Adrian Esterman | Epidemiology

Professor of Biostatistics & Epidemiology | ex-WHO Adelaide University I interpret health data, disease trends and risk claims in the media. Clear explanation. Careful use of denominators. Context before conclusions.

Meningococcal disease does not spread in the same way as COVID. Transmission is via close, prolonged contact with respiratory secretions, not general airborne spread across rooms. That’s why control measures focus on identifying close contacts and giving antibiotics ± vaccination. Masks are not a primary outbreak control tool here

Health officials are even actively telling people NOT to wear a mask to protect themselves because they can “create the wrong message” and “spread panic”. If there is even a chance of AEROSOL transmission, this could be extremely dangerous advice. kidneycareuk.org/news-from-kidn…

Nightclub owner at centre of meningitis outbreak says “something isn’t making sense” - as TWO staff in hospital. “There's been a lot of talk about how hard it is to transmit… …but actually, it was transmitted a LOT more easily, by the looks of it, than they're suggesting” 🧵

Influenza B is often described as “just the flu.” But influenza can, rarely, cause severe complications — including secondary bacterial infection, sepsis, or limb-threatening vascular complications. Severe outcomes are uncommon, but not zero. That’s why prevention and early care matter.

U.S. teen loses both legs, one arm after flu complications. Never in a million years did I think that a flu B would lead to something like this.” ctvnews.ca/world/article/…

Kent meningococcal outbreak now at 34 confirmed cases. It is important to remember that meningococcal disease is serious but rare. Rapid identification, antibiotics for close contacts, and vaccination are the key control measures. Public health systems are designed for exactly this.

UKHSA just confirmed the Kent meningococcal outbreak has now reached 34 total cases under active accounting

@CoronaHeadsUp Large Swedish cohort study shows increased hospitalised EBV after COVID. That’s an epidemiological association. It is not direct evidence of a “weakened immune system.” Mechanism remains to be established.

Sweden: Coronavirus might have had more far-reaching effects than previously believed "We were surprised that even people who did not have severe symptoms but tested positive for COVID-19 appear to develop a weakened immune system and a higher risk of, for example, glandular fever. It may also be that the coronavirus further increases the risk of chronic fatigue." "A large proportion of those we studied were relatively young. This may suggest that the coronavirus had a stronger impact on younger people, particularly concerning the immune system and the risk of glandular fever. It also implies that more effects of the virus might become evident later, mainly through an increase in cases of glandular fever," News Medical news-medical.net/news/20260317/…

CDC notes current COVID vaccines match predominant strains. A newer variant (BA.3.2) shows immune escape in lab studies, which warrants surveillance. But lab escape does not automatically mean loss of protection against severe disease. Note that: T-cell responses are less affected by spike mutations. Severe disease protection relies on multiple immune pathways.

@outbreakupdates Meningococcal bacteria is spread through close contact and exchange of respiratory secretions. Sharing drinks, cigarettes, or vaping devices can increase risk. It’s not the vape itself, but the saliva exchange that matters.

UK meningitis outbreak just got worse. 20 cases 2 dead Double-digit hospitalizations All traced back to a single nightclub exposure window. Most students are unvaccinated against MenB. The vaccine rollout started in 2015 for infants. This cohort missed it.

@VicGovDH Legionnaires’ disease is not spread person-to-person. Outbreak control focuses on identifying and remediating contaminated water systems. It is important to distinguish this from respiratory viruses - the transmission dynamics are very different.

Investigations are underway into Legionnaires’ cases and the source of cases connected to Craigieburn area. The disease is not spread from person to person or by drinking contaminated water. To find out about symptoms and more information visit: go.vic.gov.au/4sjDKlJ

@GBNEWS Meningococcal outbreaks are serious, but they are well understood. Rapid antibiotics, contact tracing and targeted vaccination remain effective tools.

NHS 'cannot cope with another pandemic' warn top doctors - as surgeries across Britain issued urgent meningitis alert gbnews.com/health/pandemi…

A quick reminder about infectious diseases: When vaccination rates fall, diseases don’t disappear quietly — they come back. We’ve seen it with measles, pertussis, meningococcal disease and now sporadically with mpox variants. This isn’t theoretical. It’s predictable epidemiology. Prevention works. But only if we maintain it.

One of the most common mistakes in health reporting: Confusing association with causation. Two things can occur together without one causing the other. Ice cream sales and drowning both rise in summer. That doesn’t mean ice cream is dangerous. Epidemiology is largely about asking: What else could explain this?

@TorontoViewer @SketchesbyBoze “Seven years of brain ageing” makes a compelling headline. Always worth checking how the study actually defined and measured that before assuming we’ve all become markedly dimmer.

Every teacher I know personally is leaving the profession because students have become unteachable. They don’t read, they don’t talk to each other, they have no curiosity, no passion, no interest in learning. Giving kids unfettered access to screens has ruined a generation.

buenosairesherald.com/politics/argen… Argentina has formally announced its withdrawal from the WHO. Membership supports disease surveillance, outbreak coordination, vaccine regulation standards, and technical guidance. Leaving is a sovereign political decision, but infectious diseases don’t respect borders.

@CoronaHeadsUp National incident” doesn’t automatically mean unprecedented catastrophe. Meningococcal outbreaks happen, especially in student populations. What matters: the strain involved, vaccination status, and how quickly contacts receive antibiotics.

UK: 'Once in a generation' meningitis outbreak declared a national incident The NHS has escalated the outbreak to a national incident due to the "unprecedented explosion” of infections over one weekend Mirror Online mirror.co.uk/news/health/br…

Toronto has identified two travel-related cases of mpox clade Ib. This strain has been linked to outbreaks in parts of Central/Eastern Africa and a small number of travel-related cases elsewhere. Current advice suggests clade Ib is less severe than clade Ia. These are travel-related cases, so not evidence of widespread local transmission.

Could certainly do without this. A new clade of mpox has been found in Canada. cp24.com/local/toronto/…

The UK will use 600,000 doses of Sanofi’s protein-based COVID vaccine (Nuvaxovid) in its Spring 2026 booster campaign. Protein-based vaccines offer an alternative platform and can improve uptake among those hesitant about mRNA. It’s disappointing that Australians currently don’t have access to the same choice.

Novavax's COVID vaccine is making its way back to the UK in the spring. thepharmaletter.com/biotech-news/s…

@CoronaHeadsUp The Kent meningitis outbreak appears to be group B (MenB). Meningococcal B is covered by MenB vaccines, offered in infancy in the UK and available privately for adolescents/young adults. Close contacts receive urgent antibiotics. Rapid public health response is key.

UK: Strain behind Kent Meningitis outbreak seems to be group B known as MenB, UKHSA says BBC News bbc.co.uk/news/live/ce8n…

NZ’s first population survey suggests: ~12% of infected adults reported symptoms ≥3 months at some point ~4% of adults were currently symptomatic at survey time Data are self-reported and long COVID has no single diagnostic test. The key figure for health planning is current burden — about 1 in 23 adults.

Aotearoa NZ has reported it's first population survey (n=9,253) of Long-COVID prevalence. From July 2024 to June 2025, 11.9% of people aged 15+ infected by SARS-CoV-2 have experienced symptoms of Long-COVID (lasting 3 months or more). #finding2" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">health.govt.nz/publications/c…

A flu vaccine study is circulating claiming vaccination increased risk. Important context: it’s a single-season observational preprint - not a randomised trial. Vaccine effectiveness varies by strain match, timing, and population. One study does not outweigh decades of accumulated evidence. Always look at design and totality of data.

When you see “Disease X”, it doesn’t mean something new has been discovered. It’s a planning term used in pandemic preparedness to represent the next unknown threat. Public health planning always includes scenario modelling for pathogens we haven’t seen yet. It’s called risk management.

⚠️ BREAKING: Doctor Warns of 'Disease X' Could Trigger Next Global Pandemic Experts have warned this unknown disease could potentially cause a future global pandemic

Invasive meningococcal disease means the bacteria have entered the bloodstream or brain. It spreads via close respiratory contact. The risk is highest in infants, adolescents, and young adults, especially in shared accommodation including university residences. Vaccination remains the key preventive strategy.

Two university students are dead and 11 are 'seriously ill' in hospital amid 'invasive' meningitis outbreak trib.al/MhIyLtp