deafturtle

3/30/26 Entry /SB dip add $SOXS add $SNDK short $GLND $SWMR Exit $SOC BE $VAL $RIG /ZL partial /UB cover might be approaching complete liquidation event soon

If you feel overwhelmed this week, just take a moment to commemorate the one-year anniversary of Liberation Day, an easy and relaxed global economic shock by comparison

what kind of cope is this

I feel badly for everyone replying to this who somehow think markets go down in a straight line. I think SPX is not going to put in a longer term before it’s below 6000, but there will be some violent short term rallies. Like these:

3/27/26 Entry /NQ short DT /YM short DT /SIL short add /MGC add $SOXS PMs decoupled today, I'm betting that long short gld/slv will still be a good play. XLE XES getting frothy

3/26/26 Entry /SIL short $ARKK short Exit GLD bull put spread BE $ETHA calls $PURR add BE $VG partial $LXU partial $TPL partial

3/25/26 Entry /ZL $JETS short $CE $IPI $SOC Exit $LAND /GC partial

3/24/26 Entry /KC

WOW. There is a HUGE Special Operations Deployment arriving in the Mid East. The seizure of Kharg and Hormuz Island is almost 100% going ahead. We don’t deploy this for nothing. Army Ch-47 Helicopters 160th SOAR MH-60 helicopters Units fm: Both 1st & 2nd Batt 75th Rangers 5th SF Group US Army Delta Force SEAL TEAM-6 Centcom task force USAF 621st “Devil Raiders” contingency response team (runway repair) 82nd Airborne already likely deployed. Ovda Airbase in Israel is near the Elat on the Red Sea and is empty & full of hard shelters. King Faisal in Al-Jafr Jordan is a huge base used by USSOF before. It’s close to KATSOC training facility for work ups. With Tripoli MEU inchopping the Gulf of Oman on Friday this is a huge force for multiple Islands & locations, not just Kharg. They intend to take and repair one runway (Kharg). This force is not leverage. This is a commitment to take action.

3/23/26 Entry $CORN leaps dip add /ZW dip add /KE dip add /UB short dip add /SB dip add /GC premarket GLD bull put spread $PURR dip Exit /SIL cover premarket /KC /CLZ premarket /NG BE /MNK cover premarket $CF $NTR my 6am silver short to gold long saved my ass

US Marines slated to arrive in the Middle East on Friday - WSJ.

3/20/26 Entry /NG add /MNK short add /UB short add Exit $SPY put $BE SL $EXE BE $IRDM $NOK $LASR they're selling gas and oil stocks during a gas and oil crisis. that's your counterparty

3/19/26 Entry $NEXT $EXE $EWY calls hedge $BE /KC Exit /SIL short add $NEXT partial $VG partial $AGRO partial $FPI SL $LAND SL $IPI $MOS $EWY puts what a day

@kulturdesken Btd?

Adding more $NET

@kulturdesken "my own experience does not confirm this" lmao

This is a good sign. Germany is not always on the wrong side of history - so my AI keeps telling me at least - and no my own experience does not confirm this. The cynical me says N is dead and that's why these spineless cowards can withdraw the defense now as he will be posthumously scapegoated . What do you think?

3/18/26 Entry /UB short premarket /SIL short add /NG /MNK short add $EWY puts Exit /CC /MSL $ETHA partial $FIG $NOW $AMSC $LASR partial gonna start offloading some positions and hedges for bp

I'm setup to make truly insane returns if this crisis stretches on longer but what I'm setup for is fucking awful

3/15/26 Entry $VAL $RIG $EEM puts add $SPY puts Exit /LBR partial $PURR partial

Iran should just buy some soybeans and Boeing jets and get this thing over with.

I think it's funny to read some of the oil commentary saying that oil prices aren't that "high" today because it's not going to be that "bad". No man. That's because there was a cushion at the beginning of the conflict. We are now eating through that. Here's what I wrote on March 4 in our report titled, "Why Aren't Oil Prices At $100?" How much storage do we have before the market starts to panic? Well, here’s the math: The Middle East exports ~19 million b/d of crude + condensate + products through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi’s East-West pipeline has a capacity of ~5 million b/d, but a chunk of that was already in-use. UAE also has the ability to bypass with the Abu Dhabi pipeline (Habshan-Fujairah) with a capacity of ~1.8 million b/d. Excluding Iranian flows (~2 million b/d), that leaves us with ~10 to ~12 million b/d at risk. We’ve already had 6 days of disruptions. This amounts to ~60 to ~72 million bbls of crude + condensate + product. Production shut-in so far has been restricted to producers with no real storage capacity (Iraq). Goldman estimates that there are ~312 million bbls of capacity available. So we are still 2 weeks away from needing to shut in more production. After storage capacity hits max capacity and if tanker flows remain restricted, that’s when we will see panic. Meanwhile, the global oil market is working through the excess crude on water and the surplus in storage that we have in 2025. By our estimate, excess crude on water and excess onshore storage will be gone in 2-3 weeks. This is roughly the same timeline as the production shut-in scenario. In other words, if we don’t see tanker activity pick up after 2 weeks, prepare for the worst-case scenario. For now, the oil market is absorbing the shock via the excess in storage. It won’t have much left after. This is primarily the reason why we haven’t seen oil shoot past triple digits just yet.