Daniel Zhao

Gonna be doing live commentary for JOLTS + the jobs report this week on Bluesky rather than over here bsky.app/profile/daniel…

Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 211,000, lowest since April 2024. Similarly, continuing claims fell to 1,844,000, the lowest since September. Neither seem like the start of a new trend though; more likely seasonal adj around the holidays is volatile

Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped to 220,000, reversing the prior week's bump, likely due to seasonal adjustment quirks around the holidays. Continuing claims also ticked down to 1,874,000. Both affirm no major deterioration in the labor market.

The share of employees w/ a positive business outlook on their employers ticked down in November to 47.5% from 48.1%. The @Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index has been little changed over recent months, despite the election boosting some other confidence measures.

Initial UI claims jumped to 242,000 last week, though this may be due to the timing of Thanksgiving this year. Continuing claims rose modestly to 1,886,000, still below the level in recent weeks, though still consistent with a gradually cooling job market over 2024.

These conspiracy theories make zero sense anyway but I also find it similarly "amusing" that they rest on the convoluted idea that other govt datasets like CPS or QCEW show the truth but the BLS is manipulating *just* CES bc... reasons?

@Elzon110 Rebound is v specifically referring to temp. effects from the storms & strike fading. I talk further down in the thread about the softer household survey data.

@DanielBZhao Nope. Permanent job losses increased. No rebound in the real economy. The BLS numbers rebounded, but those are estimates. Estimates that will be revised.

The job market rebounded as expected from the Oct storms & strikes in the Nov #jobsreport, though still consistent with gradual cooling. -Payrolls grew 227,000, up from 36,000 in Oct (revised up from 12,000) -Unemp ticked up to 4.2% -Avg hrly earnings growth flat at 4% YoY 1/

Lots of hay has been made about govt hiring supporting jobs growth in the last 2 years. Crucial context: The state & local government job recovery still lags the private sector, including both education and non-education (e.g., police officers, social workers, clerks) 9/

The Black unemployment rate jumped to 6.4%, highest since March. Black labor force participation also fell under the surface from 62.9% to 62.4% 8/

Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 224,000 last week. Continuing claims dropped to 1,871,000. Weekly seasonal adjustment around the holidays can be imprecise, but claims still seem to tell the same story of gradual softening in the job market with no surge in layoffs.

Festive decor falling victim to belt-tightening this holiday season -Beige Book, St Louis Fed

Labor hoarding still a theme. Employers being cautious with several anecdotes of sticking to cuts by attrition rather than layoffs -Beige Book, Chicago Fed

Unseasonably warm weather hurting snowmobile sales -Beige Book, Boston Fed