David Settle, CMT

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David Settle, CMT

David Settle, CMT

@davidsettle

Market Technician. Active Trader. Passionate about Investor Education. Part-time 🏀 coach. Father to FOUR boys. Co-founder of @MarketScholars 👨‍💻🎙️📈💰👨‍🎓

USA انضم Ekim 2010
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David Settle, CMT
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle·
03/12/26 – View tonight’s #MarketOutlook from @MarketScholars 🎥 youtube.com/watch?v=L3cZx5… Discussed: 🛢️ Oil surged nearly 9% on Strait of Hormuz tensions 📉 Semiconductors and cyclicals led the selloff 📊 Market breadth deteriorated beneath the indexes ⚡ Volatility spiked as traders hedged geopolitical risk 🌍 Intermarket signals from oil, yields, and the dollar $SPX $QQQ $IWM $DIA $RUT $VIX $TNX $XLK $XLF $XLE $GLD $BTC $CL $USO $XLE $CVX $XOM $SMH $SOXX $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $DXY
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David Settle, CMT
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle·
ALL $SPX corrections (extended runs below the 200-day SMA) and bear markets (extended runs below the 200-week SMA) start with a pullback that FAILS in its bounce back up to new highs. That bounce generally hits 5% *plus or minus a percentage or two
EzA@adamestero

@davidsettle All large corrections and bear mkts look like a dip at first. 200 dma is resistance now

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David Settle, CMT
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle·
Over the past week, I've gradually moved into the camp of extended run below the 200-day SMA as we are now >4.5% BELOW the 200-day SMA as well as below the bulk of the past year's trading volume acting as a significant resistance making it likely that our next 5% rally fails at that resistance as well as 30-day or 50-day SMAs $SPX
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Dr. J@SexyLibertarian

@davidsettle Dave Of the 2 U think a short lived move under the 200? Or extended bear

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David Settle, CMT
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle·
This is the only time since $SPX became a 500-stock index that both the momentum and near-term lines finished at extreme lows for 3 straight weeks. It's working on a fourth this week. All signs on this chart suggest we're heading to a correction.
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David Settle, CMT
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle·
This is the first time since July 2007 that the momentum line dropped to extreme lows as the near-term line dropped out of bullish territory into bearish territory in the same month on the monthly Market Forecast chart for $SPX
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David Settle, CMT
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle·
If this doesn’t turn into a correction (protracted run below the 200-day SMA), then this would already be the biggest drop below the 200-day SMA of any pullback $SPX
brock@brock42514321

@davidsettle We're working our way toward an asterisk 😂🤣

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David Settle, CMT
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle·
These are all the times $SPX has dipped below the 200-day SMA in the past 20 years (with how far it dropped below and how long it stayed below). I put an asterisk by the CORRECTIONS and 2 asterisks by the one BEAR MARKET - every other time is just a PULLBACK. Can you see the differences? What do you think we have currently based on the current numbers? 2026: -4.16% -- 8 days *2025: -13.5% -- 44 days 10/2023: -2.85% -- 8 out of 9 days 3/2023: -1.97% -- 7 out of 10 days *2022: -17.04% -- 224 out of 251 days *2020: -26.49% -- 87 out of 89 days *Q4 2018: -14.76% -- 117 out of 123 days *2015-16: -10.21% -- 111 out of 140 days 10/2014: -2.29% -- 7 days 11/2012: -1.95% -- 7 days *2011: -14.18% -- 99 out of 106 days *2010: -8.24% -- 66 out of 79 days **2007-08: -39.53% -- 382 out of 392 days 8/2007: -3.03% -- 11 out of 26 days 2006: -2.88% -- 29 out of 58 days
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David Settle, CMT
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle·
@DrBob_TDA You definitely practice late-game situations towards the end of practice every day. It might not be this exact scenario but you make up as many as you can over the course of the season. It's why I was 27-15 in games decided by 6 points or less in my 5 years.
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Dr Bob
Dr Bob@DrBob_TDA·
@davidsettle knowing you like I do you would’ve probably been coaching that from the first of the season so that when it came down to the nitty-gritty, they already had it ingrained in their mind. It’s kinda like knowing that most of the losses occur below the 200 day moving average.
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David Settle, CMT
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle·
Here’s my take on the Duke-UCONN play because I’ve been in this scenario before and this is how we played it out. You have 10 seconds left with one timeout. You don’t have possession. You don’t need to get the ball across the timeline because there’s only 10 seconds left. But you can’t communicate that to your players because you don’t want to use your last timeout yet because you want it in case you get trapped. You inbound the ball and get it into the middle like any press break. Once we got the doubled in the middle of the court with 7 seconds left. THAT’s where we call timeout. But, the coach had to be ready to call it the player will instinctively try to get out of the trap. Now, you get to inbound the ball on the sideline (which is the goal) where it’s harder to trap and easier to get it into the frontcourt away from UCONN’s basket. But, because of your timeout, you can also communicate now that if we they do get it into the backcourt that we don’t need to cross the timeline - that they HAVE to foul. To use your space to play keep away. That was bad not using your last timeout in those last 10 seconds
NCAA March Madness@MarchMadnessMBB

OH MY GOODNESS 😱 UCONN LEADSSSS UNBELIEVABLE #MarchMadness

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David Settle, CMT
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle·
You could also throw in an additional qualifier: Either less than 10 days and/or less than 5% drop below the 200-day SMA
Bert@DrewbertDoobert

@davidsettle If you don't get out in 10 days...you ain't getting out...

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David Settle, CMT
David Settle, CMT@davidsettle·
This is a similar message we’ve been discussing at @MarketScholars this week
TraderHC@traderhc

$VIX at 31 and everyone's panicking. But the vol surface is telling a different story. The term structure stayed in contango. VIX3M sitting below spot $VIX by over 6%. That's the options market saying "I'm hedging, not fleeing." Implied vol is running nearly double realized vol right now. 91st percentile gap. Someone selling this fear is about to get paid. When $VIX spikes above 30 but the curve refuses to invert, it resolves lower about 75% of the time within a month. $SPY closed right on its session low at 633. I think we're looking at 650-660 inside two weeks. Backwardation is the real danger signal. We don't have it. Does anyone disagree with this read?

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Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily
Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily@bluechipdaily·
I stop looking for oversold signals when $SPY loses the 200-sma. When $SPY gets oversold (oscillators) in an uptrend over the 200-sma, I look for potential turning points to buy stocks breaking out. When $SPY loses the 200-sma, oversold signals have little meaning.
Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily@bluechipdaily

To counter what I have seen often recently: Oversold is not a buy signal. A magazine cover is not a buy signal. A buy signal is when the chart gives an actual technical buy signal, which is most often on strength - not because it's oversold and not because of a magazine cover.

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Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert@jasongoepfert·
Barring a yuuuuge rally into the close, the S&P 500 will have risen only 3 of the first 12 weeks of the year. That's tied for the worst ever.
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