Arya Sripadrao

$TSLA

@smartertrader @pennycheck

Avex…. Squeeze candidate

$AVEX runner

@Gubloinvestor Post it on Monday when the market is open. Don’t post it over the weekend.

@SEetnForgeet @ShardiB2

The Elmet Group Co. $ELMT , a U.S.-based provider of precision-engineered components and advanced high-energy systems (tungsten/molybdenum parts and high-power microwave products), plans to IPO on April 23, 2026, priced at $12.00–$14.00 per share. It serves aerospace, defense, semiconductor, medical, and energy markets, focusing on domestic supply chain security. hmmmm… #ELMT #IPO #DefenseTech #AdvancedManufacturing

@aleabitoreddit Lol. Whale activities! 🐳

@hypedplugarya I was thinking about raising funds just to buy out this company... But thought it was too much of a hassle so just decided to post this vulnerability.

A Guide by Serenity: How to Cripple the Western Hyperscaler buildout with just $170m. Just take over Nippon Chemical (4092) with $169m! For InP substrates, you need: Indium and High Purity Phosphorus. Thought $AXTI was a bottleneck? NCI is the bottleneck of the bottleneck. NCI is actually the leader of the high purity red phosphorus chokepoint holding 26-27% of the market share (Rasa has less share, then the rest is China). And they export to $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX that need it to make InP substrates. 
So… if you have $160m to spend to acquire NCI (plus Rasa as smaller capacity), you can remove the leading Western world’s production of 6N/7N red phosphorus needed to make InP substrates! And without InP substrates: no photonics. Fun fact: China’s tech companies would get pretty disrupted with it too by NCI. For $AXTI, the mapping/reliance is actually pretty interesting: - AXT's Tongmei outlined its structural reliance on importing high-purity precursor materials from Japan on their STAR Market listing 
- WITS data showing ~$460/kg high-purity phosphorus flowing from Japan into China So they secretly do depend on NCI. 
China does have capacity like Wylton Chemical, Qin Xi New Materials, Jinding Electronics, and Chuxiong Chuanzhi, Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials as well. However, they’re all smaller players so can’t make up for high purity red phosphorus capacity provided by NCI for InP substrate production at scale. $LITE CEO already said inp substrates keeps him up at night. So now with NCI, you can give the guy permanent insomnia? For just $169M. So here's what the supply chain looks like: -> DGC phosphate rock mine and ships it to NCI -> NCI refines Yellow Phosphorus into High Purity Red Phosphorus -> Sumitomo / JX / AXT melt the Red Phosphorus with Indium to grow InP Substrates -> $COHR / $LITE fab InP substrates into Lasers -> Innolight/Fabrinet package them into 800G/1.6T transceivers -> $NVDA / $GOOGL use them for ASIC/GPU clusters. 
And basically, the entire West depends on NCI to make InP substrates for photonics. I hold some very small positions, just for fun. However, Japan is not well known for price hiking. So you’d probably run into regulatory problems eg. FEFTA if you bought the company and hiked prices 15000% (like government seizing back the company once they realize)… Maybe 30-50% hikes is possible to compress fwd p/e? But very likely wont end up like $AXTI. 
 Regardless, this company is a massive, massive national security risk priced at ~$160m. As for fundamentals, they’re trading at .54 book value and a forward P/E of 11.4 so it’s probably undervalued anyway. TLDR: -> Is it the next $AXTI? No. -> Is it an unknown structural bottleneck + critical vulnerability of the Western hyperscaler buildout with photonics? Yes. -> Is there still room for re-rating? Just reverting to Book Value of 1 is immediate 80-85% upside. Maybe more if you give it multiples past 11 fwd p/e. Regardless, it’s fun to find a major point of failure in the hyperscaler supply chains for $169m.

@aleabitoreddit when are you posting this?

I almost forgot. I’ll release one of them to subscriber chat later today before posting a thesis publicly. I’m curious if anyone can guess the name?

@aleabitoreddit When u posting the unholy CPO Nvda related name?

Just a few: 2455 TWSE: Visual photonics 268A TSEJ: Rigaku 3017 TWSE: Asial Vital 3363 TEPX: Foci 3450 TWSE: Elite Advanced Laser 5289 TPEX: Innodisk 6451 TWSE: Shunsin 6777 TSEJ: Santek I usually try and focus on one like Win Semi (3105 TPEX) that I have the most concentration in and do more simpler concentrated on those.

@aleabitoreddit What about the unholy CPO Nvda related sleeper?

Unfortunately, not all my names go up triple digits in a week. $HPS.A is only up ~17% so far. Hammond was my pick for the transformers/switchgear DC bottleneck since it had a lower MC but high dry transformer market share. $POWL was another good switchgear long that I came across often; I ended up passing but just throwing that out there. Transformers/Switchgear are probably under-appreciated as a bottleneck but many types are sold out for the next 2-5 years. Because of this, they’re causing widespread DC delays and should be a good structural long from backlog visibility + extreme demand.