cg15wx

@WinterStorm2050 can i rub you up and down with a giant stick of butter and then fry you to a crisp golden brown to my enjoyment

@cycloneguy15 Oh hello dual opposing VHTs

Sinlaku may be on the cusp of an explosive intensification phase. A CDO with intense convection exhibiting a "comma" shape successfully wrapping upshear is often a precursor or sign of rapid pressure falls & subsequent acceleration of the tangential circulation.

cruel angel's sneakers. i may have put a little too much time and effort into this sorry

Despite some lingering shear aloft, highly favorable thermodynamic profiles thanks to inflow from the warm pool & an exceptional upper-air pattern characterised by widespread radial outflow may allow for Sinlaku to strengthen into one of the more notable storms in recent history.

Absolutely textbook westerly wind burst over the equatorial Pacific right now. A strong ERW (equatorial rossby wave) constructively interfering with an approaching MJO pulse has *majorly* stoked zonal wind anomalies, bolstered by twin TCs straddling near the equator.

Despite the LLC of 04W moving away from Chuuk, sfc obs on the island indicate fairly substantial pressure falls with a ~3mb drop over the course of 3 hours (likely higher due to aforementioned reason). The system will continue to organize & eventually RI in the open WPAC.

Very interesting ''hybrid'' structure with TC Vaianu right now. Despite marginal (25-26c) SSTs, cooler temperatures aloft & briefly lowered shear associated with an approaching upper-level trough are allowing for convective organization to slowly improve.

There'll likely be a brief pause in strengthening as upper troughing from the northeast impinges upon the circulation, briefly enhancing midlevel shear before the system exits into a highly-favorable environment characterised by generally weak easterlies & ample divergence aloft.

90Ws gyric circulation appears to be consolidating as deep convection blossoms across the northern end of its envelope. This will favor the development of a tightly-wound vorticity maxima over the coming day or two, kickstarting a gradual intensification phase as it drifts NW.

@oldscarf1stweek Kinsley KS

Given only the attached 12z observed data from the morning of a severe weather event, where would you target for the b*st chance of seeing a tornado No spoiling the day if you recognize it. More maps in replies. Answers after dinner time ET

With the two SPAC TCs fighting persistent shear, attention now turns to the WPAC — where the first intense NHEM storm looks increasingly possible by late next weekend. 1/5

@oldscarf1stweek Bethel Acres, OK

Given only the attached 12z observed data from the morning of a severe weather event, where would you target for the b*st chance of seeing a tornado No spoiling the day if you recognize it. More maps in replies. Answers after dinner time ET

@xLunarSpark Anathema

I'm going for a top 15! If you guess it, I'll include you in the video :D

@JeremyWx6450 CBs still generally struggling to wrap past upshear quadrants due to some lingering moderate shear (LL flow is westerly while mid-upper flow easterly) but should still become a major before upwelling takes effect

@cycloneguy15 thoughts on maila?

Don't you love it when a rapidly-intensifying hurricane with frequent VHTs lapping through all 4 quadrants isn't given an official name by the local RSMC... With a tightly-wound core & exceptional upper-air pattern, further strengthening into a major hurricane is expected.

The resurgence of a strong, propagating MJO and developing El Niño over the next few weeks changes the playing field a bit for seasonal tornado expectations. Forecasts calling for a prolonged dead period in mid/late April and early May are in serious jeopardy.

Nevertheless, the short-term decrease in shear should still allow for intensification into a significant, major hurricane before upwelling really takes effect past F60

Forgot to mention here, but one thing that limits the temporal extent of strengthening is upwelling of hostile cold waters. Despite an incredibly deep (>150m) thermocline, nearly a week of an intense vortex stalling will almost always result in a ridiculous amount of upwelling

The final nail in the coffin for the dissipating -ENSO will be into Late Apr-Early May as a highamp MJO orbits into the WHEM. A large trade wind reversal will further enhance the DKW(s), later forcing much of the subsfc warmth upwards & pushing the atmosphere into El Niño.

temporarily weakened VWS should enhance strengthening when combined with the exceptionally favorable thermodynamic profiles at play. Fairly classic evolution of a storm developing through mod. shear/high SST that often progresses into an eventual RI phase upon shear lowering.

Despite battling moderate VWS, recently-named Maila exhibits structural changes indicative of a budding RI phase. For one, convective organization has markedly improved w/ ''curling'' convection outlining a robust curved band. The subsequent environmental modification and...