Adem Kassie Abebe (Dr)

@gateteviews I don't think Egypt will ever wage a direct war on Ethiopia. Their strategy is destabilization. Interesting stuff- historical Rwanda. Does this mean we need a sort of a "collegial" leadership? Abiy (and many leaders across our continent) doesn't seem to like sharing the shine 😉

Posturing aside, Egypt cannot defeat Ethiopia in battle. In spite of a visibly superior arsenal, Egypt's aging army is too politicised and last fought in the Yom Kippur War, in 1973 - which they lost. The Ethiopian army hasn't stopped fighting - against itself, that is. The weakness of the Ethiopian army is in its disunity. If Abiy addresses that, they'd become one of the strongest armies on the continent. To remain strong, ancient Rwanda had a "three kings circle": The Fighter King (Kigeli/Ruganzu) - the Unifier King (Yuhi) - and the Prosperer King (Mutara) and repeat. You need resources and unity to win a war. They ruled for about 30 years each, and the dynasty lasted for about 1000 years...

My latest piece problematizes the AU's neglect of undemocratic elections as a form of an unconstitutional change of government, with Tanzania's recent elections as a case study. Inspired by excellent work done by @ChidiOdinkalu & @AdamAbebe on the subject verfassungsblog.de/african-union-…

Interested in understanding #constitution-al change in #Africa? Happy to share my article which is now officially out Including for #Ethiopia-ns, as constitutional change through #referendum, outside of the regular amendment process, appears a possibility cambridge.org/core/journals/…

You don't seem to understand the bigger problem - the arbitrariness with which these tariffs are imposed. It is 10% on Eth now. Could be 50% tomorrow. Without a level of security that deals will be respected, few will have the courage to invest, especially in troubled places.

Great opportunity for emerging scholars working on judging and the courts

@Ab1Tawn ስርአት ደግሞ የሆላንድ ወይም ያውሮፓዊ ብቻ ሳይሆን፣ የማንም የተደራጀ ማህበረሰብ ፍላጎት ነው። ኢትዮፕያዊው ገብረ ህይወት ባይከዳኝ ከመቶ አመት በፊት ስለስርአት መርቅ የሆነች ጹሁፍ ጽፉዋል!

@Ab1Tawn ወይ አልገባኝም ወይ ግራ ገብቶኛል ፡) I want Abiy (and all leaders) to succeed, not for his own sake, but because his success means a better country for all of us. ሁሉም መሪ ግን የሚሳሳት ሰው ነው. So በዘፈቀደ (individual whim) ሳይሆን በስርአት (systems and law)!

Ultimately, a society can't leave public processes to discretion of one person. Even good things– like giving poor persons houses- must be done based on rules. We should know in advance how a poor person is selected among many poor souls (otherwise, it is mere politicking)-9

Notably, institutional choices should be based on elite dialogues, subject to broad public understanding/ support. If the ostensible resort to the public is to bypass elite dialogue, rather than discipline such dialogue, it can be dangerous - like now -8

#Abiy called on Tegaru to nominate names for interim president. May be he will also seek public input on whether to keep the Mayor of Addis or presidents of the other regions :) As expected, #TPLF has rejected this as contrary to the #Pretoria Agreement -1

The selective resort to direct public will can be seen as a sham (conscious or sub-conscious) – especially when this is done based on individual discretion (በዘፈቀደ). Ultimately, democracy is as much about the people as it is about elite dialogue - 7

Consider also the major economic policy reforms, the move towards ethnic ‘equalisation’ of the civil service in Addis Ababa etc where the public largely had virtually no opportunities to provide inputs- 6

Even efforts that can potentially have public backing, while reducing public anxiety– eg Oromiffa lessons in Addis schools, ‘corridor’ devt – are often imposed top-down. Even directly affected people are given a mere days/weeks’ notice period to demolish their homes livelihoods-5

This ostensible invocation of the popular will contrasts with the practical disregard of the public in policy/ decision making, lack of transparency and accountability - 4

Abiy gave in to pressure to remove Getachew, but is not willing to endorse their nominee. Officials may claim Abiy’s call democratically empowers the people. Gedion has also indicated that the Dialogue Commission should speak with the people, not ‘self-appointed’ elites-3

Whatever the intention, Abiy's move will lead to same challenges as before – interim president and party leader won’t be same persons, leading to inevitable power struggles. And is arguably contrary to the Pretoria accord which calls for decision based on 'political diaogue'- 2

The Ethiopian Ruler of Maharashtra Malik Ambar, buried a five minute walk from the Ellora Caves, is of the most extraordinary figures in world history.

The "new" #America seems to be bringing Europe together, and potentially even East Asia. There are probably similar talks in Latin Ame, and the Middle East should also find a way to live together and prosper together - especially Saudi Arabia, Iran Egypt. reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

@ZiryabJ I think the law is besides the point- has been for long. In any case, Abiy can legally remove Getachew and endorse whoever the faction appoints as interim leader till elections. Tigray was the only region where head of party and head of govt were d/t, creating problems we see.

@AdamAbebe Can the fed govt legally acknowledge this faction which has seized power? Or will it be contingent on the intl community accepting the status quo there?

#Tigray #Ethiopia #Amhara #Eritrea Faction Debretsion has effectively taken control of Tigray. What next? 1. Abiy may consider suspending budget, services etc, or even impose a blockade 2. TPLF may try to retake Welkait- partly to boost morale of a weary Tegaru public -1