Apollo Research

Post 1000: a 🧵(1/x) Short $NNNN - we all know it's china scam and fake, but it's blatantly so. How SEC could sleep on this I can't understand. Fake adresses directly in the F1-filing, alleged but nonexistent IVD products + customers A company with a market cap of 2 billion 🤡

@CapitalHubens I rarely do: 1. I dont want to "pull" people into trades, just because I personally like that particular setup 2. I often trade microcaps, crowding a specific trade is a recipe for desaster 3. I'm not posting for fame but to give back to the community I learned from

@ApolloResearchC Next time put the trades live on here then people believe even more you are legend!

People in private ask me how exactly I'm making money in the market. Example of a niche trade that was weird but worked out great (+60%). "free money." Longer post: $NINE/ $NNIE went bankrupt some weeks ago and just IPOed today as a new company at a price of about $10 . I shorted the company when they announced a prepackaged (speedy) bankruptcy. The problem with bankruptcies is that you’ll never exactly know what happens in court or how long it takes. I’ll spare you the technicalities, but in this case the bonds of $NINE were an attractive hedge for a few different reasons. Closed the short when it dropped to $0.02, but then I read that bondholders would be entitled to receive shares of the emerging company, which they planned to list publicly. Senior secured noteholders usually get prioritized in Chapter 11. So I bought even more bonds. The math was attractive. Some weeks go by and I receive $NNIE for my bonds. Today they IPO again, stock hits as high as $10.50, and I sell my stake in the $10s. Return on the trade: 60%. For every $1,000 invested in bonds, you’d get about 160 shares, which you could have sold for ~$1,600 today. Yes, you can’t size these trades big. But big enough to be attractive for most people.

*Needless to say, the +60% doesn’t include the return from the $NINE short itself.

@ZeeContrarian1 The biggest gripe I have with this stat/chart is that it ignores the fact the SP500 itself has become extremely tech focused in the past 7 years. So obviously the difference is less big now. Doing the same stat with SP500 equal weight and the picture will be vastly different.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝘆𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝗣/𝗘 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘀 For something to be true, it has to always be true. Take gravity. Whether you believe in it or not, an object will fall. Take Isaac Newton’s laws. They work consistently, regardless of sentiment, narrative, or opinion. Markets are not like that. Price-to-earnings ratios are said to matter. But if something truly mattered, it would matter all the time. Just look at tech. It was trading above 30x P/E, everyone was buying, and now it’s closer to 20x and no one is buying. Exactly because P/Es don’t matter. It’s all about sentiment over everything else. Some of you will say, well, over the long term, P/Es matter. But look at $IGV. All those SaaS companies with predictable future cash flows are now trading at all-time low P/Es. Most of what seems relevant today won’t be relevant in the future. A forward P/E today can look a lot worse tomorrow. And the more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that stock picking doesn’t matter either. What matters is having the right ETF, the right sector, the right trend. Bill Ackman is down 20% year to date, and we can all agree he’s a better stock picker than most of us. P/Es don’t matter. Stock picking doesn’t matter, unless you’re lucky or riding a trend. This is why nobody beats the S&P 500 over the long run. An average surfer who catches a big wave at the beginning can look like the best surfer in the world. But once the wave fades and the luck runs out, finding another one becomes almost impossible, and repeating that performance is even harder.

$NOTE $NOTEQ Analysts are 🤡 Stock got delisted today to OTC because it has been below $1 too long after multiple reverse stock splits 😂

Pleased to issue a unique forensic report on Bunge Global SA (NYSE: $BG) a cash deficient, levered and questionable roll-up in the agribusiness #food sector. We believe the business is under pressure from multiple factors and that the $10bn acquisition of Viterra from Glencore is injured. We estimate revenue and EBITDA targets were missed by -16.7% and -24% last year and that Bunge's real leverage is 5.7x and not 1.9x Net Debt / EBITDA as promoted. We believe Bunge's cash flow is not covering its dividend and see 55%-80% downside risk potential. The report is live on our website sprucepointcap.com

I've waited a long long time for this short report. A company I encountered in my early 20s that I've been following for a quarter century, the time is now to raise my hand. The report will be available live at sprucepointcap.com tomorrow, Wed March 25th.

$MPT bear cave short

$AC $AC.PA down as much as 11% following @ResearchGrizzly short report on the company Great finds by Grizzly regarding dubious practices by Accor

Accor $AC $AC.PA down more than 7% following an incriminating report by Grizzly research indicating that Accor hotels accommodate problematic requests in child exploitation and other illegal practices.

Hol fuck $AC $AC.PA

@BearCaveEmail @StockJabber 👀👀👀

Tomorrow at 10:30am ET, The Bear Cave will publish an investigation into a multi-billion-dollar retiree favorite that is still off the radar for many ...faces allegations of concerning conduct, and The Bear Cave will present evidence of significant stress in the company’s core 👀

If you entered a $SOFI short a minute after the @muddywatersre report release and held for exactly 30 minutes, you made a chill 5%. Great report and let's see what $SOFI has to say about the accounting issues.

great report with accounting deep dive on $SOFI by MuddyWaters. Suggest everyone long this stock to give it a good read. Down roughly 6% since release. Last reports by Muddy closed down double digits 😎

MW is short $SOFI. We believe SOFI is a financial engineering treadmill—not a healthy origination business. GE Capital-style marks, Enron-esque off-balance-sheet structures, and relentless dilution. muddywatersresearch.com/research/2026/…

muddywaters short $SOFI

intuitive.com/en-us/about-us… The cyber security incident statement doesn't include the whole list of specifics, but I have a mail with the specifics from Intuitive to an affected surgeon.

$ISRG Intuitive had a ton of data leaked. Includes clients names, email + phone numbers and more, general specifics about da Vinci programs and trainings including "Quantify the impact" as well as details of commercial contracts 👀 They didn't issue a PR to news outlets yet.