itsgold
566 posts
There's 6789 as we approach of the end of a grinding mid day chop window in #ES_F. Bears control until bulls start recovering some lost supports. 6806 could start some momentum but 6818-22 must recover as posted (tested 2x) to flip control back for the day.
6781, 6767 next down
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
I posted 11pm-2pm was mid-day chop window and #ES_F taking it very seriously stuck around 6806 for 2 hours now. 6818-22 remains resistance as posted (rejected there 2x exact). Bulls must recover with force to see 6832, 6838. Bears control below 6789, 6781, 6764 below
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@ashwagamma @AdamMancini4 and like clockwork... my feed is flooded with calls for a crash.
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@AdamMancini4 Nice late day fbd backtest+microfbd 👌🏼have a good wknd sir 🫡🙏🏼
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Volatility has made for excellent trading the last 4 days in #ES_F. After hitting 6805 support, I posted 6815-17 reclaim triggers long. Targets were 6838, 6847, 6857, all hit. Protect gains now. 6868, 6889 backtests incoming next week
38 reclaims to pop higher, same supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There's 6857 hit exact in #ES_F (6856.75). After hitting 6805, I posted 6815-17 recovery triggers long. Targets were 6838 (hit), 6847 (hit), 6857 (hit). Easy 40 points 6868, then 6884-89 are above. It was loss of 6884-89 that started the sell. Recovery starts next macro trend up
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@ashwagamma @AdamMancini4 did you switch to March contract today or you will do next week Monday?
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@AdamMancini4 First V shaped 'bottom' I've seen in awhile. Its almost too perfect.
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One way traffic in #ES_F and 0 to do but ride runner. 6838 was support as posted (held exact), with 6842 triggering long. I warned the trend leg was close & we're trending. Targets given were 6868-65 (hit), 6884 (hit), 6899 (hit), 6910-15 (almost)
Then 6931, then all time highs
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There's another target hit at 6899 and as posted 2hrs ago, trend leg was close. 6838 was support as posted (held exact), with 6842 triggering long in #ES_F. Targets given were 6868-65 (resistance, then held as support many times), 6877, 6884, 6899. Ride runner 6910-15, 6931 next
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@ashwagamma @AdamMancini4 Looking for a breather before FOMC. Great way to close out November!
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@AdamMancini4 that was very nice pop at the open yesterday, 8pt long for holiday session is awesome. Hopefully there's a 47-51 push in the cards for another profit take 😇
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Extreme low vol holiday trading, but lvls respecting perfectly, hold runner in #ES_F. Ystd at 8am I posted 6824 was support (held exact) with 6831 reclaim triggering long to 6842. Hit. 6831 then support as just posted, held for 10 points
6847-51, 6859+ if ES wants more. Sell<24
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Futures reopened & Thanksgiving week push continues, +300 points from initial entry 1 week ago. At 8am ystd I posted 6824 was support (held 9x) with 6831 reclaim triggering to 6842. At 6842 now. 6847-51, 6859, 6877 if #ES_F wants more 6831, 6824=supports (weak now, watch traps)
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Levels respecting well but we remain in deep OPEX chop - don't overtrade and *always* take profits level to levevl. 6542 to 6593=full chop in #ES_F with 6572 mid-pivot. 6542 was support and we held nicely. I posted 64 reclaim to pop, and just hit 6572.
Same upsides. Sell<6542
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Traders getting a lesson in OPEX in #ES_F - as warned, don't overtrade. 250 trading days a year, 0 need to gamble in OPEX noise 6573 support given 8am, held exact for 26 points, put in multiple good traps. 6542 next down, just hit. Bulls must reclaim 64 to pop. 6530, 6519 below
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@AdamMancini4 watching for that squeeze... so many puts in the $$$... be a shame if something happened.
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OPEX whipsaw underway, but levels respecting well in #ES_F. 6573 support posted at 8am. It held exact for 26 points after my post, then trapped below, recovered. *Do not overtrade on OPEX days*.
6573, 6552, 6542 remain supports (sell below). 6605, 6622+ next when ES is ready
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
OPEX underway as #ES_F whipsaws. 6573 1st support given 8am held *exact* but ES ultimately still held up by the overnight Failed Breakdown of the 6:10PM ~6540 low & 6553 reclaim, given to newsletter readers 6573, 6552, 6542 remain supports (sell below). 6605, 6622+ next targets
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@AdamMancini4 Great job in the NL! Excellent levels, and the best trade I've had so far this week. Looking forward to next week's NL!
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Incredible follow through all targets have been run in #ES_F. This is exact Deja Vu from last Friday. 6685 was support, we swept it. I posted 6705 reclaim triggers long with 6712 1st target (hit), 6728-32 2nd (hit), 6746-51 (hit). Just ride runners now like last week
64, 77 next
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Good mini squeeze for #ES_F and there's 6712 1st target hit. I posed 6685 was support with 6705 reclaim triggering up. We swept 6685, recovered, then reclaimed 6705. Targets were 6712 (hit), 6728-32, 6746 (1st big shelf). ***No greed**, protect gains, leave runner. Same supports
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Huge follow through in #ES_F and its same cycle over and over for those who understand it. I warned 9:45AM (low of day) to wait for the Failed Breakdown to start squeeze. 6605 reclaim was trigger. Targets given were 6623, 6631, 6652, 6667 All hit.
Hold runner. 6679, 6688 bonus
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
It doesn't get cleaner than that & its because #ES_F runs same cycle over & over. I posted 10mins ago at the lows little to do but wait for a Failed Breakdown to start next squeeze. Trigger was recovery of 6605. We got it. Targets given were 6616, 6623, 6631. All hit. 6652 above
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@AdamMancini4 worked nice, kept it small, kept it tight, end the day with the win on the macro fbd! 😇 next week should be mighty fun 👍
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Day's like today are inherently anomalies. Nobody can predict when a Presidential Tweet will tape bomb #ES_F -2% (unless one has top called for weeks). Its a 1x a year lottery. Our job is to react & know how ES behaves afterwards (snap back squeeze, on major reclaim to backtest)
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Price continues to like the 6675 level. I posted to watch for sweeps and recoveries of 6660. We lost 6660, sold down to 6641, recovered. #ES_F ran back to ~6675 again, and dipped. Bulls must recover that 6675-80 to start what will be a violent snap-back rally. Not before then
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@ashwagamma @AdamMancini4 I would be more aggressive on longs if it wasn't a Friday. oh well.
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@AdamMancini4 small small add at 28 since the zone is holding. fun stuff. headlines i suppose!
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*Finally* some headlines to get things moving in #ES_F & setup new entries. Today's final target was 6805-07, was tagged it, got tariff headlines and broke down the week long range
Bulls want to recover 6728 now to work up to 6736, 6742, then 6757. 6712-15 is next down, then 94
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterday & today has been as precise as action gets in #ES_F as we fill the range. 6774 reclaim got us long, given yesterday. Targets posted 8am were 6794 (hit), 6805-07 range res. We hit 6806, sold. 0 to do but hold runner. 82, 74=supports for trapping. 6816+ when we breakout
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@AdamMancini4 slowly and then all at once. locked in more at 63, wait for nfp tomorrow now😇 thank you sir 🫡
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The day after a big trend day (+76 points from yesterdays 6699-6705 long) in #ES_F is always a slog and as warned 8am, it takes many hours to digest a big run. 6745 was 1st big back-test support as posted, held nicely.
6763-65 1st up, almost here. Big shelf. 6771, 6776+ above.
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
The process of #ES_F digesting the 76 point run off 6699-6705 support yesterday continues. As warned, this process takes hours. 6745 was key support posted at 8am and 1st major backtest of many. Held exact, bounced 10 points 6763-65 above & 1st hurdle for bulls. 6736, 6723 below
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@ashwagamma @AdamMancini4 Typically slow tape is bullish... but with FOMC and rollover. I'm expecting chop the rest of the week.
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@AdamMancini4 this guy fell on the left tail of the normal distribution of fbds😅kinda low quality flush, but still took it earlier. cut some size down to tiny now with so much time passed. let small size work it out with the chop!
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Levels continue to respect & after 6 days of upside, #ES_F is resting ahead of FOMC tomorrow. After 6681-83 failed this morning, I posted 6666 was support. ES can't agree more: Tested to the tick, stuck here 3 hours. Little to do.
6676, 6681-83 if ES wants more. 56, 48-51 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Levels acting precisely as we cool-off ahead of FOMC tomorrow in #ES_F. The more red ahead of FOMC, the better. 6681-83 was support. I said if it failed, we dip to 6666. 6666 held to the tick, bounced ~10 points, just re-tested/trapped No change: 76, 81-83 above. 48-51 below
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@AdamMancini4 Thanks for the all the hard work in the NL. I closed out my runners from sub 6500 finally for a tidy 100+ pt profit!
Wishing you all a wonderful rest of the week.
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Now +64 points from yesterdays 6530 Failed Breakdown, tweeted live 338PM. Everyday the same for me in #ES_F: 1) I don't short (have not shorted once since April low) 2) I wait for a deep flush then planned Failed Breakdown. 3) I manage lvl to lvl, leave runner. 4)Repeat next day
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
~6587 1st bonus target hit, incredible follow though. Today was a very routine CPI in #ES_F, with the CPI initial Failed Breakdown under the O/N low. I explictly gave 3 targets: 6553, 6565, 6578. All hit. Bonus set were 6587 (hit), 6600 0 to do but hold runner. 65 micro support
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@AdamMancini4 Adam I hope you get well soon. Appreciate all the work you put into the NL!
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Lots of movement to go nowhere in #ES_F as we consolidate, but lvls/plan tracking well. I posted at 7am that 6443 was support, with 6452 reclaim triggering to 6461+. We sold to 6443 *to the tick* recovered 53, hit 6461.
Protect gains. 6467, 6474 bonus. Leg down if 6443 fails now
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After Fridays squeeze, yesterday was cool off day. 6461 support as posted at 7am, it held exact & set low of day. I posted sell<6461 & #ES_F then lost it late day & sold to 6430 Plan today: 6452 must recover to see 6461 (big res), 6466, 6474+. 6443=support, fail sees 6429, 6407
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@AdamMancini4 As a subscriber, I know the Failed Breakdown. What is the other trade you take?
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After years of loss as a new trader, my 1st green year was intentional: I decided on a Dec 31st that I would take *only trades I pre-planned & it had to be 1 of 2 setups (which I still trade)*. Almost overnight, I traded 80% less, win rate rose & loss-driving FOMO trades fell
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@ashwagamma @AdamMancini4 Should see more volatility into end of month. Its more probable you'll see more back and fill all the way into FOMC... everyone's looking for that rate cut.
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@AdamMancini4 lol yessir please don't breakout, we need a Sunday trade😇
and in general wouldn't it be far more exciting if this market can fill out the flag into the fall!
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There's precise tag of my 6415 final target in #ES_F. Original long was 2:50PM yesterday on the Failed Breakdown of 6344. Todays targets given at 8am were 6397, 6407, 6415. 1hr ago, I posted 6397 reclaim triggers back to 6415.Done
Hold runner for breakout. 6429, 6439, 6452 bonus
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
4 targets were given for today at 8am, as follow up targets from yesterdays 6344 2:50PM Failed Breakdown: 6387, 6397, 6407, 6415. #ES_F came 2 points shy from the 6415 final. Its been an incredible run, now we restart cycle 6387-89, 6376 next supports. 97 reclaim sees 6407, 6415
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@ashwagamma @AdamMancini4 Wouldn't be surprised if 33 doesn't hold next time. I thought the low volatility towards the end of the session was especially odd.
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@AdamMancini4 o boy, now 33 fbd is gonna be our new range trade setup? a.g.a.i.n. 😅
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Worth noting its lots of action to go nowhere in #ES_F: 6333 has been the magnet all week. We were there Monday morning, Tuesday morning, yesterday morning, & back now. We are in a huge, multi-week consolidation.
6344=res and above there is 6353, 6357+. 6315 next support
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@AdamMancini4 Another profitable day in the books. Looking forward to the next NL!
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Huge payout on the long and there's 6327-33 1st bonus target hit in #ES_F. That's 33 points from 6295 support given at 8am (which held exact) and 77 points from our original long trigger on the 6257-60 Failed Breakdown Friday afternoon
Hold runner. 6345, 6361 next batch of bonus
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Perfect follow through and all targets hit as Friday's 6257-60 reclaim long continues to pay (we also got it at 6pm last night). I then posted at 8am that 6295 was support to keep 6305, 6311, 6319 live. We held 6295 exact, ran targets in #ES_F Let runner go. 6327-33, 6345 bonus
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