jpemberthy

When in doubt, just take that double espresso shot. ☕️

Yes, but "seeing through" is neither easy nor free. It takes years to build an edge, and most people won't do the work. I've seen many try and fail. So passive is not just propaganda. For most, it's a better default than speculating without an edge. $AMZN is one of those moments for me. Thesis below. x.com/jpemberthy/sta…

⚡️The “everything is priced in” meme is the most effective piece of financial propaganda ever produced and it was written as a joke on a subreddit for degenerate gamblers. It works because it takes the most sophisticated sounding idea in finance, the efficient market hypothesis, and weaponizes it as learned helplessness. Don’t try. Don’t think. Don’t analyze. The market already knows. You can’t win. Just buy the index and wait thirty years. Sound familiar. Same message as every financial guru telling you to stop trying to see. Just participate passively and be grateful. The people who actually run markets, the ones moving real capital, don’t believe this for a second. Citadel doesn’t believe everything is priced in. Renaissance doesn’t believe it. Soros built his entire fortune on the explicit premise that markets are reflexive and systematically wrong. Druckenmiller has said publicly that markets misprice things constantly and that’s where all the money is. The efficient market hypothesis is taught in universities and believed by retail. It is rejected by every single person who has ever made serious money in markets. That’s not a coincidence. The theory serves a function. It keeps the majority of participants passive. Passive participants provide liquidity. They buy index funds. They hold through drawdowns. They don’t compete for the mispricing that active managers exploit. The entire structure of modern passive investing depends on most people believing they can’t beat the market. If everyone tried to beat the market the edge would disappear. The passivity of the majority is what creates the opportunity for the minority. So the meme is functional. It’s the market telling potential competitors to go home. The 10,600 upvotes are 10,600 people who will never make a non-consensus call in their lives. They’ve accepted the premise that the market knows more than they do. And for most of them that’s probably true. Not because the market is omniscient. Because they stopped trying to see. And when you stop trying to see you guarantee that you won’t.

@benedictk__ Drinkups are back. Nature is healing.

Ok hear me out - wine and codex. We can set this up. Vienna, Munich, Zurich - who be keen? We (that is OpenAI) take over a wine bar and invite you (codex / coding power users) to talk codex and coding.

@amitisinvesting It’s freaking Amazon indeed. My thesis.

$AMZN Amazon $250 has to feel amazing for so many of us…I think like 80% of FinX is long this name and I can’t imagine anyone being a bagholder on it anymore 😆 - AWS accelerating for the first time since 2022 - 15% Anthropic Stake - $20B TTM chip business - Robotics will eventually inflect operating margins - Has been trading at the lowest EV/EBITDA in history over the past few months Also…it’s freaking AMAZON !!!! Finally nice to see the market once again reward earnings growth and hopefully they crush Q1 and make the path to $300 this year 🙌 $AMZN +4%

@sovereign_eng_ Let's go. Channel breaks and we're at 79–80k. Buyers need to show up there.

we're making another attempt at entering the cloud, target 79-80k

@DeepIceValue $300 this year? Maybe. I’m thinking longer and $700 is on the table. Here’s the thesis: x.com/jpemberthy/sta…

Does $AMZN hit $300 this year?

@ChrisCamillo @ChrisCamillo I ended up writing my Amazon thesis after this. Thought you might enjoy it. x.com/jpemberthy/sta…

@ChrisCamillo I like the stock. Cheers.🚀

$AMZN

@travisk We had 5-min carne asada burritos delivered to 1455, chips included. It felt more magical than anything today

The original UberEats predicted what people wanted to eat and the food was put in cars right before the food was ordered. This meant an Uber eater would literally get his food in 5 minutes. We were a bit ahead of our time.. low scale meant too much waste and not enough choice With current size of online food delivery market, feels like this should now be possible, faster, more sustainable, actually less expensive … 5 minute delivery of anything you want to eat at a much lower price than today’s ubereats and DoorDash … guessing one of the delivery services goes after this in the next few years

@Steve_Yegge wb. LinkedIn has always felt more disgusting to me than twtr. Here you get the weirdos in the open. There it’s just pretentious people laundering their ego through fake professionalism. 🤢

I'm back on X. Took a couple months hiatus after the death-threat phone calls to my family from the crypto weirdos. They can all fuck right off, permanently. I will not agree to speak of crypto again, so don't ask, not even in person. Thank you for respecting my family's privacy on this. I've been trying to find some lipstick on the LinkedIn pig, and god damn if it isn't a weird, weird place. Almost all negative signal there has been suppressed, and also all quirkiness, it's all smoothed and oversaturated and Stepford-Wives-y. Always been like that, but now it has been terminally infected by AI writing, which has sent it into a spiral, and it's worse than it has ever been. (Note that I never use AI to write, I've taken to using comma splices as a shibboleth.) Everyone on LinkedIn writes their posts with (bad) AI. C-suites, coaches, leaders, principal engineers, product managers--they all have the same banal writing, the same stupid tells. It's like combovers, do they really think nobody else is going to notice? I could sort of stomach LinkedIn when it was just a weird cult. But when everyone started sporting AI combovers, I had to nope out. There are no human cognitive contributions happening there. So fuck it, I'll take the weirdos here along with the great people. I don't think you can find the one without the other. I am officially back, howdy howdy, will post a lot. Feels good. DM me and say hi.

@mmjukic Are you short or just venting?

It should make you mega-bearish on Brazil because despite all those advantages it has never mattered economically, technologically, or geopolitically and by all appearances never will, because that's how utterly awful their governance, politics, and institutions are.

@TrollyP71 Why’d you move out? We moved here in 2022 from SF, it’s been refreshing, but I think I prefer it up north in NH. Curious what pushed your decision.

Moved out of MA last week and putting our home up for sale next week. I am going to miss this place, we raised our boys here and built a great life for our family. I hope the next owner has equal success.

@drewcrawford_ The chart makes it clear. 1st wrote about this in 2023. The setup hasn't changed. I like the stock. 🇧🇷 preview.mailerlite.io/preview/84672/…

Brazil feeds a billion people. It holds 12% of the world’s freshwater. It produces 87% of its electricity from renewables at half the cost of American power. It holds 94% of global niobium, the second-largest reserves of rare earths, and the second-largest reserves of graphite. Its stock market trades at 9.25x forward earnings. The S&P 500 trades at 21x. An American investor pays more than twice as much per dollar of expected earnings for exposure to the US economy than for the country that holds the minerals, the water, the food, and the energy that the 21st century runs on. Someone explain to me how that math works. Read why I’m bullish on Brazil below 👇

You are the sum of the outcomes of the opportunities you get.

@nickshirleyy @officer_Lew Only if you're wearing certain hoodie.

@officer_Lew Can I attend?

FYI🚨: Minnesota impeachment hearings for Gov. Tim Walz start next week.

@BitPaine NYKNYC kthxbai

Let’s say you had $1M $BTC. You move it to Coinbase and borrow $USDC at 4.7%. Borrow $500,000 (50% LTV). Buy $500,000 $STRC at 11.5%. Capture 6.8% spread. ~$2,800 / mo. TAX FREE. Not without risks (DYOR), but I imagine many will do this.

@RepThomasMassie Always has been.

America First > MAGA

@lfdepombo @cursor_ai @conductor_build I keep evangelizing @conductor_build internally for free at this point. It’s that good. Maybe one day they’ll send me a hat.

@jpemberthy @cursor_ai @conductor_build completely agree, can't imagine going back

Every @cursor_ai alternative so far ended the same way: I went back. @conductor_build feels different. It's the first real contender imo. Try it.

@liberta___depre Nervioso que era Aristizábal 😮‍💨 x.com/nostalgia5star…

Renato Gaúcho cita Hinestroza e explica por que é difícil dirigir colombianos no Brasil: 'Eles têm muitos erros' "O que mais falo, até por eu ter sido atacante, é para terem tranquilidade para tomar decisão, porque o desespero dentro ou próximo da área é sempre do adversário. Temos quatro colombianos no grupo. Eu procuro corrigir. Eles têm muitos erros. É meu trabalho, mas é falta de tempo, não é da noite para o dia que vou corrigir os caras 100%. Aí tem o problema também da adaptação do jogador colombiano. Quando eu estava no Grêmio ou outros clubes, quando me ofereciam jogadores colombianos ou equatorianos, que eu gosto deles, eu só dava aval para trazer no momento em que estavam adaptados ao futebol brasileiro. Eles precisam de muito tempo para se adaptar ao futebol brasileiro. Futebol brasileiro com colombiano tem diferença grande, principalmente taticamente. Isso leva tempo. É difícil jogar a cada três dias e corrigir tudo dos jogadores. Muitas vezes tomam decisão errada porque jogam dessa forma na Colômbia e no Equador, e no Brasil eles têm esses problemas. Eu procuro corrigir, mas é adaptação, não da noite por dia. Infelizmente enquanto isso vão cometer esses erros, por mais que a gente corrija. Via: @ESPNBrasil 📷VascoTV / 📷Matheus Lima

@_The_Prophet__ Cars showed it first. Japanese manufacturers outperformed Germany on efficiency years ago. Now it’s an industry coasting on a reputation built in a different era.

⚡️Germany committed slow industrial suicide. The country got rich on cheap Russian energy, export dominance, industrial discipline, an undervalued currency inside the euro, and an American security shield. Then it treated all of that as permanent. It shut nuclear, made energy ideological, buried production under rules, hollowed the military, aged itself demographically, and absorbed migration at a scale its state and culture could not metabolize cleanly. Then history came back. Russia broke. China stopped being a customer and became a rival. Global trade got harsher. Energy got expensive. Industry lost edge. And the German elite kept talking like process, guilt, and regulation were enough to run a civilization. That is the real failure. Germany forgot that an advanced industrial nation runs on power, borders, capital formation, engineers, and strategic realism. It tried to live as a posthistorical moral lecture while the rest of the world kept playing power politics. The welfare state mattered. The regulatory pileup mattered. Mass immigration into a spiritually tired, bureaucratically rigid society mattered. But the deepest wound was upstream of all of that. Germany lost civilizational will. It stopped believing in hard power. Stopped defending industrial primacy. Stopped treating energy as sacred. Stopped acting like history could turn violent again. Stopped behaving like a serious nation and started behaving like a rich administrative zone. That chart is one shadow of the deeper thing. Relative GDP share falls partly because others rise, but the direction is still real. Germany has less force, less confidence, less energy advantage, less strategic autonomy, and less momentum than it used to. The real answer is simple. Germany spent decades converting strength into self-denial. Now the inheritance is burning off.