mock city

🚨 JAPAN RATE HIKE ALERT 🚨 🇯🇵 Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.00% tomorrow at 11 PM ET. That would mark the highest rate level in more than 30 years. Prediction markets are pricing the move at 99%. Since 2024, every rate hike in Japan has been followed by a 20%+ correction in $BTC. Tomorrow could matter more than most crypto traders realize.

$BTC - Update Addition: So lets dive a bit in the why: If you look at open interest you see it's now unwinding down pretty hard. Now where it gets interesting is the funding: It's now almost back in the green and rapidly diminishing since last update. Because what happens when a short is closed or liquidated? -> a market long. Now in the liquidations we haven't seen unreasonable big liquidation spikes, so I'd consider it mainly closing of shorts. That's constructive from a positioning perspective. The fuel of explosive upwards trusts is becoming less as there isn't evidence of many new shorts opening here & old ones capitulating. Now combine that with the H4 resistane block, the odds of a temporary local top are increasing. The main prerequisite for expansion down is longs doing the opposite and getting trapped chasing an extended move like this. Need spot buying either getting absorbed, or easing for that. That's essentially the inverse of what we've seen on the way up here. Market follows liquidity.

I called it once, I'll call it again

$BTC - Update Addition: So lets dive a bit in the why: If you look at open interest you see it's now unwinding down pretty hard. Now where it gets interesting is the funding: It's now almost back in the green and rapidly diminishing since last update. Because what happens when a short is closed or liquidated? -> a market long. Now in the liquidations we haven't seen unreasonable big liquidation spikes, so I'd consider it mainly closing of shorts. That's constructive from a positioning perspective. The fuel of explosive upwards trusts is becoming less as there isn't evidence of many new shorts opening here & old ones capitulating. Now combine that with the H4 resistane block, the odds of a temporary local top are increasing. The main prerequisite for expansion down is longs doing the opposite and getting trapped chasing an extended move like this. Need spot buying either getting absorbed, or easing for that. That's essentially the inverse of what we've seen on the way up here. Market follows liquidity.

🚨 BREAKING: 🇯🇵 JAPAN WILL HIKE INTEREST RATES TO 1.00% TOMORROW AT 11 PM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 31 YEARS MARKETS ARE PRICING IN A 99% CHANCE FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER HISTORICALLY, EVERY TIME JAPAN HIKES INTEREST RATES, $BTC DUMPS 25–30% THIS IS EXTREMELY BAD FOR MARKETS...

Thank you for the 5,000 followers. It feels good to know I was not forgotten, regardless of what lies ahead. Goodnight.