svokes

'The music industry has spent a decade obsessing over how to get a million people to listen to a song once. The next decade will be defined by artists figuring out how to get 1,000 people to care forever.'

When simulation becomes the norm, it weakens the human capacity for discernment. As a result, our social bonds close in upon themselves, forming self-referential circuits that no longer expose us to reality. We thus come to live within bubbles, impermeable to one another. Feeling threatened by anyone who is different, we grow unaccustomed to encounter and dialogue. In this way, polarization, conflict, fear and violence spread. What is at stake is not merely the risk of error, but a transformation in our very relationship with truth.

There has been lots of talk about the current situation in Venezuela and what it could mean for global oil markets, so I just wanted to provide some nuance on this 🇻🇪 ⤵️ When people say “Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves,” as you undoubtedly have seen being thrown around a lot on here, they are technically referring to a specific accounting definition, not to a stock of easy, cheap barrels ready to flood the market. To unpack that, you need to get into what those reserves are, how they behave in the subsurface, what it costs to turn them into marketable liquids, and how price, technology, and above-ground risk interact. That's a lot to cover, but let’s give it my best shot. On paper, Venezuela has roughly 300–303 billion barrels of proved reserves, about 17 % of the global total and slightly more than Saudi Arabia. The critical detail is that around three quarters of that booked volume is extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt in eastern Venezuela. These are bitumen-like oils with API gravity typically in the 8–14° range, extremely viscous at reservoir conditions and with high sulfur and metals content. So the statement “largest reserves” is really “largest booked volumes of very challenging heavy and extra-heavy oil.” Technically recoverable versus economically recoverable is the first big distinction. The USGS has long estimated that the Orinoco Belt contains on the order of 900–1,400 billion barrels of heavy crude in place, with perhaps 380–650 billion barrels technically recoverable using existing technology. Venezuela and OPEC only book a subset of that as “proved,” but even those proved numbers are sensitive to the assumed oil price and development concept. When prices were strong in the 2005–2014 window, a large portion of Orinoco volumes became economic on paper and were reclassified as proved, driving the headline reserves from ~80 to ~300 billion barrels. Geology and fluid properties are the second big differentiator. Orinoco crudes are extra-heavy, with densities up around 934–1,050 kg/m³, high asphaltene content and sulfur on the order of 3–4 wt% or more, depending on the block. This is a completely different animal from a 33–40° API, low-sulfur Arab Light-style crude. In plain English, that means it's much harder to handle at various stages and each step adds capex, opex and energy use. In other words, the “barrel in the ground” in Venezuela is inherently worth less and depends on a narrower set of buyers. Surface systems and institutional capacity are another constraint. Before the 2000s, PDVSA had a reputation as a technically capable NOC. Since then, you have had a combination of mass layoffs and politicization, under-investment, sanctions, corruption and brain drain. The result is decayed gathering systems, chronic power shortages, refinery fires and upgrader downtime. Finally, integration with global refining and logistics matters for strategic value. Venezuela’s crude slate is optimized for complex “coking” refineries in the US Gulf Coast, parts of Asia and a few European plants. That's a story for another time though, because the length of this analysis is getting out of hand. So when you hear that Venezuela has “the world’s largest oil reserves,” the technically accurate part is that the country has extremely large volumes of extra-heavy oil in place, and a big subset of that was once judged economically recoverable at high price assumptions and booked as proved. The more relevant questions for energy strategy are how many of those barrels are genuinely economic under realistic long-term prices, how quickly they can be brought onstream given infrastructure and institutional constraints, what netback they deliver at the refinery gate, and how exposed they are to being left in the ground if demand peaks. On those metrics, Venezuelan barrels sit much further out on the cost and risk curve than the headline “largest reserves” soundbite suggests. I hope this provided some good context.

Another video of the Crans-Montana fire has emerged Dear parents, please, I beg you Beyond safety measures and pirate owners Teach your children one thing When faced with fire, drop the damn phone and run!!! Period

West Texas storm chaser Laura Rowe captured the picture of a lifetime, a fantastic shot of a mature supercell thunderstorm illuminated at varying heights by the setting sun.

I took my 14yr old daughter to see Prime Minister yesterday- she loved it. I thought it was excellent. It is a raw incredibly intimate portrayal of life in a huge job with some massive events to deal with. The battle she had breastfeeding Neve was heartbreaking. Highly recommend.

@flowirin @Bridgetpee Real estate agents in Auckland earn more than these public servants. Who delivers better value?

@Bridgetpee absolutely no sympathy. $340k is obscene

‘Well remunerated public servants’ is wearing thin. There’s no mention of the 12+ years of training to become a consultant and the ongoing training required. That’s in addition to the stress and huge hours demanded of our doctors, many getting paid for 40 hours but working 60

I don’t hold Nicola Willis responsible for the current economic conditions.I don’t believe that NZ would be okay if landlords hadn’t gotten their tax cut. However I feel disappointed in her grasp of the situation. Her blame of her inheritance, tariffs and wars was embarrassing. She failed to mention any of the key issues facing businesses including the issues with energy.

For every retweet of this post, I will donate £1 to the @VC_and_GC_Assoc up to £50,000. Time is running out following @I_W_M’s decision to close the Lord Ashcroft Gallery. Visit while you still can, to honour the bravery of those who risked so much to protect our great nation.

NZs contribution to EuroX today.

me cause ye is beefing with carti

@MarkGraham_Akl I am a nutter who doesn’t believe we need more housing. I think we need infrastructure and facilities to fit the current population before we try to accomodate more.

@svokes Yeah - I think you could be right, but how to balance need for housing at the same time.🤷‍♂️

At the Save Avondale Racecourse meeting. Not many people here wanting housing I suspect. Cricket grounds and remote controlled airplanes FTW!

@MarlowNYC Breathtaking, but at least he is honest.

wow he’s even worse than anticipated

The cherry blossom is out in the hood. Providing beautiful spring vistas as well as sustenance to at least half of Auckland’s tūī population.

Can I suggest that every time NZTA decides to close the harbour bridge Auckland’s mojo deflates a little more. Continual closures of the bridge for ‘weather’ is frustrating and depressing. Time for a rethink? #auckland #harbourbridge #mojo

In honor of Gary Larson's birthday, here is my favorite Far Side Comic. Show me some of your favorites!!!

@SimeonBrownMP Bet the combined salaries of the team working on this issue could fund at least a couple of nurses.

I’ve asked Health New Zealand to review their policies on food available for purchase in hospitals. Healthy, nutritious food is important, but so is common sense, and banning marshmallows with a hot chocolate makes no sense at all.

Fascinating court case giving riveting insight into supermarkets, nappies and the Mowbrays. Highly recommended. nzherald.co.nz/business/compa…

This makes me sick. An innocent man suffers horrific injuries and dies. The owner of the illegal vehicle is rightly punished. But it is horrifying to see the outcome of ineffectual government agencies to get this vehicle off the road. nzherald.co.nz/nz/crime/auckl…