Ryan

Belmont Racing Festival at Saratoga Thursday Selections Intercontinental & Belmont Gold Cup Stakes

@RacingDownWind You too this week!

@RyanPip_ GL Ryan

Belmont Racing Festival at Saratoga Wednesday Selections New York Showcase Day

BAQ Trends Last Week • Posts 1-3 won 8-of-12 dirt sprints • 6-of-8 turf sprints were won by posts 1-3 • Stalkers were 4-for-7 in dirt mile races

Belmont at the Big A Spring Meet Track Profile Week Three • Early runners are winning 52% of mile races • Posts 4-6 are winning 51% of dirt sprints • 50% of turf routes have been won by early runners, but outer turf routes, they are 1-for-12

Curious how everyone with way more knowledge on this issue would feel about this idea. What are the pros and cons?

Most bettors say they want to “bet better.” The problem is that they never define what that actually means. They keep handicapping and betting the same way…Hoping for a different result. Reverse engineer it. Know your target, bet to make that goal, pass when it doesn’t fit.

Churchill Downs Friday Selections

A race can be handicapped correctly and still be a terrible betting opportunity. That’s the disconnect most never realize. Picking winners and making profitable bets are not the same thing.

Churchill Downs Thursday Selections

CD Profile cont. • Closers are winning 60% of turf routes. Last week, they were 4-for-9. One of the sneakier biases is that posts 7+ are winning 44% of turf routes. They were 4-for-9 last week. See the full profile breakdowns for Churchill Downs ⬇️ open.substack.com/pub/bettingthe…

Churchill Downs Spring Meet Track Profile Week Three • Early runners are winning 48% of dirt sprints. Last week, they were 8-for-13. Watch posts 1-3 this week, since they were 7-for-13 in week three. • Posts 4-6 are winning 50% of dirt routes. Last week, they were 5-for-7.

Outer Turf Routes Early speed is not as strong on the outer turf. They are 1-for-10 overall, and that lone win came last week. Stalkers went 3-for-5 last week and are winning 50% of races so far. Closers are right behind, winning 4-of-the-10 races.

Turf Routes Early runners are controlling the turf routes so far, being 6-for-11 over the two weeks. This past week, they were 3-for-5.

🧵 Belmont at the Big A Spring Meet Track Profile Week Two Inside posts had a terrible time last week at BAQ in the one-turn dirt races. Also, be sure to check out how the outer turf is playing since it is opposite of the rest of the turf routes.