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🤩 A massive Thursday night as we start the #WorldCupQualifiers
⚽️ The Ultra picks his best bets 👇
🇨🇿 CZECH REPUBLIC V REPUBLIC OF IRELAND 🇮🇪
7.45pm The World Cup Playoff Semi-Finals kick off on Thursday night and we have a massive night for the Home Nations on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Wales are all in action – only Wales are odds on, and there’s plenty of layers for them too. We kick off the night with the Republic of Ireland travelling to Prague to take on Czech Republic. The Boys in Green come into this game on the back of one of the most remarkable qualification runs in recent memory. Heimir Hallgrimsson's side were staring into the abyss going into the final stretch of Group F - but wins over Portugal and then Hungary in the most dramatic fashion imaginable saw them through. Troy Parrott dramatically completed his hat-trick by scoring a last-minute winner in a thrilling 3-2 win in Budapest, and there is a sense that this Irish side is riding a genuine wave of momentum and belief right now. However, that week does gloss over the fact that Ireland have been quite poor for a while now, but Czech Republic are also a reasonably limited side - this represents a chance to return to the World Cup for the first time since 2006.
It's no surprise that Czech Republic come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. Czech Republic are 2.08 with Republic of Ireland 4.0 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. Czech Republic scored plenty of goals in qualifying, but they did have an easy Group – they had Faroe Islands, Montenegro and Gibraltar in a Group which Croatia topped. They are an organised side with real quality in key positions and home advantage is obviously important; however Ireland tend to be better away from home because they can counter-attack much better. They lack quality when sides sit back, and it will be absolutely fascinating to see how the tactics play out here. This feels like a very tight game. Czech Republic's home record is solid, but Ireland are a side used to winning ugly when their backs are against the wall, and underdogs mentality has been proven twice recently! I do feel the 2.08 on the home win is a little short, and I expect the game to be closer than those odds suggest – from a value point of view I’m happy to lay Czech Republic.
The Ultra Says: Two points lay (liability) Czech Republic to beat Republic of Ireland at 2.08 with Betdaq Exchange.
🇮🇹 ITALY V NORTHERN IRELAND
7.45pm Next we have Italy hosting Northern Ireland, and it’s fair to say that most football fans will be expecting an easy home win here. The stakes could hardly be higher for the Azzurri. No major footballing nation carries more playoff baggage into any game than Italy right now. The four-time World Cup winners have not appeared at a World Cup since their group-stage exit in Brazil in 2014 - that is twelve years without World Cup football for the Azzurri. They lost a playoff to Sweden in 2017, then were shockingly beaten by North Macedonia at home in 2022. To lose a third consecutive World Cup playoff would be catastrophic for Italian football; you could say there’s little chance of that on paper, but sure you would have said that about the North Macedonia game! It’s easy to see Italy aren’t the force of old – I would say that they are going through a period of transition, but it’s felt like that for a while now. They finished second in qualifying Group A behind Norway - losing twice to Erling Haaland's side, but Northern Ireland only earned their playoff spot through the Nations League route after finishing third in qualifying Group A behind Germany and Slovakia. They tend to struggle away from home too.
Northern Ireland’s game plan here will be quite simple. Defend deep, stay compact, frustrate Italy, and hope for a set-piece or counter-attack. It is exactly the template North Macedonia used to devastating effect in 2022, and that memory will be haunting every Italian player and supporter. Nevertheless, Italy come into the game as the red-hot favourites. Italy are trading 1.29 with Northern Ireland 14.5 and the draw is 6.0 at the time of writing. It’ll be interesting to see if Gattuso's deliberate choice to play in Bergamo - using Atalanta's New Balance Arena rather than Rome pays off – the idea that it is a psychological move designed to harness a tighter, more intense atmosphere. Italy should win this and probably will. But the 1.29 doesn’t jump off the page as value, and the trauma of those two Playoff exits will affect the atmosphere if Italy don't score early. Northern Ireland will be very negative, and Under 2.5 goals is worth a small bet at 2.07 in what could be a tight and tense affair.
The Ultra Says: One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.07 with Betdaq Exchange.
🏴 WALES V BOSNIA 🇧🇦
7.45pm We round off Thursday night with Wales hosting Bosnia. As I said above, Wales are the only Home Nation odds on to win – they are trading 1.97 with Bosnia 4.7 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Wales are hoping to reach a second successive World Cup finals for the first time in their history, and Craig Bellamy's side come into this game with high hopes and close to a fully fit squad – though they have a few worries. The atmosphere in Cardiff will be rocking, and Wales performed very well in qualifying too. They gave Belgium a good go at topping the Group, and secured a seeded position and home advantage with a sensational 7-1 thrashing of North Macedonia in their final qualifying match. Home advantage here is a massive factor for Wales - they have been a lot more comfortable in front of their own fans and are obviously very hard to beat in Cardiff. On paper, this is a very favourable draw for Wales, but while Bosnia are ranked pretty lowly, they are not to be taken lightly. They narrowly missed out on automatic qualification after Austria pipped them to top spot in Group H, and they lost just one of their eight qualifying fixtures.
Even though this is a one-off tie, it’s hard to see Bosnia come here to play an open game. They will likely sit in and aim to frustrate Wales – push the game as deep as possible. They managed a draw away to Austria in qualifying, but in general they don’t win many games away from home. Most European football fans will know Edin Dzeko - 40 years old and winning his 147th cap – leading the Bosnia attack, but they hardly banged in the goals for fun in qualifying outside of San Marino. I feel Wales will have to make a lot of running here, and Under 2.5 goals is definitely of interest at 1.73. The other option has to be the Wales win at 1.97 – a win for Wales sets up what could be an incredible Path A final at home against either Italy or Northern Ireland – and indeed, I actually couldn’t put anyone off either bet. I do feel there is value in the Unders position, but obviously in a one-off tie you could see carnage at the end. I feel Wales is the best option here – they are playing the better football, have home advantage and bring some very good momentum into the game. I’d have them closer to 1.9.
The Ultra Says: Two points win Wales to beat Bosnia at 1.97 with Betdaq Exchange.
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