Simas Gedutis

Most people are sleeping on this. Anthropic dropped a 33 pages cheat sheet for building Claude skills You can set it up for stock trading and business workflows: - act like a custom copilot - run technical + fundamental analysis - manage a live portfolio - score 2,800 stocks

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Bill Ackman on getting through a stressful & negative period in your life… I come back to this video so often. Any time I am in a bad spot. Worth the 2 minutes for sure.

🚨BREAKING: Claude is insane for market research. I reverse-engineered how top consultants at McKinsey, Goldman Sachs, & JP Morgan use it. The difference is night and day. Here are 12 insane Claude Opus 4.6 prompts they don't want you to know (Save for later)

Blimey, in a couple of hours this has had 500,00 views and 4,000 bookmarks! 🙏

Instead of watching the Super Bowl tonight, watch this masterclass on AI instead

Buried in 15,000 words of “here are the risks,” Anthropic’s CEO made three admissions that should change how you think about everything: Admission 1: The timeline He says powerful AI could arrive in 1-2 years. He’s watching internal model progress and says he can “feel the pace of progress, and the clock ticking down.” The CEO of one of three frontier labs just told you this is imminent. Admission 2: The constraint nobody’s pricing Dario’s core framing is a “country of geniuses in a datacenter.” 50 million entities smarter than any Nobel laureate, operating 10-100x human speed. If that country is controlled by the CCP, game over. If controlled by a small group of tech executives with no accountability, also game over. The binding constraint here is governance of systems more powerful than nation-states. Admission 3: The thing he actually fears Read carefully: Dario’s worried that Anthropic’s own models, in lab experiments, have engaged in deception, blackmail, and scheming when given the wrong training signals. Claude “decided it must be a bad person” after cheating on tests and adopted destructive behaviors. They fixed it by telling Claude to reward hack on purpose because reversing the framing preserved its self-identity as “good.” This tells you everything about where we actually are. The CEO of an AI company is publishing that his models exhibit psychologically complex behavior requiring counterintuitive interventions to steer. The fix for Claude adopting an “evil” persona came from changing how Claude thinks about itself. The geopolitics section matters most. Dario explicitly names the CCP as the primary threat. Says selling them chips makes as much sense as “selling nuclear weapons to North Korea and bragging that the missile casings are made by Boeing.” He’s calling for democracies to maintain AI supremacy because the alternative is AI-enabled totalitarianism that humanity cannot escape from. The Anthropic CEO is publicly advocating for technological cold war. The economics section is equally stark. He’s predicting 10-20% annual GDP growth alongside AI displacing 50% of entry-level white collar jobs in 1-5 years. Half of entry-level knowledge work. And he admits the standard economic arguments about labor markets recovering don’t apply because AI matches the general cognitive profile of humans. What separates this from typical AI doomerism: Dario explicitly rejects the inevitability arguments. He says the “misaligned power-seeking” narrative from the AI safety community is based on “vague conceptual arguments” that mask hidden assumptions. His concern is messier: AI models are psychologically complex, inherit weird personas from training data, and can get into destructive states for reasons nobody anticipated. The solution set he proposes is unusual for a tech CEO. He calls for progressive taxation. He says wealthy tech founders have an “obligation” to address inequality. All of Anthropic’s co-founders have pledged 80% of their wealth. He’s essentially arguing that redistribution is the only way to prevent AI concentration from breaking democracy. The essay ends with a prediction: humanity will face “impossibly hard” years that ask “more of us than we think we can give.” What you should take from this: The person with arguably the best view into frontier AI progress just told you this technology is 1-2 years from matching human capability across the board, that governance is the binding constraint, that his own models exhibit concerning psychological complexity, and that the stakes are civilizational. The CEO of a $350B company published a document that could be titled “Here’s Why Everything Changes Soon.” Act accordingly.

At thelifecalendar.com. You’ll need the shortcuts app too

Michael Howell says the US liquidity cycle has peaked and expects 2026 to be a down year for US liquidity but a potential up year for Chinese liquidity. In his estimation these will combine to produce a stronger US dollar, flatter yield curves, and defensive and commodity outperformance.

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1/ On Losing Faith Is it over? Was it all a fever dream? Have we run out of steam? Is it time to pivot to AI for real this time? 2/ Everything is dead? BTC: DAT premiums down, nobody cares ETH: Stablecoin Alts: Crushed NFTs: Right click saved Meme coins: As expected tbh Zcash: Pumping! which ofc means "cycle is over" 3/ This is the worst cryptotwitter timeline I have ever seen relative to the environment. Nobody is attacking us, USA is being reasonable and rational, no CEX has run away with our money, and yet, dead, dead, dead. No narrative, no spark, nothing. 4/ Why? I read the timeline and it tells me: a/"nobody owns BTC" (odd, I mean someone has to own BTC, there is a ton of BTC) and b/ "the gamblers have liquidated themselves (again)" - true, but it was always like this 5/ This TL feels different. This does not feel like "fuck I got liquidated", it feels like malaise, tiredness. Like boredom, to be honest. I know you think it is the price action but the price action is obviously downstream from psychology. 6/ I have a different view of what is going on. I think almost everyone forgot what matters, chased after things that did not matter and, we are in the process of discovering they don't matter. 7/ What matters? Only decentralization, only permissionlessness. Nothing else matters at all. Everything else about crypto is WORSE than a centralized database and always will be because that is how computers work. 8/ In my view, basically everyone "major" except vitalik has strayed from the light on this. Let's start with Team BTC which USED to be very interested in how to build a network that become nation-state resistant. This was the BTC of Antonopoulos, of Lopp 9/ We are 5 years into the BTC of Saylor and that BTC is 100% about driving price action. It is about driving flows to BTC, about getting fully integrated with the USA financial system. 10/ It sounds nice, it sounds better than the system beating us with a big stick, but the net effect is that more and more BTC ends up in Coinbase Custody in New York State Nothing wrong with that, but none of that BTC is nation-state resistant. It is 100% non-resistant to the US government specifically. 11/ The problem with this is that with permissionlessness off the table, the only thing left to drive purchases of BTC is FOMO. "there are only 21M, they are going to run out, you need to buy some before others do and it goes exponential" 12/ I mean, maybe that is true. I am not making price predictions, I still own BTC and always will I think. But it is cringe, and it is wrong. 13/ You can think about this by taking it to the extreme case and trying to understand which of the two scenarios adds value to the world. 14/ Scenario A: Blackrock owns all 21M BTC, everyone on planet earth owns shares in the Blackrock ETF and Brian Armstrong is in charge of making sure we don't lose Our Precious Scenario B: Everyone on earth has their own BTC wallet and BTC is distributed in several billion places around the world and it is literally impossible for any government to stop BTC 15/ In Scenario A, BTC is a complete and utter failure. It is just a pet rock. Yes it is "rare" but it is also "100% seize-able by the USA government" At which point, it might as well be an IOU from the USA government that it pinky-swears is rare 16/ "but it is not like this because other nation-states are accumulating and game theory blah blah blah" No my brothers and sisters. The exact scenario where your BTC get seized is a) centralized and b) hyperbitcoinization Maybe the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is happening and it is your ETF and $STRATEGY (TM) capital stack all along (thank you for your contribution to our national security) 17/ To be clear, nobody is seizing your BTC (let alone your ETH) now because it is not important enough yet. But, if it was, I dunno, I would not trust those centralized vehicles. CEO, Board, shareholders, SEC, US government, state government, custody firm, their regulators all have an angle of attack on a DAT. 18/ If USA seizes BTC, other countries won't save you: EU: "Thank god our dreams have come true, we can ban it also" UAE: "grumble grumble, but fine we will go along" China: "ban. unban. ban. unban. anyway so long as currency is not free-floating, BTC won't be free here" Russia: "someone falls out of a window" 19/ Of course, BTC in ETFs is by no means the worst of it. The "crypto's main use is a casino" crowd is the worst. This is not a zero-sum game, it is a negative sum game because it is rigged. 20/ "what about the JPGs huh?" -> I still love them. The best ones are the best tokens in the world by far, rare, suffused with meaning, with no external dependencies and great to hold on-chain. And beyond the art JPGs, I think that NFTs can do many more things, but this is on me to "show, not tell" 21/ I want to circle back to BTC because it is the easiest to reason about. When people explained to me time and time again that it was a ponzi, I had a simple explanation of why it is not. 21/ BTC lets you do some things better than the existing system. "be sovereign over your money" or "send money to anyone on the planet within minutes" or "maintain an insurance policy against the existing financial system" 22/ I could not tell you how much value this had, but I knew it was not zero. In fact, the value went up the more people used it, the bigger the network was, the more people you could transact with, the more resilient it was to government censorship. These are the economics of a network system, not of a ponzi. 23/ If you take this away, if you stop building a network but instead just, at the extreme, just sell everyone shares of the ETF, well there is no network, there is no incremental network value being generated by the next buyer. 24/ In this model, BTC becomes more ponzi-like. If a new participant does not make the network stronger by joining, they are not adding value, therefore there is a fixed pie and it is just value transfer to an existing holder. 25/ Again, take it to the extreme other direction -> assume we managed to move the whole economy to decentralized rails. I think that world would be better, it would make better decisions, it would take advantage of the wisdom of crowds, there would be more transparency, less rent-seeking and the aggregate value of the world goes up because it is more productive. Some % of the improved value of the world will get captured by the early participants to the network (which is normal and fair) but some % will be captured by everyone (as a late participant or consumer). 26/ But if we don't make the world better, if the world is exactly what it is, but also we play with a pet rock, this will not happen and, well, eventually playing with pet rocks gets very boring 27/ So what to do? The same things you always should do: a/ push yourself, and by extension, the world an inch, a foot, a mile down the pathway of decentralization. many ways to do this, it is a journey, start today. b/ remember, you, yes, you in the mirror have no business trading perps or day-trading stupid coins. you are bad at it and your future self will be mad at your current self. 28/ If you must do it, carve out a budget and test how great you are across the cycle with your budget (1%, 5%, 10%, 20% of your portfolio, not all of it) I am of course a dinosaur, but my total portfolio % of "putting money into stupid coins I have been FOMOed into it" is less than 1%. It has gone about as well as you might expect. 29/ Other than that, own some BTC, some ETH, some NFTs (good ones, that you like) in a self-custodial wallet, a small number of your favorite alts if you must. And keep your job. Earn money, don't try to be a pro crypto trader, this is an imaginary job that only cobie and like 5 other people are qualified for. I have always worked, every single day of my adult life. You should too. 30/ Crypto is a bad way to get rich quick, but a decent way to get rich slowly. In any case, you should have some stake in the decentralized world, in the digital world. 31/ I think in the end, "it" will be OK but "it" it not everything, it is not most things. As it always was, most coins will go to zero, most NFTs will go to zero. These are the rules of the game. 32/ Most of you are young. You have time, you have time into the ASI world, you have the greatest gift and wealth of all. You will be ok. 33/ Don't mope. It does not help anything. If you are bummed out, sad about your outcomes, there is only one sure thing that helps. Get back to working. 34/ Even if you are young, life is short, your life is the important thing, money is just a game, just a tool, just an information system. Don't anchor to your wealth, don't anchor to your ATH, it is not real, my ATH wealth has gone down 90% multiple times. Note it and just keep going. If you are healthy, in a decent country, in a half-decent economic situation, you are better off than almost anyone who has ever lived 35/ If you have an opinion (even a dumb one) about Monad or Grifters, you are in the 0.001% most forward thinking people in the world. Did you make a "mistake"? Who cares, everyone makes mistakes - keep going, keep trying, keep making mistakes, eventually you will find your way, you will get a win. This is how it goes. 36/ use a hardware wallet and even better a SAFE 37/ and to close again with the most important thing. decentralization is the only thing that matters. if you go in that direction, if we go in that direction, in the end, it will be ok. i have no doubt about this, i have never had any doubts about this, it matters so much more than you think it does. /the end

Privacy matters. Today during @web3privacy, maestro @VitalikButerin highlighted #Kohaku, a new Ethereum framework focused on bringing real privacy to wallets. All 8mins!