Eddy

Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish: - $JBL pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess. - More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more partners being developed. “When the timing is right, we will bring those details to the market.” CEO said it’s not just Win/Glasgow. I’m already confident in Win Semi scaling capacity, given they’re critical in SpaceX / $AVGO supply chains already. But this derisks those capacity ramp even more. Just not publicly disclosed yet. - tremendous executive credibility and experience with U.S. markets, as well as strong M&A experience Flagged M&A in regards to new board members, which we guessed based on their backgrounds. - “Production orders are imminent from our lead SATCOM”… So that’s volume ramp for space - U.S dual listing progressing smoothly No exact timeline, my personal guess was around late Q3 or Q4. Probably after June board meeting, they’ll announce timing since that’s when new board members come in. - “Viewing the ecosystem vendors as competitors is the wrong way to go about it in supercycles where demand far outstrips supply.” Too much demand in photonics - “Over the last five months, there's been a rapid increase in the Photonics pipeline as well” Basically 77% growth pipeline came from photonics (which validated thesis about cpo/pluggable growth vectors for sivers) TLDR: We moved from “can sivers get customers this small and can they compete with $LITE?” To execution eg. “how much can sivers even produce to feed into each supercycle” as they’re volume ramping while demand > supply.” To me that’s very positive if anything they make gets bought. Also there’s likely to be a lot of TAM expansion in the photonics space post-M&A as well as more ongoing hyperscaler supplier qualifications hinted. Again, revenue pipeline surged 77% in just their quarter (5m) largely from photonics… over the entire company’s history. As CPO scales up h2 2027 onwards, I’m expecting the revenue numbers to look like an exponential curve.

Only thing to look at with $SIVE earnings is forward growth. Nobody cares about pre-development contract earnings from 2025 or last quarter, especially for qualification cycle optical players. Having 77% growth of opportunity pipelines (revenue volume ramp projections), to $799m In a quarter is absolutely incredible growth. And, I’d expect to see that continue compounding. “The company continues to anticipate several volume production starts within AI data centers” (photonics/lasers). Is also very positive and validates the thesis about volume ramp for photonics. Now next thing to look at is earnings call transcript, once they’re indexed, which is the most important signal of what’s to come. Overall, very positive.

$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me. Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share. I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B. And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects. I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive. As in the part few months we’ve discovered: > AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in > Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up > $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce) > O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE > $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes > New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE > $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source) > information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices > information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers. > Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators. > new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium > $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers > Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source > Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc) > pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report > Nasdaq listing expected soon > MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers > M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area > $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report. > $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector. All of this market research was done before earnings. Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done. I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward. Only thing I’m looking at are: > TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments > volume ramp expectations from existing companies > Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts > any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables

富途的处罚下来了📰 富途控股有限公司：中国证监会拟对富途合计罚款18.5亿元人民币 富途控股（FUTU）有限公司发布公告称，公司收到了中国证券管理委员会及其深圳分局的调查通知及行政罚款预通知函。CSRC 指出，中国大陆和中国香港的某些富途实体未经取得所需许可或批准，在中国大陆开展证券业务、公共基金销售业务及期货业务，违反了《证券法》、《证券投资基金法》及《中华人民共和国期货及衍生品法》。CSRC 拟命令相关公司纠正或停止此类行为，没收非法收益并处以罚款，拟罚款总额约为 18.5 亿元人民币（约合 2.71 亿美元）。此外，CSRC 拟对公司创始人兼首席执行官李华先生处以个人罚款 125 万元（约合 183,575 美元）。富途控股称，拟议的罚款仍待进一步程序及 CSRC 最终决定。

New RWA perp listing: $FUTU ( Futu Holdings ) with up to 5x leverage. Earn 1.2x trading points until May 29, 23:59 UTC.

Morgan Stanley says $FUTU could “overshoot on the downside” after China’s CSRC crackdown. Mainland clients are <20% of assets but may have driven ~20% of revenue and 20%-30% of profit. Existing mainland accounts must be closed within 2 years, with only sells/withdrawals allowed.

I said on last Friday’s Futurum Equities Podcast that $POET was one photonics name I would not touch due to management red flags and paid influencer promotion. Today it’s down 45% after $MRVL canceled the Celestial AI orders due to a breach of confidentiality.

Great to be featured in the Wall Street Journal today talking about the $CBRS IPO. Cerebras is attacking one of the biggest bottlenecks in the AI economy like running massive models faster, cheaper and more efficiently as the world shifts from training to inference deployment. But the difference between a great company and a great stock is entry price. At a ~$70B valuation, Cerebras is already being priced like a major AI infrastructure winner before I've even seen multiple quarters of execution.

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$NVDA AI chip business is more than 400x larger than $CBRS and still growing nearly as fast. Meanwhile, Cerebras is trading around 134x trailing revenue which is more than 5x Nvidia’s multiple.