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Mr Predict
1.4K posts
Mr Predict
@mrpredict69
Unc yapping about prediction markets, entrepreneurship, and life. Currently building @newsmaybeletter and trying to make $1M using AI. Follow so you can too.
Kitchen انضم Haziran 2025
636 يتبع120 المتابعون
Sports are a necessary "evil" for prediction markets to stay afloat. I am bullish on non-sports, but even I struggle with trying to envision a way to entice people on the platform who will trade these other markets that aren't already sports bettor types.
Mentions are the least interesting markets to me, but the softest by far, so whatever.
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Agree here, I think sports on prediction markets is an improvement over the status quo but it’s not the net societal benefit that other markets are.
The 90% volume dominance is mainly a product of the sports calendar vs. political/event calendar would obviously like to see that volume split to be more towards non sports in the future tho
Bayes Baller@Bayes_Baller
When asked "Why are prediction markets a good thing?" I typically have two answers based on the type of market- Market Option A: Markets where there is consumer surplus for non market participants in the form of information surfacing (Politics, Geopolitical, Disasters) Market Option B: Markets where the information generated does not really benefit society but a market structure is still an improvement over the status quo (Mainly Sports here) I understand why PM operators want to to offer both Option A and Option B markets but making public arguments for them is difficult as the justifications differ between the two options. There is also differing outside pressure depending on the market type. Pressure against Market A comes in the form of public outrage over markets that seem "Icky" or distasteful (I would also argue that the ickier the market, the more important information surfacing becomes and the worse signal you get from just following traditional media) Pressure against Market B comes in the form of legacy sportsbooks/Tribes/State Regulators who don't get what they view as their fair cut in a market based approach Tough problem for PMs to figure out on the fly but will be essential in the next few months as the pressure has ramped up
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I argue that sports markets are completely useless with @polyfactual on Bayesian Supercycle.
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Ironically now that anyone can cook up software it is almost definitely NOT the place you should be focusing your time on as a builder.
DISTRIBUTION IS ALL THAT MATTERS.
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@denk_tweets They bought the only non-nerd coded tech podcast. Lesson there.
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why OpenAI really acquired TBPN:
it's a lot deeper than what they say in a polished press release
"TBPN has built something pretty special… rather than trying to recreate that ourselves, it made a lot of sense to bring them in and help them scale"
translation: "you already trust John and Jordi. if we started our own show, you wouldn't"
this is why they actually bought it:
> the cost of content is 0
> people follow stories, not features
> distribution is the only real bottleneck
> trust is the only thing that's scarce now
they see where this is going..
and their conclusion was that the best way to shape the AI narrative is two humans talking on a podcast.
same reason HubSpot acquired Starter Story btw
narrative is the moat and tech brands are betting big on it
John Coogan@johncoogan
TBPN has been acquired by OpenAI! The show is staying the same and we’ll continue to go live at 11am pacific every weekday. This is a full circle moment for me as I’ve worked with @sama for well over a decade. He funded my first company in 2013. Then helped us fix a serious logjam during a critical funding round a few years later. When I took my second company through YC, he was president at the time, and then when I joined Founders Fund, the first deal I saw in motion was the post-ChatGPT round in late 2022. And as we started growing TBPN last year, he was the very first lab lead to join the show. Thank you to everyone that has been a part of TBPN until now. The last year has been the most fun and rewarding part of my career and we’re excited to have more resources than ever going forward.
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Fascinating how this definition of "better" just happens to not include demographics, community cohesion, religion, marriage, or family formation–the things that make life worth living for most people.
All those incredibly valuable but less tangible goods have become more scarce over the past century, but hey, at least we have Netflix. Definitely don't look up the suicide rate, or "deaths of despair", or drug overdoses, or falling birth rates.
We want real nations, not deracinated multicultural liberal economic zones with flat screens and takeout.
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The average American today lives better than John D. Rockefeller did in 1926. That is not an exaggeration. It is a fact.
Rockefeller could not fly across the country in five hours. You can for $200. He could not video call his family from another continent. You do it for free. He had no antibiotics, no MRI, no air conditioning in July. He could not carry every book ever written in his pocket. You are reading this on a device that does all of that and more.
Americans throw away 30-40% of their food. Not because they are wasteful, but because food is so abundant that waste is affordable. Your car has climate control, navigation, and safety systems that did not exist at any price a century ago. Your home has heating, cooling, refrigeration, and entertainment that emperors could not have imagined.
None of this was voted into existence. None of it was redistributed from the rich. It was created by free minds operating in what remains of a free market. Every comfort you enjoy today is the product of a man who thought, invented, produced, and traded voluntarily.
This is what the remnants of capitalism still deliver, even while it is being dismantled. Imagine what a fully free society could build.
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@quinnslcm Is there really that big of a difference between just sponsoring a show like Morning Brew and buying it?
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Some fintech companies are better off not owning a media property
Requires a strong and deeply engaged team
Austin Rief ☕️@austin_rief
The biggest tech <> media miss was Robinhood or SoFi not buying Morning Brew. It was a no-brainer in 2020 and even more obvious today.
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@colejaczko @4Awesometweet “academics” are overrated. if you network and try hard at TCU you can get the same jobs as someone at USC.
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Advice like this is super dangerous & misses the point.
The best part about making money when you're young is you realize money doesn't do much for you.
After a certain point, it doesn't make you happy. Nor is it going to attract the right people into your life.
Life is long and you have plenty of time to make money & work.
You only get 4 years to be in college. And only 1 decade to be in your 20s.
Be young. Go to college. There are few things more fun than being a 20-year-old at one of the top colleges, surrounded by amazing people who will all become life long best friends, all having the time of your life.
80 year old me will have more money than I'll know what to do with. I know for a fact I'll be spending it on the friends I made at USC, laughing about the glory days.
Jimmy Farley@JimmyFarley00
I became a millionaire at 23 and a multi-millionaire at 25 And have never been asked ONCE where I went to college Just saying 😁
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@unbothered_ib @mrpredict69 @BosniaNTBall I registered before qualification I hear lots have issues too
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Absolute joke what FIFA did with the World Cup tickets. Almost impossible for people to buy. The resale on 3rd party websites and the prices they have set should be illegal. #FIFAWorldCup2026
New York Post@nypost
FIFA World Cup tickets rush turns into chaos as website crashes out: 'absolute joke' trib.al/VITV8DQ
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@urfav616boy @BosniaNTBall What was the PMA code you needed to use?
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@BosniaNTBall You had to create fifa id ans claim as Bosnia supporter
There are still tix available for La and Seattle
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Mr Predict أُعيد تغريده
i legit can’t stop crying at this tweet bc it’s 100% true. a concerted effort to ensure that a muslim name was never born again there, one that flung so many families like my own to far corners of the earth. they wanted to ensure moments like this never happened and YET IT DID.
Emir Suljagić@suljagicemir1
There was a plan for this boy never to be born, for my own children never to be born, for any of our children never to be born. Their laughter is our greatest revenge.
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Huge W for Bosnia today. My best friend is Bosnian. I highly recommend adding a Bosnian to your crew. They rule.
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i tried working from a coffee shop today instead of my office & it was impossible to get anything done.
i was constantly distracted by one thing or another, from sounds to ppl moving around etc.
it’s unclear to me how anyone is able to be productive working from a coffee shop.
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@Amonahan @_falsi1ke Most models you copy/chase is rooted in some bit of sports knowledge. This is how new edges are unveiled (e.g. rule changes in leagues that can be applied to your models). Best originators I know are able to apply context to their numbers. Not really a scam.
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