Patricia Marins@pati_marins64
The Israeli Strike Near Iran’s Reactor is an Ominous Signal
The US and Israel find themselves cornered with dwindling options and growing desperation.
This is evident in their attacks on Iran’s electrical grid and their calculated attempt to shift the Overton Window toward the nuclear threshold.
The statement by Trump advisor David Sacks, suggesting Israel could escalate the conflict with nuclear options, coincides with a missile strike landing just 350 meters from the Bushehr reactor.
This isn’t just a warning; it’s a veiled threat.
It’s a trial balloon designed to gauge the global reaction to such a catastrophic possibility.
A direct hit on an Iranian reactor would inevitably force Iran to retaliate against Dimona, leading us into a spiral of nuclear escalation, but what if Dimona be empty?
As global opinion is being tested, this "window" is being meticulously shifted and calibrated.
Currently, US-Israeli options, beyond aerial bombardment, include sector-specific ground operations. But what if these operations end in disaster?
Even a NATO intervention might change nothing. In Libya, European NATO forces depleted their ammunition in about 10 days during a low-intensity conflict.
Today, Rheinmetall claims European stockpiles are bone-dry. While I usually take Rheinmetall’s claims with a grain of salt, this time it actually makes sense.
We are looking at a scenario of severe ammunition shortages against a heavily entrenched and well-armed Iran.
Any landing operation would be a bloodbath. I believe that, faced with mounting internal and external failures, the US and Israel will gradually push the Overton Window to a choice between total defeat or the use of tactical nuclear weapons, in the event of a catastrophic failure of ground operations.
Tactical nuclear weapons are strictly forbidden for use, yet their radiation dissipates within weeks in the current environment.
Even so, it would constitute a grave war crime. I do not believe the U.S. would embark on such a path, but I cannot say the same for Israel.
Ending the war with Iran still possessing enriched uranium would be equivalent to admitting that Netanyahu, instead of increasing his people's security, did the exact opposite. The internal pressure would be immense.
If nothing goes as planned and the death toll rises, I feel this window can shift much faster.
