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Dogger
1.1K posts
Dogger
@DoggerDc
Solana | Onchain Analytics | Market Structure
Onchain Beigetreten Ocak 2022
184 Folgt304 Follower
$20M today
$20M at $100 BTC = 200,000 BTC
200,000 BTC at today's price = $13.7B
but this assumes you:
▸ actually put all $20M into a sketchy internet coin in 2013
▸ held through -85% in 2014
▸ held through -84% in 2018
▸ held through -77% in 2022
▸ didn't sell at $1K, $10K, $20K, $50K, or $100K
▸ with "zero knowledge of what it would become"
with zero knowledge you sell at $1,000 and feel like a genius
you walk away with $200K and tell the story at parties forever
take the $20M
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"I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom"
you and about 347 other accounts who all claim to be the only one
the survivorship bias playbook:
▸ make 20 predictions
▸ delete the 18 that were wrong
▸ screenshot the 2 that hit
▸ build entire brand around it
▸ end every post with "turn notifications on"
if the calls were that good you wouldn't need to tell people to follow you. the P&L would do it.
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Everything is going according to the plan.
2018 → 2022 → 2026
Bitcoin cycle bottom will look exactly like this.
Remember, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October.
If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
Alex Mason 👁△@AlexMasonCrypto
🚨 READ THIS CAREFULLY Bitcoin has just entered the relief phase of the bear market. 2022 structure is repeating perfectly: 54% drop from ATH → complete Relief rally → now Final capitulation → next This is where the trap is. Most traders think the bottom is in during this phase. It isn’t. The part almost nobody understands: Timing. Days from cycle top → final bottom: 2012: 405 days 2016: 362 days 2020: 376 days Based on historical timing, the highest-probability window for the real bottom is: July–November 2026. That matters more than any price level people are watching. Most traders think like this: “I’ll buy at X.” But real bottoms don’t form where it feels obvious. They form where people give up. And before that happens: There has to be pain. - Forced selling (happening). - Liquidations (in progress). - Panic (almost there). - Sentiment collapse (soon). When people stop buying dips… Narratives break… Everyone turns bearish… That’s when bottoms form. We’re not there yet. Yes, I started accumulating in the $60k range already. Even though the timing window isn’t here yet. Back in October, around $120k, I said I’d be a strong buyer near $60k. People laughed. “BTC will never go below $100k again.” Now we’re here. Remember, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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NFTs are all over the timeline again and it’s giving me early 2021 vibes.
The excitement. The curiosity. Everyone discovering something new every day. New friendships being made. We had no idea what was coming back then.
Starting to feel like that again right now.
Bullish.
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"it's like we're back in 2024"
except in 2024 you didn't have:
▸ 270K BTC whale accumulation (largest since 2013)
▸ $55.93B in ETF capital
▸ SEC-CFTC unified framework
▸ Coinbase as a federally regulated trust bank
▸ Saylor holding 766,970 BTC
same price. completely different structural floor underneath it.
2024 was hope. 2026 is infrastructure at a discount.
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Buying Bitcoin during bear markets is like traveling in time
When Bitcoin was at $126K, everybody wished they could go back to 2024 when it was under $70K
Today, it's like we're back in 2024
Most people aren't taking advantage because the goal posts always move
They got what they wanted, but now they demand even more
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this math is correct in hindsight
but the financial advisor didn't know the S&P would average 10.5%
what the advisor did know:
▸ mortgage payoff = guaranteed 3.2% return
▸ S&P = historically 10% but includes years of -30%
▸ uncle's risk tolerance = unknown
▸ uncle's sleep at night = priceless
the $340K in "missed gains" assumes he would've held through every crash without panic selling
the people who actually held S&P through 2008, 2020, and 2022 without selling are in the top 1% of discipline
your uncle probably isn't that guy. most people aren't. the advisor knew that.
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Financial advisor told my uncle to pay off his mortgage early instead of investing.
He paid off a 3.2% interest loan.
The S%P averaged 10,5% that decade,
He saved $40,000 in interest.
He missed $340,000 in gains.
Felt responsible.
Cost him a retirement.
Every dollar matters.
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@JakeGagain nobody who's been broke and then not broke has ever said this
the people who say money doesn't matter always have enough of it
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good breakdown but missing the third scenario that's historically most likely:
Scenario C — deadline passes, no deal, no bombs
▸ March 20 deadline: extended
▸ April 6 deadline: extended to April 8
▸ April 8 deadline: ???
Trump's language escalated but Morgan Stanley published today that Hormuz won't reopen this month
the market isn't pricing in deal or destruction
the market is pricing in another extension followed by more chop
the boring scenario is always the most likely and the least discussed
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Today is going to be a BIG day.
The deadline is 8PM ET tonight.
Either Iran and the U.S. reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or Trump will bomb the living hell out of Iran and the war will enter dangerous territory.
If the deal is officially confirmed:
- Oil will drop hard close to $100
- Stocks and crypto will explode higher just like the April 2025 tariff rally from the lows.
If a deal is not confirmed and Trump bombs Iran's energy sites which are surrounded by civilians:
- Oil will rise sharply to $130, potentially moving towards $150 like many analysts are predicting.
- Stocks will crash hard as the market will expect a retaliation from Iran by closing the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab Strait.
- Crypto will crash with stocks and if Bitcoin breaks and closes below $65,800 the next drop could take out the $60,000 low sending BTC to $58k-$55k.
So today will decide if the market will bottom and give us a relief rally or we are totally cooked with our magic internet money.
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IV dropping from 56 to 47 before a binary event at 8PM tonight is not exhaustion
it's mispricing
every time IV compresses before a known catalyst, the move that follows is outsized because options are underpricing the actual range
August 2024: IV compressed before BOJ. BTC dropped 30% in a week.
January 2024: IV compressed before ETF approval. BTC ripped 60% in a month.
cheap options before Iran deadline + CPI Thursday = the vol sellers are about to learn
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this is literally what memecoin launches look like
replace "poker bots sharing cards" with "46 wallets from the same deployer"
same concept:
▸ they know each other's positions
▸ they coordinate against the outsider
▸ the outsider thinks it's a fair game
▸ the house (platform) doesn't care because volume is volume
the only difference is poker bots are illegal and memecoin cabals call it "marketing"
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This is literally just one of countless unethical ways money is made online.
This video shows a poker bot farm.
Multiple bots sit at the same table and share their cards in real time.
Because they know each other’s cards, they never bluff or trap each other.
They only bet aggressively when the human is statistically behind, and fold otherwise.
A single bot farm like this can make more than the house!!
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@TedPillows "the US administration thinks Iran will respond"
Iran said yesterday they only accept guaranteed end of war. not a pause. not a framework.
responding ≠ agreeing
6 hours is enough time for a statement. it's not enough time for peace.
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Aster:
▸ TVL -67%
▸ fees -90%
▸ token -71%
▸ KOLs: silent
Hyperliquid:
▸ open interest ATH ($2.3B)
▸ active traders ATH (246K)
▸ no KOL campaigns
▸ no insider allocations
one needed paid shills to survive. the other grew because people actually used it.
product vs marketing. the market always figures out which is which.
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Remember when I called Aster the insider ponzi it turned out to be?
Remember all the cabal accounts and KOLs going after me while shilling it to you for exit liquidity?
Well, Aster TVL down -67%, daily fees down -90%, $ASTER down -71%.
And based on current traction vs FDV, looks like it can still go infinitely lower.
Ponzi copycats are dead.
Long live Hyperliquid.
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the scariest number here isn't any single balance
it's that 65+ is LOWER than 55-64
that means people are withdrawing in retirement faster than it grows
they saved for 40 years and the money started running out immediately
the 401k was never a retirement plan. it was a hope-you-die-before-it-runs-out plan.
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The latest 401k data was released
Here is the median balance by age:
18-24: $2k
25-34: $16k
35-44: $40k
45-54: $68k
55-64: $96k
Over 65: $95k
Are you ahead or behind?
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9M barrels/day is half of what flows through Hormuz (17.8M bpd)
for context:
▸ OPEC+ just added 206K bpd — that covers 2.3% of the drop
▸ Saudi pipeline at max capacity: 7M bpd — still not enough
▸ global spare capacity: ~3.5M bpd
the math doesn't work. 9M offline can't be replaced.
oil stays above $100 until Hormuz reopens. everything else is noise.
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US government expects Middle East oil production to drop by 9,000,000 barrels per day this month.
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@Jeremybtc salary up 72%
home prices up 138%
S&P 500 up 530%
gold up 580%
BTC up ∞%
the lesson: your income is a tool. assets are the game.
the people who understood this in 2003 retired. the people who didn't are still renting.
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In 2003, the median salary was $43,318. The median home price was $180,200.
That's 4.2x your annual income.
In 2024, the median salary is $74,580. The median home price is $429,000.
That's 5.7x your annual income.
Salaries went up 72%. Home prices went up 138%.
The math on homeownership just doesn't work the same way anymore with inflation as the silent killer.
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BlackRock activity this cycle:
▸ deposited $181M to Coinbase Prime last week (selling fears)
▸ received $236M back this week
they weren't selling. they were rebalancing.
CT saw the deposit and panicked. CT won't see the receipt and correct themselves.
this is why tracking flows matters more than reading headlines.
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BlackRock just received 2,607 $BTC($177.56M) and 28,391 $ETH($59M) from Coinbase Prime.
intel.arkm.com/explorer/entit…
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358 SOL saved per day in fees across the network
that's ~$28.5K/day at current prices
~$10.4M/year in value that stays with users instead of validators
and that's at current volume. scale back to 200M+ daily txs from the peak and the savings double
this is the kind of infrastructure upgrade that doesn't pump the price tomorrow but changes the cost structure permanently
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Solana daily transactions last week: ~102M avg
with the new p-token coming this April, this would only cost 20 SOL in fees as opposed to 378 SOL
That's 358 SOL in priority fees saved.
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tonight at 8PM ET: Trump's Iran deadline
both sides rejected the 45-day ceasefire yesterday
Trump: "not good enough"
Iran: "we only accept guaranteed end of war"
this isn't "things might get worse"
this is a binary event with three outcomes:
▸ deal → oil drops $15-25, everything rips
▸ extension → more chop, more pain
▸ strikes → oil $130+, BTC tests $60K
"we'll find out tonight" is correct
"might get worse" is only one of three scenarios
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