telle IPO demande de la liquidité et engendre du FOMO et de l’euphorie. Le marché baisse car il a besoin de liquidité. Ma cible est 28 600 sur $NQ, je m’attends à une reprise haussière en fin de semaine.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US launches second wave of strikes on Iran, explosions reported.





Nouveau fud aujourd'hui : Mythos arrive demain, retirez vos fonds de protocoles DeFi / revoke approvals. Je suis d'accord ça risque d'être un carnage. Mais normalement c'est quelque chose que vous devriez déjà faire ultra régulièrement. On a eu bien 100-200 hacks et exploits depuis le début de l'année soit une bonne dizaine d'incidents par semaine, pleins de protocoles en pertes de vitesse qui arrêtent leurs opérations, si vous avez pas déjà fait du tri dans vos positions vous jouez avec le feu. Kelp ($293M) et Drift ($285M) sont parmi les plus gros hacks de tous les temps. Derrière on a également eu Resolv ($25M), Step ($30M), hier Humanity ($30M) et des dizaines d'autres. defillama.com/hacks Pas eu besoin d'attendre Mythos pour savoir que la DeFi était un terrain miné et que dans la plupart des cas les rendements étaient largement insuffisants par rapport au risque encouru. Donc oui svp faites du tri dans vos wallets, retirez vos fonds de tous les protocoles pourris et revoke approvals, mais pas seulement à cause de Mythos. Partez du principe que chaque centime déposé dans un protocole peut disparaître du jour au lendemain. Même sur Hyperliquid. La probabilité est très faible mais non nulle. Considérez chaque position (même stable sur un protocole énorme et audité) comme à risque, et soyez sûr d'accepter ce risque. Posez-vous quelques heures sur votre hygiène numérique, si vous pouvez vous le permettre achetez un ordi uniquement crypto, revoyez votre protocole de sécurité, posez une stratégie d'allocation DeFi en % de votre pf total claire et respectez là. La crypto y a pas de SAV, tu perds tout personne viendra te sauver. Avec ou sans Mythos vous n'avez pas d'autre choix que d'être irréprochable.









