Alastair Crooke

🇮🇷⚔️ 🇮🇱Israel’s Somaliland gambit for war with Iran In December 2025, Israel made a surprising move by recognizing Somaliland’s independence and establishing relations. The reason is now coming into focus: Israel was already bracing for all-out war with Iran. Limited access to the Strait of Hormuz made sense for Israel as well: 🌏 Global oil and gas prices are spiking, driving up fuel and electricity costs. While Israel can rely on its own natural gas, it has no domestic oil. Nearly 46% of its oil comes from Azerbaijan—and with energy logistics under threat, prices at the pump are rising. 🌏 Asian goods routed through the UAE’s Dubai megaport are now out of reach amid the logistics collapse. That means fewer imports and higher prices for consumers in Israel. To offset the disruption, Israel needed a secure maritime corridor through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the closest Arabian Sea shipping route to the Red Sea and the port of Eilat. Even if the Houthis entered the war and closed both the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb to shipping heading towards Eilat, Israeli ships would be able to enter ports in Somaliland, as they have already established bilateral relations. 👍