Michael Bohnert
2.1K posts
@mbohnert
Husband | Father | Engineer @RANDCorporation | Researcher | Skier | My views are my own. RT≠endorsement. Following≠agreement.
Hundreds of Ukrainian drones overwhelmed Moscow’s layered air defenses on June 17-18. Russia claims it downed 555+ UAVs that night alone, yet multiple struck the Kapotnya oil refinery for the second time erupting massive fires. This wasn’t luck. It was engineered saturation. The math tells the story. Ukraine launched massive coordinated waves, mixing armed drones with decoys that carry adjustable radar signatures to mimic real threats. Russian systems, optimized for fewer high-value missiles or aircraft, faced dozens arriving simultaneously from different angles. Even a 90%+ interception rate (per some Russian milbloggers) still left enough penetrators to hit the target. This breakthrough built on years of preparation. Ukrainian forces systematically targeted Russian air defense radars, launchers, and electronic warfare modules across multiple sectors. By hitting dispersed sites and forcing Russia to spread its best systems thin, Kyiv created exploitable gaps even around the heavily defended capital region. The provided inage shows how air defense locations are roughly 5 to 10 miles apart. For reference, an air defense can see drones at 100 ft about 5 miles away due to the radar horizon. This leaves at most three overlapping systems over a single target with roughly 4-32 interceptors available for use, easily overwhelmed. Flight paths were meticulously planned — sometimes J-shaped routes that circled defenses before final approach. Advanced Ukrainian drones, including faster jet-powered variants alongside propeller-driven models, complicated tracking. Decoys drew fire while real munitions pressed through. Going back to our map, buildings can be used as cover, although one drone hit a crane while flying low. The result: visible “oil rain,” refinery fires, and all four major Moscow airports grounding flights. Specific damage at Kapotnya included the combined oil refining unit, a secondary processing unit, and tank farm. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin acknowledged strikes on the refinery and minor damage elsewhere. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported broad intercepts, but geolocated footage and official admissions confirmed real effects deep inside the capital’s defensive bubble. Compare the scale: Ukraine fired over 1,000 drones toward Russia in the broader operation that day. Even partial success against the most protected targets demonstrates a repeatable capability. Low-cost mass + prior attrition of defender systems + adaptive routing = a template that exposes vulnerabilities in legacy air defense doctrine. These aren’t one-off raids. They’re the product of sustained tactical evolution. Ukraine is proving it can impose real costs on Russia’s rear areas despite heavy defenses. Full details and context in the original report. Image via @Telegraph
Hundreds of Ukrainian drones overwhelmed Moscow’s layered air defenses on June 17-18. Russia claims it downed 555+ UAVs that night alone, yet multiple struck the Kapotnya oil refinery for the second time erupting massive fires. This wasn’t luck. It was engineered saturation. The math tells the story. Ukraine launched massive coordinated waves, mixing armed drones with decoys that carry adjustable radar signatures to mimic real threats. Russian systems, optimized for fewer high-value missiles or aircraft, faced dozens arriving simultaneously from different angles. Even a 90%+ interception rate (per some Russian milbloggers) still left enough penetrators to hit the target. This breakthrough built on years of preparation. Ukrainian forces systematically targeted Russian air defense radars, launchers, and electronic warfare modules across multiple sectors. By hitting dispersed sites and forcing Russia to spread its best systems thin, Kyiv created exploitable gaps even around the heavily defended capital region. The provided inage shows how air defense locations are roughly 5 to 10 miles apart. For reference, an air defense can see drones at 100 ft about 5 miles away due to the radar horizon. This leaves at most three overlapping systems over a single target with roughly 4-32 interceptors available for use, easily overwhelmed. Flight paths were meticulously planned — sometimes J-shaped routes that circled defenses before final approach. Advanced Ukrainian drones, including faster jet-powered variants alongside propeller-driven models, complicated tracking. Decoys drew fire while real munitions pressed through. Going back to our map, buildings can be used as cover, although one drone hit a crane while flying low. The result: visible “oil rain,” refinery fires, and all four major Moscow airports grounding flights. Specific damage at Kapotnya included the combined oil refining unit, a secondary processing unit, and tank farm. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin acknowledged strikes on the refinery and minor damage elsewhere. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported broad intercepts, but geolocated footage and official admissions confirmed real effects deep inside the capital’s defensive bubble. Compare the scale: Ukraine fired over 1,000 drones toward Russia in the broader operation that day. Even partial success against the most protected targets demonstrates a repeatable capability. Low-cost mass + prior attrition of defender systems + adaptive routing = a template that exposes vulnerabilities in legacy air defense doctrine. These aren’t one-off raids. They’re the product of sustained tactical evolution. Ukraine is proving it can impose real costs on Russia’s rear areas despite heavy defenses. Full details and context in the original report. Image via @Telegraph
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukrainian drones struck the Tavricheskaya Thermal Power Plant near Simferopol in Russian-occupied Crimea overnight. NASA FIRMS satellite data detected heat signatures at the plant, indicating a significant portion of it was on fire. Source: @Osinttechnical / Writer: Ian
Now that the oil and ash have somewhat settled from this week's Ukrainian strikes on Moscow, I want to make a few updates. Earlier I had commented on the quality of Russian air defenses, there is much to unpack. What was surprising was how high some of the Ukrainian drones and missiles flew. Many were flying what appeara to be between 100 and 300 feet. At this altitude radar visibility should have been in the dozens of miles, even in a city with buildings. This leads to my first observation, many of the Russian fire units appear to be unready for the incoming drones. Many of the shots are inly after the drone has passed. Either the operators are untrained (highly likely), the command and control is poor (I have yet to hear radios in the background of fire teams shot videos), or there is next to no early warning. The lack of early warning is of particular interest. Ukraine has spent significant effort targeting Russian air defenses over the past +4 years. Russia may have lost many more radars than we realized or they are intentionally keeping them off to protect them. Very hard to tell at this time, but worth monitoring. The command and control is very hard to accurately assess remotely, but there does seem to be a lack of planning and coordination of air defenses. Numerous videos show Russia air defense teams in odd locations such as low points. Now these are near roads, so it could be a choice for mobile air defense or to make up for a lack of capacity. However, having air defense units at highr elevation would support better early warning by the local air defense if broader early warning is unavailable. It is very hard to separate poor training from poor equipment. The image I attached has become widely viewed. It shows a Russian air defender shoot a man portable air defense (MANPAD). The missile immediately veers off somewhere else. It could be operator error either with poor shot selection or general procedures. It could be faulty systems providing poor feedback. It could be older systems that can't handle saturation well and detected a larger heat source offbore (noted by @TrentTelenko) . The missile that cause the iconic fuel tank discussion was a stray missile where the intended target isn't visible. More images of these failures keep pouring in. Regardless of the reason, there is something fundamentally wrong with Russian air defense. It wasn't just Ukraine's use of overwhelming raids, good route planning, and long term preparations. We may have to wait for the next bug strikes to get more information. We probably won't have to wait long. Image source @Osinttechnical
