Courtney Boryski

Algeria returns to buying durum wheat. Deadline Thursday.

Algeria yesterday tendering for Oct-Dec, and now we have Tunisia tendering for 75k for September.

Turkish Durum was sold at 285-290 USD/MT in June 2023 (at the beginning of harvest time) and many pasta producers were just watching the market and expecting to see even lower prices thus Government opened the durum wheat for export to punish them; therefore, let them (pasta producers) worry about where and how they will source their durum, if Turkish durum is not sufficient to produce pasta. As to pasta production, you have a point but the real picture may be a bit different. In 2022, we have exported 1.327 Million tons of pasta and noodle plus 120,000 tons of semolina with the following breakdown: Pasta using durum wheat: 346,814 MT Pasta that contains milling wheat: 904,682 MT Noodle: 75,948 MT Pasta that contains soft wheat is sold to Africa and South America and other developing countries... High quality pasta with high protein (usually above 14% protein and very low ash level of 0.8% is sold to Japan,Taiwan, the USA, Canada, Israil, Africa etc. As to my general comments about durum wheat: 1. Some people are comparing the current durum wheat situation with 2021 durum wheat prices. A big mistake. In 2021, milling wheat prices were also relatively very expensive. This year, however, the situation is different. This year, we can buy soft wheat anywhere in the world with a price ranging from 230-260 USD/MT for 11.5 protein good quality milling wheat thus we should not expect durum prices to be double of milling prices. Furthermore, demand for pasta is not inelastic, pasta has a competition from rice, bread, soft wheat, potatoes, noodles etc. and when durum wheat prices go up too much then people demand pasta produced from cheaper soft wheat. 2. I can understand that durum wheat prices being 25-30% more expensive than soft wheat but if durum prices are constantly 50-60% more expensive than milling wheat naturally people will grow more durum and we will therefore have 40-50 million metric tons instead of 33-35 million MT and naturally prices will go down. 3. This year it was not abnormal for our farmers in Turkey to have yields of 6.5-7 MT/Hectare and thus next year we will have more and more durum wheat. 4. And finally, if our durum wheat is not sufficient after exporting to Italy and beyond, we can always buy durum from land locked Kazakhstan. They have good quality durum and it is not abnormal to have 5,000 km journey with returning trucks with cheap freight cost.