💎 Sunday morning Gem Bet 👉🏼 Simone Canestrelli fouls won 🏟️ Como v Pisa Price on 365 (v Paddy Power) - so I'd go with the latter to get value. • 1+ fouls won - 1.30 (v 1.91) • 2+ fouls won - 2.37 (v 4.50) • 3+ fouls won - 5.50 (v 15.0) As I mentioned in previous write up on Como, they're great for fouls and average over 14 per game. A lot of fouls come from the attacking players and that was evidenced in Como's last home match against Roma. Roma play three at the back and all three of their centre halves were fouled. Mancini (Who plays centrally like Pisa's Canestrelli), was fouled twice. Canestrelli will likely be against three forwards with great fouls averages. Nico Paz who averages 1.76 fouls committed per 90, Martin Baturina who we now know well averages 1.20 P/90, and Anastasios Douvikas who's a striker who features from the bench a lot has committed eight fouls in his last four - four of those fouls from the bench. Canestrelli averages 0.60 fouls drawn P/90, and Paddy Power have likely based the price on that, missing all of the key context around his position and who he'll be facing. With that said he has been winning fouls in recent weeks. He has won a foul in each of his last three matches and he won multiple in Pisa's last match against Cagliari. Stats for the central defender in Como's last four matches at home against sides who's played three at the back: • v Roma - Mancini 2+ fouls won • v Inter - Acerbi 1+ fouls won • v Lecce - Gabriel 1+ fouls won • v Atalanta - Scalvini 1+ fouls won The referee Luca Pairetto is an interesting one too. If you take out referees who've only officiated one game, he's the third-best referee in the entirety of Serie A for fouls, averaging a massive 28.56 per game. He's also strong for cards as it goes as he's averaging bang on 6.00 per game. Anyway, Canestrelli fouls won. It looks a great Gem ahead of the weekend and I wouldn't be shocked if the odds start to crumble not long after I have posted this. Let me know what you think. 18+, gamble responsibly
