"
14.2K posts


@VOAChinese 一直在向右打方向盤往左轉,口頭講救經濟,私底下一直在摧毀經濟。只有自由巿場徹底崩潰,國有化才能夠全面接盤,重新完全控制十四億人礦的衣食住行。
中文

@GregPMarks @nytimes Strange logic ,why aren’t the Russians ashamed?when their families are slaughtering others families, they should feel ashamed and guilty for refusing shake hands with them.
English

Olga Kharlan, a four-time Olympic fencing medalist, was disqualified from the World Fencing Championships in Milan on Thursday after refusing to shake hands with her Russian opponent. nyti.ms/3OzvWLl
English
" أُعيد تغريده
" أُعيد تغريده

Why is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going exactly as planned and definitely not moving slowly, but rather moving better than many expected? However, the devil is in the details, which I intend to expose here, according to my humble opinion:
1. Before presenting my arguments, I would like to reiterate that I am a political consultant and by no means a military analyst. I am a layperson in the art of war, a simple and humble observer of the events in Ukraine, but I have read extensively about techniques, tactics, and military strategy because political strategy derives from them, which is practically one of the things I was involved in before the war in Ukraine.
Also, before presenting my arguments, I want us to superficially delve into what is happening on the front in terms of offense and defense, as they are defined by theorists of modern warfare:
1.1 The type of Russian defense. A combination of static defense (such as fortifications like the Maginot Line in WW2) and in-depth defense, meaning dispersed defense in multiple layers (defense lines), such as the Surovikin Line.
1.2 The type of Ukrainian attack. A combination of methodical attack and breakthrough attack (or as it has materialized in the collective mindset, the term Blitzkrieg).
2. Please take into consideration that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) do not have air superiority or air supremacy. Therefore, the Western doctrine of attack, which relies on air supremacy, cannot be implemented in the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
2.1 At the same time, when considering the idea that "the counteroffensive is moving slowly," please compare it unintentionally with the Kharkiv counteroffensive in September 2022.
I say unintentionally because in the field of communication sciences, this is called "shadow framing," which means what remains as residual memory and what we refer to every time we compare the unfolding of an event, the actions of a person, or the actions of the same person in situations that seem similar, but at a certain time interval between the two actions.
3. Therefore, "shadow framing" subconsciously dictates to you that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are not advancing quickly. No one would have known what "quick" means if they didn't have a benchmark to compare it to, and that benchmark is for many of those who have been following the war from the beginning, exactly what I mentioned above: the Kharkiv counteroffensive. However, what our own brain deceives us about is that it does not take into account several variables that have changed since then:
3.1 The Russian army did not have any kind of fortified defense line. At this moment, the Surovikin Line has up to 6 successive lines of defense in depth, some of which are fortified. So, the difference between Russian defense then and now is like the difference between hitting a wall at a speed of 80 km/h in a 1966 Lada or in a 2023 Premium SUV.
3.2 By having this time at their disposal, the Russians, by constructing the Surovikin Line, have put the Ukrainians in difficulty, which means they have to adapt their attack from what we saw almost daily in September 2022 as a breakthrough attack (Blitzkrieg) to a positional attack combined with limited breakthroughs. Why do they do this? To limit their losses and to not lose momentum.
3.3 In September 2022, by deceiving the Russians that the attack would be in Kherson, the Russians were forced to dislocate a large part of their troops to defend the only city that had both symbolic and strategic value: Kherson. The Ukrainians did this then to scatter their defense in Kharkiv, and they succeeded.
Today, the Russians know clearly that the attack will be in the southern front, and moreover, they have detonated the Khakovka dam in a terrorist style to slow down the Ukrainians from attacking them from two flanks.
3.4 In September 2022, HIMARS was still a novelty for the Russians, and they did not yet have a response to it. The destruction caused by HIMARS to the logistics centers on the Kharkiv front, such as Velyki Burluk, Kupyansk, and Izium, was decisive for the collapse of the front altogether.
Today, we have a completely different situation. It is true that now there is Shadow Storm, which works wonders, but the Russians have adapted. There are fewer large troop concentrations, the depots are smaller and dispersed (to make the use of Shadow Storms economically inefficient), and the logistics centers are also smaller and dispersed in multiple localities.
-----
Thus, what we see today is NOT comparable in any way to the counteroffensive in Kharkiv, to which the majority (including Western Generals) of people refer when they say "the counteroffensive is moving slowly."
If we start taking that into consideration, then let's see what we're looking at. The map that I have drawn here was done on May 5, almost 2 months ago.
"1" on the map represents what I call the "Southern Kherson Island," delimited to the south by the entrance to Crimea, to the east by the border of Zaporizhia Oblast, and to the north and west by the Dnieper River. The plans for this part have been complicated by the terrorist attack by Russia at the Nova Khakovka dam.
"2" on the map represents what I consider the main area that the Ukrainians want to conquer: the zone between Henichesk and Berdiansk.
"3" on the map represents the line of attack that would lead towards Berdiansk and then (or perhaps even before) towards the liberation of Mariupol.
I added the pink arrow because I said 2 months ago to pay attention in the direction of Bakhmut-Siversk-Kreminna.
-----
4. Taking all these things into consideration, what is Ukraine doing now and why do I believe that this counteroffensive is moving at an absolutely admirable pace, even exceeding expectations in certain areas of the front?
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) are using a hybrid model of elastic attack: between breakthrough and positional attacks (using artillery to strike deep and diminish Russian forces). In the initial phase, they attack a point, practically using raid-style attacks (rapid, with high force density and a predetermined time and space limit) to force the Russians to counter with artillery fire - thus exposing their positions and prompting them to send infantry and mechanized infantry to confront the Ukrainians - in what would normally be called "offensive defense."
When the Russians resort to these actions, abandoning their positions, the Ukrainians withdraw and utilize their artillery, IFVs, and tanks. The former is used to destroy Russian artillery batteries, where they still maintain numerical superiority, and the latter is employed to eliminate forces deployed for trench defense.
This strategy is gradually thinning out the defense in the Surovikin Line, which is why we see increasing penetrations of the Russian defense on a daily basis, reaching greater depths.
- The Battle for Bakhmut. Why is it important? Because, based on all the information I have from my sources in Ukraine, confirmed by Ukrainian and Western official sources, the Russians are still massing between 50,000 and 70,000 personnel in that direction. Why? Because Bakhmut is Putin's only victory, and he cannot afford to lose a locality that currently holds no strategic value (just as it did not have any before). Moreover, today Bakhmut is just a destroyed city, with no value for the Russian Federation, the sponsor state of terrorism.
These tens of thousands of troops are thus fixed by the Ukrainians, who have meanwhile taken the initiative, entered Bakhmut (as I wrote a few days ago, now confirmed even by Russian sources), and gained ground both to the north and south of it, forcing the Russians to remain fixated there.
Despite the lower number of artillery batteries, lower ammunition supplies, and the natural disadvantage of being on the offensive, despite the fact that Ukraine's air force is almost non-existent compared to Russia's, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have made progress today on all four axes in the south (Kherson, Vasylivka, Orekhiv-Tokmak, Velyka Novosilka-Berdiansk), but especially in the Bakhmut area, where they have crossed the Siversky Donets canal, are close to encircling Klischiivka, are already attacking Kumydivka and Andriivka to the south, and have territorial gains in the north.
Once again, read the last part: despite all the shortcomings mentioned above, the AFU is advancing at a rate that I honestly, as someone who closely follows the course of the war, did not expect!
-----
5. Then why did Zelensky say that he will show (speaking in the future tense) that this counteroffensive will prove to go well until the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11, and why did General Mark Milley say, "the counteroffensive is going well, but at a slower pace than expected"?
- Zelensky made a concise political statement because he doesn't have the ability to write thousands of words like I am doing here now. And...
- With all due respect to General Mark Milley, he was the one who stated that "in the event of an invasion, Kyiv will fall within 72 hours" (he made this statement on February 5). So, allow me to disagree with him this time.
Conclusion: We are not in Hollywood; we are talking about a real war, with people dying every day, with advancements by the AFU, and perhaps most importantly, without the AFU engaging with what I call "The Nine" Brigades - the ones specially prepared for this counteroffensive!
I have confidence in the Ukrainian Command because they haven't disappointed me so far, and I am absolutely sure - even though it may sound optimistic, I am used to being criticized for it - that Ukraine will reach the Sea of Azov by the end of this autumn, leading to the liberation of vast territories in the south.
I trust the Ukrainian Armed Forces!
I will reiterate, for those who may not know yet, my appeal for retweets, comments, or likes, even if they may not be pleasing, in order to reach as many people as possible with this information. Because we are also in an information war, and we are the ones fighting on it. It is up to us to win on this front, just as Ukraine will prevail on its territory!
Glory to Ukraine!

English

不懂就问、猫神求教:🙏
请大家告诉我:“君要臣死,臣不得不死”到底是法家思想,还是儒家思想?🙏🙏
一觉醒来看看评论区,有许多鄙视、奚落猫神之言,有让我重新读书的,有让 #章教授 送我书的,有让我闭嘴的,猫神顿时脸红心跳,源于我的一条推文被 #章天亮教授 批评
章教授认为:君要臣死臣不得不死,是法家主张。孔子说殷有三仁,微子去殷、箕子佯狂,孔子认为他俩并不比死谏的比干差。孔子说:天下有道则仕、无道则隐。道不行乘桴浮于海,从来也没主张君要臣死臣不得不死。我们不能把法家的主张扣在儒家头上、再以此为依据去批判儒家。
猫神回复:“君要臣死臣不得不死”是儒家核心思想观点,怎么会是法家?法家主张违法必究,刑必有典,君王赐死臣下是依据什么法律?
猫神回复:“君要臣死,臣不得不死”这句话出自孔子之口,孔子作为儒家学说的创始者,一直强调忠君思想,孔子曾说:“君待臣有礼,臣事上以忠”,后来这句话被后世逐渐演变成“君要臣死,臣不得不死”,到了汉朝,大儒 #董仲舒 正式将“忠君”纳入三纲五常的范畴,从此三纲五常思想便逐渐约束着人们的思想。
重点说明:猫神没有说“君要臣死,臣不得不死”这句话是孔子原话,只说它是儒家观点, #孔子 的话被后市演变而来,章教授认为这句话是法家观点,这是我和章教授之争,也是很多网友鄙视我的原因
中文

针对解放军最近的环台军演,台湾民众党主席柯文哲说,中国大陆是“媳妇熬成婆后再欺负媳妇”。zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china…
中文

中美关系严重冻结之际,马克龙通过此次访问表明了独立的欧洲立场,对与中国经济“脱钩”说不。他微妙地平衡了西方和中国对乌克兰战争的看法,并在台湾问题上保持沉默。
两国领导人都多次称赞“多极世界”,这是一种几乎不加掩饰的暗号,意思是一个不由美国主导的世界。nyti.ms/3mizDti
中文

@EmmanuelMacron Mama's boy was scared of the totalitarian regime and cried😂
English

@ChairOlek He knows the end of his political career is coming under the fury of french protesters .
English

Macron has started to use the term “the crisis in Ukraine”, which is promoted by Russian and Chinese propaganda. It’s not any “crises”, it’s Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. By such statements Macron undermines France’s credibility. politico.eu/article/emmanu…
English

#本周热读 三年前,中国国有企业赢得克罗地亚一个关键港口改造协议在华盛顿引起了警觉。据官员称,这一消息刺激华盛顿方面在幕后积极运作,利用外交、解密情报和其他手段说服北约盟友克罗地亚将中国拒之门外。这些行动最终阻止了中国的雄心。on.wsj.com/3m4IS0g
中文

@zhao_dashuai @SpeakerMcCarthy Perfect chance from China making people laugh three days
English

China will conduct a 2 day long practice blockade of the island of Taiwan.
Thank you @SpeakerMcCarthy for giving us this opportunity practice on liberating Taiwan.
Sunny with few clouds over the surrounding seas of Taiwan island.

English












