Emz
169 posts
🚨NBA FREE PICK 01/25🚨 Chet Holmgren Over 27.5 PR - 1U (1.83) OKC is without multiple key pieces today, most notably J-Dub and Hartenstein, which significantly increases Chet’s offensive and rebounding load. He draws a favorable matchup against a Raptors team weak at defending PR, and the trend is strong — when Chet faces bottom-10 PR defenses vs his position and plays his expected minutes, he’s gone over in 6 of 7 games. Research From @propsmadness
James Harden o4.5 Rebs (-133 Ladbrokes/Coral) 1.0u Great matchup for Harden against the Bulls who give up the 9th most boards. Clippers missing lots of good rebounders like Kawhi meaning boards will go elsewhere and Harden has seen the positive effect of that, going over 4.5 rebounds in 8/11 games in Kawhi’s absence. This goes to 3/3 with 10,14,7 boards when facing top ten paced teams as faster pace leads to more possessions and more missed shots.
Anthony Edwards o3.5 3ptm (+100 FanDuel) 1.0u Over this line in 5 straight vs the Jazz with 5+ made 3’s in every matchup, attempting at least 9 3pta’s. -150 on Bet365 to record o8.5 3pta’s and when doing so this season, is over 3.5 3ptm in 14/15 games. Blowout is a potential here, but in games won by 25+ this season, Ant has recorded 4 3’s in 4/5 games. The Jazz rank dead last in defending every metric regarding 3’s and the last 4 similar players by propsmadness recommendation also cleared their 3’s line.
Marcus Smart o2.5 Rebs (-133 BetVictor) 1.0u On the season the Nuggets are giving up the 9th least rebounds. But Jokic is still out and that’s made the Nuggets one of the worst rebounding teams itl. Over the last 10 and last 5 games giving up the 3rd most rebounds itl. Smart has cleared in every game against a team who rank top 10 in defensive rebounds allowed in their previous 5 games.
NBA Saturday Recap (+2.3u) ✅ Klay Thompson o2.5 3ptm (-125) ✅ Jerami Grant o15.5 Pts (-110) ✅ Alex Caruso o1.5 Asts (-115) ✅ Derrick White o10.5 RA (-135) ❌ Nikola Jovic o3.5 Rebs (-125) Great night inside the discord unfortunately couldn’t get the sweep.
🩺 PRESCR. PLAY #1 | USAGE OVERDOSE 💊 CJ McCollum OVER 20.5 PA (-122) 🏥 ATL @ MIL | Today Projection: 26.1 P+A Tag me when it hits 🎯 ❤️ if you're riding McCollum has posted a 26.3%+ usage rate in every game as a Hawk, with his L5 usage spiking to 31.1% (up from 24.3% season average). With 14+ FGA in the 27-33 minute range and 25%+ usage, he's hit the over in 18 of 22 games since last season (82%). Isolating for below-average defensive rating matchups: 10/11 overs With 27-33 minutes and 25%+ usage, over in 18/22 since last season. 10/11 if isolating for below average defensive rating matchups. While this isn’t a great pull up shooting matchup, the usage is too high for this line and could just lead to a higher assist boost for PA. Potential assists with ATL: 8 per game MIL ranks 28th in assists allowed L10 Additionally, guards who see good minutes and usage off the bench have been dominating here (25+ min, 20% usage): Harper: 18 PA Hyland: 28 PA Melton: 22 PA Schroder: 18 PA Sexton: 22 PA Carrington: 25 PA Spencer: 24 PA Grimes: 27 PA
