FPL_Thomas🇮🇪

FPL Rank History 2017/18 1,028,248 2018/19 68,130 2019/20 476,917 2020/21 173,122 2021/22 40,816 2022/23 38,905 2023/24 3,433 2024/25 797

@AlllChelsea10 Gl man!

@fpl_thomas__ Accidently brought in Saka while trying to take the SS of the transfer💔 Goodluck bro

#fpl #GW34 #FPLCOMMUNITY OVR 925 Fernandes(C) 4FT GW35

Earlier in the season I wrote a piece on Free Hit risk and Correlated Variance (CoVar) that gained quite a bit of traction. I’m on Free Hit again this week, so I’ve revisited it with some added thoughts and a focus on this gameweek. If you haven’t read the first one, I’ll link it below as it’s worth checking out first. New topics: • Field Correlated Variance (CoVar) • Expected value vs variance trade-off • Applying CoVar to Free Hit GW34 Field Correlated Variance (CoVar) CoVar only really works when we consider the field, meaning what everyone else is picking. On a Free Hit, we can get a good read on ownership for that specific gameweek and identify which players are likely to be highly owned across both Free Hit and non-Free Hit teams. That gives us a short-term ownership picture we can use to make better decisions. If our aim is to maximise upside, we should look to differentiate from these popular picks to some extent (more on this later). This reduces our exposure to highly owned players whose returns offer limited rank gains. Beyond that, we can also actively target against the field. For example, if a defence is expected to be highly owned, we could instead move to a lower-owned attacker from the opposing team with strong projected points (EV), creating a CoVar play against the field. This can be pushed further by doubling up on that attack to increase upside. Expected value vs variance trade-off Following on from this, it’s not as simple as just picking low EO, high EV players against the field. The field is generally trying to maximise EV by targeting strong defenders against weak attacks and strong attackers against weak defences, which makes going against it difficult. So should we sacrifice some EV for higher upside? In most cases, standard CoVar stacking can be achieved without sacrificing much EV. However, with Field CoVar, more EV typically has to be sacrificed, but the upside is also greater. The amount you trade off depends on your risk appetite, your current rank, and how comfortable you are with downside. That said, some players simply have too much EV to ignore and remain essential, regardless of ownership. For context, I’m currently ranked 415th. My season priority was to finish inside the top 10k, then push for top 1k and then top 100. It’s about the digits for me, I value finishing 9,999 the same as 1,001. Because of that, I’m willing to take on more CoVar/Risk with this Free Hit than I would if I felt at risk of dropping outside the top 10k. Applying CoVar to Free Hit GW34 Best types of CoVar/risk in order: 1. Low ownership captaincy with little or no EV sacrifice 2. Multiple defenders from the same team 3. Avoiding opposing attackers and defenders 4. Combining attackers and defenders from the same team (especially set-piece takers with set-piece threats) As discussed, these approaches are most effective when ownership is low. This isn’t as CoVar-friendly a week as I’d like. With Gabriel, Salah, Bruno, Bowen and possibly Virgil looking like locks, it’s difficult to build CoVar around them without sacrificing a chunk of EV. For example, tripling up on Liverpool’s defence feels suboptimal given how strong their midfield options project this week. The same applies to Arsenal, where beyond Gabriel and Raya, Saliba doesn’t project particularly well. I’m even slightly tempted by a Spurs triple defensive stack, as crazy as that sounds, but Solanke also projects well, which works against it. CoVar/Risk I like on Free Hit GW34: • Salah Captain • Porro + Danso + Kinsky • Xavi + Solanke • Raya + Gabriel + Saliba • Tarkowsk + Keane • Triple Liverpool attack Thank you for reading! Special mention to @Spoish and @AnalystNik11, who I spoke to while putting this together. Both are well worth a follow. @AnalystNik11 even has an FPL model, with a CoVar setting available on the solver.

#gw33 #fpl #fplcommunity 132 points GW Rank 76,782 OVR 2,148 ⬆️ 925

DCL MY GOAT!!!!!!

#GW33 #FPL #FPLCommunity OVR 2,148 Haaland(C) Gabriel to Hill Fernandes to Enzo Bench Boost Active 4FT GW34

@FPLMichael_ Derby

@fpl_thomas__ You missed the county.

West brom Charlton Man city Huddersfield Man utd Bolton

@AeselFC On 5FT, are you considering bruno to enzo assuming NOR is fit?

I'm considering my options for DGW33, and I'm confident that it will be between these two options: 5 FTs, 0.4m ITB A) Gabriel & Thiago → Hill & DCL B) Gabriel → Gudmundsson I'm leaning towards B) to have triple Leeds defence for DGW33 & BUR (H) GW35, keeping Thiago.

This season has a madrid derby ucl final written all over it.

#GW32 #FPL #FPLCommunity 58 points GW Rank 2,553,334 OVR 2,035 🔽 2,148

The scenery of golf courses is unbelievable #masters

THE UFC WHITE HOUSE PROMO VIDEO JUST DROPPED! 🔥

I Am Maximus🐴!

@FplOmar31 Grboooo

GET INNN

x3 brighton, double def and Gross starting while Mitoma isnt. Big 90 minutes ahead.

#GW32 #fpl #FPLCOMMUNITY OVR 2,035 Fernandes(C) WC Active 5FT GW33

@FPL_Sarr29 mitoma

@fpl_thomas__ I’m stuck on a midfielder.

13/15 WC locked.

@fplcopilot 22600

Comment below your team ID Top 3 chip strategies for your team will be suggested Example comment: 2498301 I will try to answer to as many as **humanly** possible today