I am prepared to hold Polymarket legally accountable if this market ignores its written rules.
I am offering a $10,000 bounty for the best lawyer/legal team to help challenge this resolution.
Prediction markets cannot invent disclosure-timing rules after the fact.
@shayne_coplan@Polymarket your oracle just resolved the trump-xi iran/nuclear market NO
trump's exact quote: "we did discuss iran. we don't want them to have a nuclear weapon"
- WH pool note #5, filed 11:55 AM Beijing (Danny Kemp, AFP, on-camera real time)
- TVB Hong Kong yt metadata: was_live, timestamp 11:56:11 AM Beijing
- every major broadcaster ran LIVE chyrons
- kalshi resolved the same market correctly
UMA voted NO because the pavilion was "closed press." brother the broadcast happened. on live tv. it's on youtube right now with was_live attached to it.
and this is not the first time we're doing this:
- ukraine mineral deal: $7M market, resolved YES with no deal signed, one wallet swung it with ~5M UMA
- zelensky suit: $160M+ market, every outlet AND POLYMARKET'S OWN ACCOUNT called it a suit, resolved NO, ~$25M staked by whales to make it happen
- now this: $31M currently, the most active market on your platform, flipped by a low-turnout governance vote
UMA's market cap is smaller than the volume of a single disputed market on your venue. top 10 wallets control >50% of voting power in disputes. ~95% of supply held by large holders. you are running a $9B platform on top of an oracle a handful of retards can rug for eight figures
you already override baseball payouts when umpires fuck up. add a human/AI last resort layer for high volume markets with primary source evidence. it's not philosophically harder than what you're already doing
kalshi is eating your volume every week because of exactly this. traders don't want to gamble on whether a UMA whale woke up short. fix it or watch the centralized competitor win the entire prediction market category
ngmi