Mr. VIX

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Mr. VIX

Mr. VIX

@yieldsearcher

Fixed income background. Sharing thoughts on macro and global affairs (mostly for my own memo). Not a flow guy; NO investment/trading/financial advice.

New York, NY انضم Haziran 2009
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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher·
Confession: There was absolutely no thought process behind naming my acct Mr. VIX. This is a generalist macro commentary/entertainment account, and the name is not intended to portray any expertise in the subject whatsoever. But the name kinda stuck, so no plan on changing it.
Rattofix@KyotrixITALY

@yieldsearcher Hi @yieldsearcher , I've been following you for a short time, but do you ever analyze the VIX?

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Tom McClellan
Tom McClellan@McClellanOsc·
I have a different hypothesis. Inflation rates match the movements of global average temperatures (inverted), with a lag time of about 3 years. It was the cooling of the 60s and 70s that brought high inflation. And it was the warming of the 1980s, not Volcker, which solved it.
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Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher

Why the 1970s oil shocks were stagflationary? Nominal wages rose 6-9% even with high UR (6-8%) during the era. Strong unions and COLA kept wages tracking inflation, creating a vicious cycle. We do not have that kind of labor market today. Wage growth is lowest since COVID.

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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher·
@CCMarimba @GordianKnotDev Fastfood restaurants are suffering already. Doubtful they will be able to afford those minimum wage hikes. Why you dont see cashiers anymore at the kiosk anymore. So that is my answer on how minimum wage increase will affect labor demand.
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Eros Morales
Eros Morales@CCMarimba·
@yieldsearcher @GordianKnotDev Lots of states and cities have minimum wages linked to CPI. Will min wages rise more than usual without triggering much tightening of core PCE - driven monetary policy?
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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher·
Why the 1970s oil shocks were stagflationary? Nominal wages rose 6-9% even with high UR (6-8%) during the era. Strong unions and COLA kept wages tracking inflation, creating a vicious cycle. We do not have that kind of labor market today. Wage growth is lowest since COVID.
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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher·
If you think that supply disruption is going to magically inflate our wages by 30% and keep them employed and keep our corporate margins healthy, be my guest. We may have a brief stag, but more likely we will have a recession if this supply disruption lasts. Core PCE did not move up an inch when oil went from $60 to $140 in 2007-08.
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Gordian Knot Dev (e/acc)
Gordian Knot Dev (e/acc)@GordianKnotDev·
The 1970s oil shock didn’t have 20% of global fertilizer being stranded either, not to mention there was no LNG being delivered en masse globally then and now 30% of global supply has been taken offline. You really have to be an Olympic level athlete when it comes to playing deflation mental gymnastics.
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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher·
@pseudostokastic The US GDP was growing at 4-5% real in the 50s and 60s. 2.5-3.0% real looks normal now but it was a meaningful slowdown at the time.
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Grey
Grey@pseudostokastic·
@yieldsearcher 2.5-3% growth is why we call it the stagflationary era? You must be thinking of nominal. The 2.5-3% is real
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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher·
@over_unity_ Problem is they include our most influential policymakers.
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Astro Not
Astro Not@charliedotts·
@yieldsearcher You think retail absorbed every tick in a way that perfectly held the put wall today? Retail was slamming /ES futures all day? This is option hedging activities executed at HF and it will all be barfed on Sunday night
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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher·
I am mindful that their new auditor BDO gave an unqualified opinion on their financials, but not on their internal controls.
Wall St Engine@wallstengine

$SMCI disclosed that federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York have charged three people tied to the company in an alleged export-control conspiracy. Supermicro was not named as a defendant. The company placed two employees on administrative leave, cut ties with a contractor, and is cooperating with the investigation.

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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher·
@kl3dger Never ending dry powder
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Dr. Eli David
Dr. Eli David@DrEliDavid·
How incompetent is the French military? A sailor on Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier just revealed its location by using a fitness tracker (Strava) while jogging on the ship's deck 🤣 Source: Le Monde
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JunK_OperatoR
JunK_OperatoR@JunK_OperatoR·
Rumor on the street many junior employees dropping lately. Not good. Health is precious.
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Mr. VIX
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher·
@JunK_OperatoR You got me sold. If these alien disclosures come true, TLT is $200!
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JunK_OperatoR
JunK_OperatoR@JunK_OperatoR·
@yieldsearcher we had an honest convo at work today. If disclosure happened rates would rip on productivity. Software would go to zero. Insurance would fly. Autos would get smoked. Smaller cap tech gone.
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اكتشف

@McClellanOsc @CCMarimba @GordianKnotDev @pseudostokastic @over_unity_ @charliedotts @x980ux89hx8h @elonmusk