CryptoCon

Yesterday, I made the decision to sell all of my Bitcoin and Altcoins as I feel data has grown exhausted, which has shifted my perspective from bullish to bearish. I sold my Bitcoin at $112,596.64 I sold my Ethereum at $4,500.82 I have been holding both coins from these prices since November 2022 with no buys or sales in between: Bitcoin: $16,558.55 Ethereum: $1,196.79 I believe the cycle top has already occurred as of August 2025 at 124k. This won't be a popular opinion, just as it wasn't when I did the same thing in April 2021. Will it be right? I have no idea. I am content with my decision and happy with my profits. The full details of my decision are in my latest newsletter: open.substack.com/pub/cryptocon/…

Bitcoin Moon Momentum Phases On phase 1 of 2 of the bear market...

The current Bitcoin bear market now lines up with last cycle's (2022) after a brief period of worse performance. According to other cycles, the most likely next step is a decline to 45k and eventually 35k, where drawdowns unify from June to September. That's not unlikely given the room most indicators have to go before bottoming out, and bottom support metrics which line up in that zone (35k - 45k). It's the last drop that does most of the damage, which has been the part that decreases every cycle. It will be interesting to see what happens then! (October - November of this year)

Long term Bitcoin holders (addresses holding 1 year or more) are finally starting to get more interested in these prices! Even still, there's a long drop before we reach high long term holder levels, which signals the beginning of the end of the bear market.

We know standard Weekly RSI is at cycle bottom levels, but let's look at it a different way... This is the Weekly RSI of Bitcoin's Realized Market Cap, which gives us a similar result to what metrics like Puell Multiple, MVRV, and NUPL tell us: Bitcoin is close to cycle bottom levels, but slightly off. The Realized Market Cap Makes For a great cycle bottom moving average as well and has caught each of them precisely. The price to reach is 42.5k and is decreasing slightly over time.

This looks like a classic end to a money flow strength triple top. The phases played out perfectly last cycle, with the final note being the end of money flow in November 2025, signaling the cycle top was in. The end of the bear market (phase 1) comes when the metric returns to low global cash influx, followed by a huge surge in strength. Translation: it's going to be a while before this metric says the bear market is over. I'm not typically a fan of macro indicators for Bitcoin, but this one has been doing great!

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The age old saying is "Don't fight the trend." In this case, I think that's the Halving Cycle. People fought tooth and nail for a breakdown of the 4 year cycle all the way up in the last bull market (2023 - 2025), and it turned out just as it always did. Now the bear market is underway and at every low, unsurprisingly, people are calling for it to end early. The Consecutive Candles has just put in its second "7" of the bear market with one more to go (or a13), and many months before that can happen. "The 4 year cycle is too obvious!" Yet it always finds a way to hide in plain sight.

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised by just how bad the bear market can get. There were lots of bottom calls in November last year, and they're starting to spring up again. The further the price declines, the more convincing they will be. The Chandelier Phases are in the early development of the bear market phase (phase 3). Phase 4 (Bear Market End) marks the cycle bottom with a precise touch of the cycle bottom/retest zone. The big lessons I've learned from watching bear markets and making great buys are: 1. Don't be too eager to jump in; let the process play out 2. The right time to buy feels like the wrong time

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1st pivot of the bear market almost complete on the Price Oscillator Phases; the price boost is just what we needed. 2 more pivots to go until the cycle bottom! Another surge of early euphoria is setting in as Bitcoin bounces.

A bounce after the first low of the bear market makes sense. So far, everything is right where it should be. It's the exact time frame expected according to the Halving Cycles Theory, and price at the first low band of the Bear Bands. The next important low isn't due for at least another 5 months, and the cycle bottom, at the earliest, 3 months after that. The second low band is at 44.5k, and the cycle bottom band is at 28.5k. This bear market still has plenty of time to go and a lot of ground to cover!

The most popular cycle bottom indicator being used is Weekly RSI. Simply put, it's oversold, and other times that's happened were the cycle bottom. So what's the difference this time? Why wouldn't the bottom be in? Most RSI time frames show that Bitcoin failed to reach cycle top levels, as did many other indicators. Take 22 day RSI for example, which has a hyper-accurate channel for cycle tops and bottoms. No cycle top triggers last cycle. About 10 points off at its highest. Now it's at a place that would usually be the precise bottom. But if there's weakening at the top end, it opens the door for weakening at the lower end and the channel to break. Be careful of the "always" metrics. Prior accuracy does not imply future accuracy, and a lot of the time intuition is required.

So far, both of the local lows have respected the heaviest blocks of volume on the volume profile. The latest obviously being 62k - 71k. The interesting part is how thin the volume is between 62k and 30k... The next big block of volume is up to a 40k drop from here at 25k - 30k. 25k - 30k also lines up roughly with the cycle bottom band of the magic bands V2, the bear bands, and level 1 of the golden ratio multiplier. Needless to say that price range is on my radar for a cycle bottom in the Halvings Cycles Theory time frame of November 2026 - January 2027. But, when it comes to price, it's important to be flexible!

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The current bear market is now closer to cycle 2 (2018) than it is to cycle 3 (2022). Bitcoin is at -48% from the cycle top. 2018 was -50% at the same time, and 2023 was - 30%. The trick is not to get too ancy to jump in; this is a slow process. With only 3 examples, we also don't know for sure that drawdowns will diminish every cycle, meaning there is the possibility that this cycle has a harsher decline than other bear markets. Just waiting

Strap in, but don't get too excited! The bear market has a ways to go... Volatility is shriveling up again after the move to 60k, another standard trait of the bear market. Time and price wise, I think we're about 30% through the bear market. That's a pretty common thought currently, but as usual, I expect some strange nuances or events to keep people on their toes. The Ulcer Index gives us these relative dates for our current metric position: April 2014 May 2018 January 2022 It's got a decent track record of catching the bottom after a cross, but there's still a long stretch before that happens.

"The Halving Cycles Theory can't keep being right because it's too obvious!" The same words were said during the entire cycle 4 bull run. As price continues to decline, targets change, and time frames change. "I'm buying at 30 - 40k at the end of the year" becomes... "This will be a hyper bear market because Bitcoin is irrelevant, etc., we're going to 5k." And everyone just accepts it as guaranteed. Like in November 2022 at 16.5k after the collapse of FTX, it was "A recession is coming, you don't understand the macro, 10 - 12k next." The real event will seriously challenge anyone's game plan of how they believe things will play out.

The last big move was a precise hit of level 2 on the Magic Bands at 65k. And, in the exact time frame you'd expect. Dates for previous level 2 in bear markets: February 26th, 2014 February 3rd, 2018 January 23rd, 2022 February 7th, 2026 The cycle bottom band, which has been incredibly accurate, sits at 28.2k and is slightly increasing. Lots of waiting to do!

Now things get confusing. Plenty of people are screaming for lower prices, and some isolated indicators like Weekly RSI are at cycle bottom levels. So you should be buying, right? The whole picture says no. Psychology can be helpful, but also misleading. Price can still go up or down when "most" people expect it to. It does all the time. The Aroon Oscillator is ahead of the projection I laid out for returning to cycle bottom levels, but still has plenty of ground to cover before getting there.