Niraj Gupta

242 posts

Niraj Gupta

Niraj Gupta

@niraj_GCI

Portfolio Manager GCI Partners Carpe Diem

Manhattan, NY انضم Ekim 2009
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Niraj Gupta أُعيد تغريده
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
Twenty-six generals and admirals in fourteen months. No misconduct cited for a single one. A former Fox News weekend host who never held a senior military command has removed the Joint Chiefs Chairman, the Army Chief of Staff, the commander of Army Transformation and Training, the Chief of Chaplains, and at least 22 other senior officers from the most powerful military on earth. He blocked four Army officers from promotion to brigadier general, two Black men and two women, by unilaterally striking their names from a list of 36. When Army Secretary Dan Driscoll refused to remove them, Hegseth did it himself. No hearing. No review board. No Senate consultation. The names were struck because the man who reads the list decided they should not be on it. The pattern is not random. It is architectural. Every removal serves the same function: shortening the distance between a presidential decision and its execution. The officers who remain are the ones who did not resist. The officers who resisted are gone. The replacement for the Army Chief of Staff is Vice Chief General Christopher LaNeve, who served as Hegseth’s personal military aide. The man who carried the briefcase now signs the orders. The chain of command has been rebuilt so that every link answers directly to the man who removed the previous link. General Randy George was the commander of the United States Army’s ground forces. That title matters now in a way it did not matter six weeks ago. Before February 28, ground forces in Iran were a theoretical exercise discussed in war colleges and think tanks. After five weeks of air strikes, with the IRGC publishing bridge target lists across four allied nations, with the President saying the military has “not even started” destroying what remains, with MEUs staged in the Gulf and the 82nd Airborne deploying and JSOC operators at forward bases in four countries, the ground option is no longer theoretical. It is a logistics package. And the man whose job was to assess whether that package should be opened was told to retire the same day the President posted “much more to follow.” Lieutenant General Hodne ran the command that trains every soldier who would execute a ground operation. Major General Green led the chaplain corps that would minister to every soldier who dies in one. George decided whether the operation should happen. Hodne prepared the soldiers to carry it out. Green prepared them to live with it. All three were removed on the same afternoon. Congress has not held a hearing. No subpoenas issued. The legal authority for a Defence Secretary to unilaterally override promotion lists and force immediate retirement of Senate-confirmed officers during wartime has not been tested because nobody with the authority to question it has chosen to. The IRGC has said attacks will “intensify from next week.” The Ford carrier is heading back. The CNN intelligence assessment confirms half of Iran’s launchers and thousands of drones remain. The President has named the next targets: power plants, desalination, oil wells, Kharg Island. And every general who might have said “this crosses a line” is already gone. Twenty-six officers. Zero misconduct findings. One question that every general still serving is asking behind closed doors: who is left to say no? And what happens when the answer is nobody? open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

JUST IN: You do not fire your Army Chief of Staff in the middle of a war for no reason. You fire him because of what comes next. Pete Hegseth called General Randy George on April 2 and told him to retire immediately. The Pentagon confirmed it within hours. No reason was given. Not publicly. Not privately. A senior Army official told Fox News that Hegseth offered George nothing: no misconduct, no operational failure, no policy disagreement on the record. Just a phone call and a career ending in the middle of the most significant American combat operation in two decades. George is the 24th general or admiral Hegseth has removed. But he is not the 24th. He is the one that matters. The Army Chief of Staff. The man whose signature sits between a president’s intent and the order that sends soldiers across a beach or into a tunnel complex. The 82nd Airborne is deploying right now. Marines from the 31st MEU are staged on the USS Tripoli. JSOC operators are at forward bases in Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Kharg Island, 90 percent of Iranian oil exports, sits 16 kilometres off a coast that someone will have to decide whether to approach. And the four-star general whose job it was to advise whether that approach should happen was removed 48 hours after Trump told the nation the war would continue for two to three more weeks. The replacement is Vice Chief General Christopher LaNeve. He was Hegseth’s senior military aide before this appointment. The man who carried the Secretary’s briefcase now commands the Army the Secretary is reshaping. The chain of command did not break. It shortened. The distance between a television studio and a combat order just collapsed to zero intermediaries who were not personally selected by the man giving the order. No reason was given. That is the tell. When someone is removed without explanation during a crisis, the explanation is the crisis itself. George either objected to something or was about to. The ground option. The power plant strikes. The Kharg raid. The escalation that turned a highway bridge in Karaj into rubble on the same day he was told to leave. Something in the next two weeks requires a chief who will not push back, and the Pentagon solved that problem by installing one trained as Hegseth’s aide. A former Fox News weekend host just fired a four-star general with combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, replaced him with his own former assistant, and did it during a live war in which the next decision could put American soldiers on Iranian soil for the first time in history. No hearing was held. No misconduct cited. The Army woke up on April 3 with a new chief it did not choose, in a war it did not start, preparing for a phase the previous chief apparently could not be trusted to execute. The question is not why George was fired. Every general in the building knows why. The question is what order is coming in the next fourteen days that required removing the one man in the chain of command who might have said no. The war has no perimeter. The chain of command has no objectors. And the next phase has no one left to stop it. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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Niraj Gupta أُعيد تغريده
QE Infinity
QE Infinity@StealthQE4·
Morally I have a severe problem with this. I don’t think we are the “good guys” anymore. We’ve gone full rogue. The events I’m watching are things that I never thought I’d see us ever do to anyone. It’s really disturbing
QE Infinity tweet media
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Stock Talk
Stock Talk@stocktalkweekly·
*PRESIDENT TRUMP FIRES ATTORNEY GENERAL PAM BONDI
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Niraj Gupta أُعيد تغريده
Niraj Gupta
Niraj Gupta@niraj_GCI·
What a disgrace this administration has turned out to be. “You break it, you own it.” Apparently, doesn’t apply these simpletons. A level of incompetence that is difficult to comprehend but not surprising. Whoever thinks this unprovoked war was a good idea is incredibly naive, delusional and completely out of touch with the fact that the world is actually impacted by the stupid things we do.
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Tracy Wolfson
Tracy Wolfson@tracywolfson·
This is great 😂
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Niraj Gupta أُعيد تغريده
Rand Paul
Rand Paul@RandPaul·
The founders didn’t intend for Congress to sit on the sidelines. James Madison gave it the power to check the president, especially in matters of war and foreign policy.
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Niraj Gupta@niraj_GCI·
@McFaul @UConnMBB That was incredible. As a Michigan fan, I can relate to that turnover. Sorry Duke. Great UCONN win.
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Niraj Gupta
Niraj Gupta@niraj_GCI·
Hopefully someone in Washington can read… great post below
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

BREAKING: Zelensky just landed in the UAE and signed a defence cooperation agreement with President MBZ. The deal on the table changes everything about this war. Ukraine is offering Gulf states 1,000 drone interceptors per day. Each Sting interceptor costs $2,100. Each Patriot missile it replaces costs $3.9 million. In exchange, Ukraine wants the Patriot missiles the Gulf states are burning through, because Kyiv cannot get enough of them to stop Russian missiles. Read that again. The country America refused to arm fast enough is now arming America’s allies with a weapon that costs 1,857 times less than the one America cannot produce fast enough. The National reported on March 27 that Zelensky told reporters: “We’d like to quietly receive the Patriot missiles we have a deficit of, and give them a corresponding number of interceptors.” AFP confirmed the UAE agreement on March 28. Eleven countries have formally requested Ukraine’s drone defence expertise per Zelensky’s own count. Over 200 Ukrainian military specialists are already deployed across the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. Here is the arithmetic that should terrify every Pentagon procurement officer on earth. The United States fired 943 Patriot interceptors in the first four days of the Iran war per a US Congressional study cited by the Jerusalem Post. That is eighteen months of Lockheed Martin’s annual production consumed in 96 hours. Each of those 943 shots cost $3.9 million. Total expenditure: $3.68 billion in four days on defensive interceptions alone. Iran produces 10,000 Shahed drones per month per Reuters. Each drone costs $20,000 to $50,000. The cost exchange ratio is 114 to 1 in Iran’s favour per Military Times. Ukraine’s Sting interceptor inverts this arithmetic entirely. At $2,100, the cost ratio flips from 114-to-1 against America to roughly 10-to-1 against Iran. Ukraine can supply 1,000 per day. That is 30,000 per month against Iran’s 10,000 Shaheds per month. For the first time in this war, the defender’s production rate exceeds the attacker’s production rate at a fraction of the cost. And the country that built this weapon is the same country that Trump publicly rejected. “No, they are not helping. We do not need their help. We know more about drones than anyone else” per Fox News. He doubled down: “The last person we need help from is Zelensky.” Meanwhile the Pentagon notified Congress of plans to redirect $750 million in Ukraine-bound Patriot missiles to Gulf states per House of Saud reporting. America is simultaneously refusing Ukraine’s cheap solution and cannibalising Ukraine’s expensive one. Zelensky framed this explicitly. He told The National: “No matter how many Patriots, THAADs, or other air-defence systems are in the Middle East, that alone is not enough for fully effective air defence.” He told the UK Parliament: “When it comes to shooting down massive Shahed attacks, only Ukrainian experience can really help with this today.” The Pentagon is spending $3.9 million per interception, raiding Swiss fighter jet accounts to cover shortfalls, and diverting Ukraine’s own Patriot supply to the Gulf. Zelensky is offering the same result for $2,100 and producing 1,000 units per day. The market has a word for this kind of disruption. The $2,100 drone is the most important weapon in this war. And the country that built it is the one America said it did not need. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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Niraj Gupta أُعيد تغريده
Aaron Rupar
Aaron Rupar@atrupar·
Q: Has there been an increase in Russia's support for Iran? RUBIO: Let me put it to you this way -- there is nothing Russia is doing for Iran that is in any way impeding or affecting our operations
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський
We have reached an important Arrangement between the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on defense cooperation. The document was signed ahead of our meeting with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. It lays the foundation for future contracts, technological cooperation, and investment. It also strengthens Ukraine’s international role as a security donor. We are ready to share our expertise and systems with Saudi Arabia and to work together to strengthen the protection of lives. Now into the fifth year, Ukrainians are resisting the same kind of terrorist attacks – ballistic missiles and drones – that the Iranian regime is currently carrying out in the Middle East and the Gulf region. Saudi Arabia also has capabilities that are of interest to Ukraine, and this cooperation can be mutually beneficial. We also discussed the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region as a whole, Russia’s assistance to the Iranian regime, developments in fuel markets, and potential energy cooperation. Thank you for the meeting.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський tweet mediaVolodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський tweet mediaVolodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський tweet mediaVolodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський tweet media
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jbulltard
jbulltard@jbulltard1·
I gotta hand it to Trump, crashing the market twice in 12 months with self inflicted moves is a rare feat we may never see again in our lifeimtes
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Aaron Rupar
Aaron Rupar@atrupar·
WELKER: Would the administration ever raise taxes in order to fund this war? BESSENT: Again, Kristen, terrible framing WELKER: It's a simple question BESSENT: It's a ridiculous question WELKER: Can you answer it? BESSENT: Why would we do that? We have plenty. We have a trillion dollars.
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Michael Spyker
Michael Spyker@ShaleTier7·
I am just a guy that likes making my maps but I do feel somewhat compelled to say that Iran has a particularly good power grid, and gas distribution network. Like nearly impossible to destroy. I mean, I think Iran has a better gas transmission footprint than Canada. I know know who this tweet is for, but maybe these maps are helpful. In 2017, Iran exported 7,871 GWh and imported ~4 kWh, mainly exporting to Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Iran's 4.3MWh per capita of annual electricity consumption is actually in-line with the UK at 4.6MWh per capita, and ~25% ahead of countries like Brazil and South Africa. Attacking a very hardened system like this, and opening the Gulf up to attacks on far more single-failure-point assets -- seems wildly, WILDLY stupid.
Michael Spyker tweet mediaMichael Spyker tweet mediaMichael Spyker tweet mediaMichael Spyker tweet media
The White House@WhiteHouse

🚨 “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST…” - President DONALD J. TRUMP

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Rep. Don Bacon 🇺🇸✈️🏍️⭐️🎖️
I’ve been very supportive of POTUS on Iran & believe getting rid of Maduro was good. But I’ve been appalled by this Admin's tone, rhetoric, tactics & strategy toward Europe. Denigrating our allies has been terrible. Weakness communicated to Putin has caused grave damage. Passive-aggressive communication toward President Zelenskyy is embarrassing. I hear from our allies about the damage this has done & it’s going to take time to repair.
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