B 1 6 6 E R

Almost nobody looks at this chart… but it’s one of my favorite ways to spot when a move may be running on fumes. This is a simple 60‑minute line chart of high yield vs SPY. I use it to track divergences between “smart money” (bonds) and “dumb money” (equities). The last major signal was at the bottom, high yield quietly started putting in a higher low while stocks were still puking. That helped flag the turn. Fast‑forward to now: $JNK and $HYG are not confirming this latest push in SPY. Stocks are pressing higher, high yield is stalling out. That doesn’t guarantee a top, but when "Smart Money" refuses to play along, I take note.

@dampedspring @4blkswans I’m not implying you’re going to lose I mean your strategy for losing do you stay at that size or size down?

@APE8FUNGUS @4blkswans Talk to me in 2 months.

Me taking one look at Hyper-liquid SPX down 50bp. I'm max bearish but trading down on Hyperliquid based on some weekend Iran news is BULLISH.

@dampedspring @4blkswans Do you scale down after a loss or keep a 4% position size??

@4blkswans Oof. Max short is 4% of AUM with 2-6 months puts.

A face melter starts soon.

There’s your 2% ✌️

$INTC +110%. $ARM +93%. $AMD +50%. your savings account: +2.2%

The market is absolutely brutal. Most people think there is only one way to get screwed i.e. stocks in your portfolio tank. But imagine not buying a single stock when they were down and witnessing this historic rally that makes no sense. You buy you're gonna get burned - if you don't buy, you feel left out. We've seen capitulation rallies like this before. They can last for many months. - '99 - '00 - '06 - '07 - '20 - '21 Don't get burned trying to participate casually. Everything from here should be absolutely deliberate and tightly risk managed. Shorting at the wrong time can f*ck you, longing something with leverage that pulls back can f*ck you, buying a stock heavily that you missed the entire way up can f*ck you. Lost decades (if they happen) are overblown - unless you do the wrong thing at the wrong time with the wrong size.

keep full porting puts its working so well $SPY

Its pretty rare to have divergence of this nature between the Nasdaq and the DJIA The last time I could find one this prominant was at the 2000 Top

@candleboxlaw A MF DAWG!

SPY to the tick

The BEST MAGIC REACTIONS with CAPTAIN AMERICAWK 😱 #magic #funny #fyp #foryou #comedy

INTEL JUST MADE A MOVE, IN ONE MONTH, THAT IS EQUIVALENT TO '2000 DOTCOM' BUBBLE MOVE WHICH TOOK ONE YEAR TO MAKE #INTC

$HFWA 1st quarter eps. sec.gov/Archives/edgar…

@MikeBurgersburg @dampedspring Puts went absolutely vertical today Would’ve been an epic trade if I he’s on ten more mins or so I’m surprised they saved it for mid day instead of rinsing out the gate

@dampedspring Going to be legendary if this marked the top

@Topps This would be cool if Helen Keller was real