Mike Craven

Reclaiming the Future – our founding essay is out. For progressives, this is an existential moment. To defy the twin foes of populism and fatalism, they must put ideas back at the centre of their politics and draw on the greatest thinkers from their past, such as Keynes, Crosland and Rawls, to shape the future. We argue for ideas including embracing Europe for growth and security, adopting Danish-style “flexicurity” to make our labour market fit for the age of AI, abolishing the current triple lock, creating a new Department of the PM and allowing London and other wealthy areas to fund their own infrastructure projects. Subscribe to Arguably today and join the debate at the new home of progressive ideas. arguably.uk/p/reclaiming-t…

🚀Thrilled to launch @ArguablyMag with @georgeeaton and a top-tier roster of columnists. The battle for clicks means ideas and debate too often struggle for airtime. Arguably is built on the belief there's a real appetite for something different and we want to meet it.

🚨I’m delighted to announce the launch of @ArguablyMag – a new title for progressive ideas and debate – alongside @camvargas8.  Columnists include @b_judah, @dc_lawrence, @martha_dacombe, Renie Anjeh and Zoë Grünewald. Subscribe now for our launch piece: Arguably.uk

@DAaronovitch @SimonFraser00 Or ever?

I'm struggling to recall any such kind of intervention by a US president or vice president in another country's democratic elections in the last half century.

Good. Speaking for a dog.

100,000 American troops in Europe = a free ride for Europeans? Let's check the facts. 🔹 American military bases are not free Germany, Italy, Spain, and Romania pay for the infrastructure, land, utilities, and civilian personnel of US bases. Germany alone contributes over $1 billion annually to support the American military presence on its soil. 🔹 Europe is the largest customer of the American defense industry F-35s, Patriot missiles, HIMARS, Apaches — all purchased by Europeans with real money. Every security alarm in Europe translates into contracts for Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Boeing. 🔹 American bases in Europe don't only protect Europe Ramstein in Germany coordinates operations across Africa and the Middle East. Sigonella in Italy covers the Mediterranean and North Africa. Romania secures the eastern flank and the Black Sea. These are global American strategic assets — not neighborhood security for Europeans. 🔹 Command is American, not European NATO is always led by an American Supreme Commander (SACEUR). Europe contributes troops, bases, and money — but America holds the controls. Those who control the structure are not the ones getting a free ride. 🔹 The nuclear umbrella is not altruism American nuclear deterrence in Europe keeps the dollar as the world's reserve currency, keeps European markets open to US corporations, and legitimizes American hegemony against Russia and China. But what would actually happen if America withdrew its troops from Europe? 🔹 For America — immediate strategic losses Without bases in Europe, American response time to any crisis in Europe, Africa, or the Middle East grows from hours to days. Ramstein, Sigonella, and Incirlik cannot be replaced by aircraft carriers. Infrastructure built over decades disappears overnight. 🔹 The American defense industry loses its biggest customer A Europe without the US umbrella will build its own defense industry — and fast. Airbus Military, KNDS, Leonardo, and Rheinmetall will take the contracts that Lockheed and Raytheon currently win. Billions of dollars shift from America to Europe. 🔹 The dollar weakens Dollar hegemony is partly sustained by American global military credibility. A withdrawal from Europe signals to the world that America no longer guarantees the postwar order. Alternatives — the euro, the yuan — become more attractive as global reserve options. 🔹 Russia wins without firing a single shot Not necessarily through immediate invasion — but through political influence, energy pressure, and the gradual destabilization of countries on the eastern frontier. The Baltic states, Poland, and Romania enter a security grey zone that no one can guarantee quickly. 🔹 China watches and draws conclusions about Taiwan A precedent of withdrawal from Europe sends a direct signal to Beijing: American commitments are negotiable. The cost of deterrence in the Pacific rises exponentially. Withdrawal is not isolationism. It is strategic abdication. America would not be leaving Europe because it no longer has interests there. It would be leaving while ignoring that those very interests are what make it a superpower. The "free ride" narrative doesn't describe Europe. It describes exactly what America has in Europe.

NEW: For the first time in modern history, the Pentagon offered no Good Friday services for Catholics. While Catholics don't celebrate Mass on Good Friday, they do venerate the cross of Jesus Christ and receive the Eucharist. Earlier this year, Pete Hegseth invited his pastor to speak at the Pentagon. That pastor has called for banning public expressions of Catholicism in the United States. thelettersfromleo.com/p/trump-vance-…

Chag Pesach Sameach to Jewish friends and colleagues #passover

Today is Palm Sunday, marking the beginning of Holy Week as we approach Easter. Today's procession across Trafalgar Square to St Martin-in-the-Fields is a powerful retelling of the story of Jesus’s arrival in Jerusalem.

This is obviously appalling and needs to be resolved. But unprovoked attacks by settlers against the Christian village of Taybeh are worse and protecting that village and its inhabitants is even more urgent.

A thread reflecting on the everyday decency of the great Phil Woolas

Agree - doesn’t work for either side. Today programme was actually better when Cummings era No 10 boycotted it

So sad to hear of Phil Woolas' death. We were friends since student days. Always cheerful and armed with a witty observation, he was also a very effective politician and minister. Love to Tracey who has had to endure the torture of Phil's decline for over a year. #rip

Such sad news. Phil was a good friend since we were students. Such a terrible illness. May he rest in peace #rip

Statements from the chair of Labour Together's board, Baroness Sally Morgan, and CEO, Alison Phillips:

Astonishing result which also shows how unreliable constituency level polling is

Fascinating explanation of the Chagos deal

@JohnRentoul When Tony Blair stood for Leader in 1994, he was a member of the Tribune Group

“Representing”

I’m not surprised by this. I love the United States but I have precisely zero desire to go there this year. Or next year. Or the year after that.

NEW PAPER: Why does British infrastructure cost so much and take so long? Our new paper by @dsquareddigest argues the problem isn't just the fault of regulation, NIMBYs, JR, or risk-averse civil servants – it's an adversarial planning system that manufactures objections 🧵