井上｜Inoue

"Underlying" is the operative word. There's no single inflation rate. Headline CPI, core, core services ex-housing, supercore, trimmed mean. Each one tells a different story depending on what you want to see (Ang, 2014: inflation is not one thing). Shelter lags real-time rents by 12 to 18 months. Services ex-shelter runs on wages. Goods inflation is energy passthrough and tariffs. Saying tariffs aren't the cause while the goods line is still running hot is a convenient framing for a Fed seat candidate. Warsh is telling us which number he'll cite to justify the next cut. That's what matters here, not whether he's right.

Here's the part people miss about food inflation. Agricultural commodities have an inflation correlation of roughly -4% (Ang, 2014). Food isn't priced off inflation. It's priced off energy. Nat gas drives fertilizer. Diesel drives planting, harvest, transport. LNG drives drying and storage. When the energy side breaks, grains follow by 6 to 12 months with a lag. So "food price shock" from an LNG chief isn't really about food. It's about energy supply already being broken, and the bill showing up on a different line item two quarters out.

Up double digits 10 out of 13 days isn't just a gamma squeeze. That's the dealer side getting forced into buying delta as the name climbs, which pushes it further, which forces more buying. The feedback loop runs until either the gamma drains or somebody on the wrong side of the book gets margin called. Archegos wasn't really an equity story. It was a prime brokerage leverage story. Multiple dealers extending swap exposure to the same book, nobody seeing the full position. Losses don't show up smooth. They show up on a Friday afternoon when one bank calls margin and the rest find out at the same time (Ang, 2014 on crisis-time correlation convergence). If this is round 2, the tell won't be the chart. It'll be the dealer who goes quiet first.

Looks like Archegos is back for round 2 with CAR

紙パルプとか私鉄て、要はPBR1倍割れ＋不動産含み益の典型やわな やってることはシンプルで、企業の中に眠ってる非流動性資産、不動産等を市場がちゃんと値付けできてない状態を突いてる PBR1倍割れて、市場が「この会社の資産は額面通りの価値ないで」て言ってるてことやが、実際は経営サイドが資産を非効率に抱えてるから割り引かれてるだけやったりするんよね バリュー株が割安に放置される理由にはいくつかあると思うけど、そのうちの1つに、投資家が高成長企業に過度に注目した結果、割安に放置されてる企業は無視される傾向てのがある（Ang, 2014） アクティビストはこの行動バイアスを逆手に取って入る側や 直近のフジHDの不動産売却もまさにこれ 非流動性資産を企業の外に出して、取引間隔が10年クラスの非流動性プレミアム（年率約6%）を買い手側が丸ごと引き受ける構図になってる 野村絢氏がやってるんは株主に向き合わない会社への投資やなくて、構造的にミスプライスされてる非流動性資産への裁定や

BOJ is stuck between two fires and the ADB chief is stating the obvious side. Raise rates and JGB holders take a duration hit that bleeds through every regional bank balance sheet. Keep rates low and you import $110 oil inflation straight into CPI through a weak yen. Reinhart and Sbrancia (2011) called this financial repression. Negative real rates are a silent tax on savers. Japan's been running that tax for over a decade. The yen isn't under "pressure." It's doing exactly what it should when real rates stay negative while every other G7 central bank moved. The ADB warning isn't early. It's late.

Three to four cuts with Brent at $110 and a naval blockade feeding straight into CPI. That's not policy, that's pre-commitment. The Fed can push the front end. The long end is a different animal. Term premium responds to perceived supply shocks, credibility, and expected real rates (Vayanos and Vila, 2009). Cutting into a live energy shock tends to steepen the curve the wrong way, not anchor it. And inflation beta for developed market equities runs negative. Roughly -0.42 for North America (Ang, 2014). Large caps did 14.7% in low-inflation regimes versus 8.0% when it ran hot. A dovish Fed into supply-side inflation doesn't rescue equities. It picks which end of the duration stack eats the pain first. Miran's not calling a forecast. He's telling us which side of the trade the Fed will be on when this breaks.

希薄化0.7%は見かけの話やな 新株予約権はコールオプションやから、ダウンサイド無しでアップサイドだけを取れる非対称なペイオフやね これを6200人に配るんは、経営陣と従業員のリスク選好を意図的に引き上げる装置になるな モバイルで既にリスク積み上がってる中、もっと攻めたくなるような報酬構造を仕込んだわけや

こういう投資詐欺ってなかなか無くならんわな 最近知り合いに聞いた話やと、 「投資・出資した金額分を広告費として経費にもできる」 とかなんとか理由付けして『集金』しておったみたいで、最終的に「（集金した本人が）詐欺にあった」だとか「危ない事件に巻き込まれた」だとか、色々わけのわからん理由つけて返金されてないみたいや こんな脱税スキーム提案してくる奴、どう考えても詐欺師やろうよ 財務局への登録をしてない、登録が確認できやんような「人に金預けたらあかん」って、学校では教えてくれんもんな… リテラシー上げていかんと痛い目見るわ

60年間放置してたもんをいまさら改正するんか 国税庁の見直しは尤もやが、一つ気になるんは中小企業の事業承継問題 日本の中小企業は後継者不足で年間数万社が廃業してる 評価額が上がれば相続税も上がるから、節税を潰すのと事業承継できやんようにするのは紙一重や 結局これ、非流動性資産の評価っていう、金融のど真ん中の問題が税制に化けてる感ある