Timothy Bond

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Timothy Bond

Timothy Bond

@TimothyBon194

Currently learning to day trade ES.

Houston Texas انضم Ağustos 2024
41 يتبع65 المتابعون
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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
One of the added bonuses about sitting in runners is you have plenty of time to study! In the past I've dreaded trading after breakouts but last week demonstrated that you can still trade FBDs almost everyday, even when relentlessly grinding higher. It was a masterclass in trading the "multi-touch shelf" type FBDs. Will no longer dread trading after breakouts. Here are some notes for anyone interested.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Push continues in #ES_F. Same drill every week: Thurs/Friday crash, Sunday gap down/Failed Breakdown/Monday rip. Per Friday 4pm newsletter 6367, 6385 & 6411 reclaims were ALL triggers. Targets were 6454 (hit). 6476, 6492, 6520 above Ride runner. 6445, 6420 now supports from here
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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
Trick is to gauge the volatility state (in low volatility be patient, can be more aggressive in higher vol), either way, wait for an increase in momentum as we push through, or lift off from the level. A 10min close in high volatility can be far above the level. No one size fits all unfortunately. Gauging the entry is the real skill part of this system IMO.
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Stephen J
Stephen J@StephenJ223624·
@AdamMancini4 Adam the 78-82 reclaim had clear acceptance from 8:10 to 8:30am when you say you can enter after it clears do you mean as we clear the wicks above 82 or waiting for a closure of say the 10min candle?
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Once again evening traders got all the action in #ES_F. 6778-82 is key. Its reclaim (given in 4pm newsletter) took us to 6830 overnight. I posted 6778-82 was 1st support today, just quickly trapped again. Its weak now. 6798, 6813, 6829-32 if ES wants more. 6758 next support down
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

The long continues to pay in #ES_F. Monday 9:25PM I posted 6612 reclaim gets us long. Main was 6778-82, and we hit. In 4pm newsletter, I posted traps of 6778-82 trigger back up, we got it to 6830 830pm Plan today: 6778-82 (watch traps), 6758=supports. 6798, 6813, 6829-30 targets

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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
@AndreeaSte4 @Uncultured_Man @AdamMancini4 Here's trade recap from last week. Not sure what the problem is. Most trade ideas were given out in advance via the Newsletter or if not via tweet. Thats not to say its easy, it certainly isn't.
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Andreeas
Andreeas@AndreeaSte4·
@Uncultured_Man @AdamMancini4 Random idea: checkout all his posts from last week with the /ES chat wide open and see... all the failed breakdowns. And one more thing, more objective review:
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
There's 6752 2nd bonus target hit and we are now +150 points from last nights 6612 Failed Breakdown given at 9:25PM. Today's targets given at 8am were 6680, 6704, 6716 (all hit). I wrote bulls regain control above 6716 6739, 6752 were bonus. All hit. Just ride runner for 6778-82
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

Its been a perfect leg up in #ES_F and all targets are hit. At 9:25PM last evening I gave the 6612 reclaim long. For those who missed it, 1.5hrs ago I gave the 6663 reclaim long. Targets given were 6680 (hit), 6704 (hit), 6716 (just hit). We are done - all bonus 6739, 6752 bonus

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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Note: For those who want an unbiased, balanced, realistic view of what my newsletter offers (and importantly what it doesn't), I found this well-written review on reddit that covers most the bases. Not affiliated with the author at all reddit.com/r/Trading/comm…
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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
@ajayc11 @AdamMancini4 I've been posting trade recap videos here if you're interested. Not always exactly per NL as I'm often recording before NL comes out but for the most part pretty close. @ES_FBD" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@ES_FBD
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AJ
AJ@ajayc11·
@AdamMancini4 Fair review.. I do need to add that the NL is quite verbose. Would be fantastic if you could explain a lot more of your past trades and levels via charts.. Much easier to understand and revisit. Could probably cut all the writing by 30%..
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Aaron JP
Aaron JP@jpmanx03·
@AdamMancini4 Adam was there any acceptance at the 6929 level earlier at 10.05am?
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Highly routine action in #ES_F. "elevator down" sell. 6867-70 was support given, held. After every "elevator down" sell comes a Failed Breakdown, then short squeeze. 6891 recovery was trigger given. Targets given were 6904 (hit), 6913 (hit), 6925-30 next, then back to 6943 again
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

We finally have volatility in #ES_F and levels respecting well. 6867-70 was support as posted. It held. I then posted 6891 had to reclaim to see 6904. We reclaimed, and hit 6904. ***Protect gains here lvl to lvl leave runner*** 6913, 6918, 6925-30 if ES wants more. Sell<6867

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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
@kevinc2114 @AdamMancini4 The trap was so slow though. Could have easily woke up to a full stop if you'd held. Over a large sample size of the same PA, I think that was the right decision (even thou you would be up and done on this one).
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クリスピン
クリスピン@kevinc2114·
@AdamMancini4 I entered that trap last night and cut it at break-even before going to bed, woke up with all the regret lol
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
On Friday Failed Breakdown of Thursday #ES_F low got us long with 6925 target. Been a ceiling. Last eve, we got a tiny retrace. Per newsletter, 6870 traps were long trigger. Back up we went Plan today: 6888, 6870 (watch traps)=support. 94 reclaim to see 6898, 6907+. Sell<6870
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

All targets today hit but lvls still respecting in #ES_F. The 6847.75 yesterday low Failed Breakdown got us long given 8:50AM.Targets were 6884 main (hit), 6898, 6913, 6925 bonus (high of day). 6954 is next I posted 1hr ago 6876 support, held, back up. Hold runner. 6876=support

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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
Trade Recap for today, in this video I discuss the 6876 FBD shortly after the open. A straight forward trade, identified ahead of time during the pre-market prep live stream. youtu.be/4l4hMhVg5kA
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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
Same here regarding T2. Only thought on reflection was the long hold around/slightly above 60 before this occurs is a red flag... but idk. Also agree with you regarding NAP that "triggered" (or not) later. Again, perhaps its just getting better at ready the vol. I dont mind the loss, no one said its 100% win rate. Just trying to understand better, especially when to stay flat.
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Stephen J
Stephen J@StephenJ223624·
@bryce_schilling @AdamMancini4 After we opened Thursday night we sold back below 60 and closed back above at 6:50 est. I took that as type 2 as well.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Action slowed now & as posted work done in #ES_F: Same setup, everyday. 6822-24 Failed BReakdown was long trigger given live. Magnet was retest of the 6893 res shelf from yesterday. Its been highs all day Hold runner as we recharge. 6907, 6926, 6936, then 6954 magnet next week
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

Runner paying heavily as we run targets. Today's squeeze was caused by the same thing as always (#ES_F never changes): Failed Breakdown, this time of the 6822-24 shelf given at 9:43AM. The target/magnet was 6893, been here for 1hr. 6907, 6926, 6936 bonus. 6954 is next big magnet

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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Today started off eventful with an elevator down sell after yesterday's 120 point rally and retrace like this is normal. Last 2hrs have been chop, but lvls respecting. I posted bulls had to reclaim 6978 to rally & #ES_F tested 5x and rejected 6946-49, 6935, 6920-25 remain below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

With yesterday's 120 point long in the books to 7022 bonus target in #ES_F, now its the routine retrace/elevator down sell. 6990 failure triggered down to 6964 as posted and stuck here for 30mins. Bulls must recover 6978 to see 6990, 7002, 7006+. 6946-49 backtest remains below

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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
@RobMcCabe627263 @N7alphafarmer @AdamMancini4 Price returning to the level from below, dipping, returning etc. Go check out Adams methodology page for full breakdown. Also have some videos on YT channel if you need a visual. @es_fbd?si=7ze8IuzUAlxo02gx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@es_fbd?si=7ze…
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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
I got trapped too. Reviewing from my perspective, was good acceptance, I was just too eager with my entry, should have given it a few minutes above 78. Buying pressure was diminishing as we pushed thru the level and we never got an impulsive high energy reclaim. 10pt stop for me... ouch
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Nick
Nick@N7alphafarmer·
@AdamMancini4 I don't understand how to stop buying the bull traps. I thought for sure we had acceptance at 78 based on NL visuals.
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Neal T Bailey
Neal T Bailey@Nealosis·
@AdamMancini4 Come on man, are you really saying you were awake at 1:30-2:00 AM this morning to catch the bottom of this move?
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Runners keep paying. Now +110 points from the 6899 Failed Breakdown given to newsletter readers, and +80 points given free here 8am on the 6935 trap in #ES_F. 7002 was main target, hit, based for 2hrs. Bonus slate were 7006 (hit), 7014 (hit), 7022, 7036 next. Same supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

With work done, now we just hold runner in #ES_F & wait for the next bear trap to do it over. It couldn't of gone better. I tweeted 8am watch traps of 6935. We trapped it, ran. Targets were 6949, 6964, 6986, 7002. 7002 hit, here for 1hr. 7006, 7014, 7022 bonus. 86, 70=supports

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Michael
Michael@EvedHaMashiach·
@AdamMancini4 Wasn't there a valid FBD at 6949 How does one tell the difference between a fakeout like that which technically was a FBD and a real FBD with institutional buying?
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
There's 6923 next down & this is an "elevator down" sell in #ES_F. Failure of 6995 triggered lower as posted at 8am and one way traffic down since then. Little to do but wait for the Failed Breakdown/squeeze. 6935-40 must reclaim now to start to 6949, 6964+. 6911, 6895 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

After 6 days of non-stop green we are *finally* getting some red in #ES_F. As posted at 8am 6995 failure starts us lower with 6978, 6964, 6949 downside. 6935-40 below as newsletter readers know, and just tagged. Massive support 6949 must reclaim to see 64+. Sell 6923 below 6935

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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
Probably a good idea. Personally I don't plot every level (just the trade plan) so I don't have that on my chart, I will just use the recent structure thats there at 06 for entry level, but all levels are zones anyway so would likely enter around 07 or a little above. (Not an expert opinion)
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zwb
zwb@zwb44·
@TimothyBon194 @AdamMancini4 That’s what i was thinking, but then i guess would we have to see acceptance of 07 as it’s a major?
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
FOMC day in #ES_F & after a 125 point rally from Sundays 6911 Failed Breakdown (given live and in newsletter), little to do but ride runner & wait. 7017 1st support as posted, just hit exact. Its weaker now 7002 below (watch traps). 7036, 7044, 7060 next batch. We only sell<6995
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

Incredible 125 point run from Sunday's 6911 Failed Breakdown given live & in newsletter. Yesterday's targets given were 7007, 7014, 7022 (all hit). Bonus was 7033 in #ES_F. Plan today: Just let runner pay. 7017 (watch traps), 7002=supports. Sell<6995. 7036, 7044, 7060 next batch

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zwb
zwb@zwb44·
@AdamMancini4 Would 7006 have to clear aswell or is it far enough?
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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
@lrdbianchi @AdamMancini4 Traded the same. Can be un-nerving trading long this close to the highs but Adams system is rock solid.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Yesterday's target was 6998-7002 & #ES_F agrees: We hit it last evening at 11pm and have been stuck here/flagging with no volatility since. ES waiting on FOMC/earnings tomorrow No change: Hold runner. 6997, 6982=supports (watch traps), 7007, 7014, 7022 next. 82 fails, dip 6969
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

It took all day, but we hit yesterday's 6998-7002 target overnight in #ES_F. Yesterday's target were 6959, 6986, 6998-7002. We hit 11pm last night & have been basing since Plan today: Just hold runner. 6997, 6982 (watch traps)=supports. 7007, 7014, 7022 next. 82 fails, dip 6969

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MtnLiving
MtnLiving@OnTheHooch·
@eldnitj @AdamMancini4 I know a fair amount took the 04 from the NL. Sometimes we're not sure if AM is leaving that out intentionally (we hope so!) but it was easy money.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Another typical Sunday gap for #ES_F as it processes weekend tariff headlines. Bulls need to recover 6911 now to start any attempt higher back to 6925 which is a huge resistance shelf. Recovery there starts back to 6935, 6945+ Supports now 6890, 6872, 6864
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

Closing update #ES_F: Chop day but we got a great trade anyway. 6935-40 reclaim as posted targets 6955, 6964. 6964 is exact high of day. We even got the 6940 reclaim a second time. We are coiled for a huge move very soon. Newsletter out soon talking entries and targets for it

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?@louiepupdog·
@AdamMancini4 I am a monthly subscriber and I still have trouble determining when to jump in. It's around 29 now. De we wait til it's 55? What if it drops below 22. What if it goes to 04. Im sorry but my brain isn't getting it. Please enlighten?
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
On Wednesday, #ES_F longs triggered on the 6822 Failed Breakdown. Yesterday's targets were 6955 (hit), 6964 (hit) and we've been flagging out since yesterday highs 6935-40=today's support, probing below now. Bulls want to reclaim now to see 6955, 6964, 6970-74. 6918, 6904 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

Runners still working off Wednesday's 6822 Failed Breakdown. Per 4pm newsletter, 6933 Failed Breakdown was a long trigger in #ES_F. We swept it to 6926 o/n, recovered, +10 so far Plan today: 6935-40=support. 6955, 6959, 6964, 6970-74 (gap fill)=targets. 35 fails, dip 6914, 6904.

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Timothy Bond
Timothy Bond@TimothyBon194·
@MikeFeeley20 @AdamMancini4 I guess we were in at different times, bummer. I took first push thru 91->97->03. Will post replay video to Failed Breakdown YT channel later if interested.
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Adam Mancini
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4·
Overnight traders got all the action in #ES_F - now chop. 6864 was support posted 8am. Held. 6890 target & its the bull/bear line. Reclaim triggers up and we recovered, rallied 15, now back here for mid-day chop 6904, 6913 if it recovers again. 6864, 6855=supports (sell below)
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4

6890 is all that matters in #ES_F. 6864 support as posted, and it took us to 6890. We then back-tested 6890 exact from below 2x today. I posted we pop above, and we rallied 15 points. 6913 if ES can keep going. 6890 now support (watch traps of it now). 6864, 6855 below

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اكتشف

@PermaFader @AdamMancini4 @AndreeaSte4 @Uncultured_Man @ajayc11 @jpmanx03 @kevinc2114 @elonmusk