Tom Knowles retweetet
I know, I'm a weirdo, I'm already looking ahead at the Champions League games next Wednesday, but hear me out.
Leverkusen are priced at 1.80 to beat Villarreal, and it feels such a mad price.
Villarreal are already out of the Champions League, it's impossible for them to go through to the next round, but in the league they sit 3rd behind Barcelona and Real Madrid.
On Saturday at 8pm, they play Real Madrid, a huge game where a win could close the gap to the top of the table to just five points. They then play away in Germany on Wednesday (v Leverkusen) in what is essentially a dead rubber, before returning back to play Osasuna away on Saturday.
As for Leverkusen, as of writing they sit in 20th in the Champions League, anything below 24th and they'll be eliminated before the knockouts. They need to get a positive result in this to confirm their qualification to the next stage, without at least a draw, there's 12 teams that could leapfrog them in the table. There's nine teams that could leapfrog them even if they draw, so they'll be focused on the win.
I personally don't see why Villarreal wouldn't rotate for this game to focus on the league instead, especially with less than three days between their games, and that including a trip to Germany and then to Pamplona on the Saturday.
I know Leverkusen lost last night, but prior to that they've beat Man City 2-0 (when they weren't as bad) and drew 2-2 with Newcastle, whilst Villarreal haven't managed a single win across their seven UCL games, losing six of those.
I struggle to see how this pricing is bearing the situation in mind. Let me know what you think.
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