"Dario" • Trading Advisor

Are investors, Wall Street, Social media, mainstream media sycophants and the NASDAQ finally going to ask questions about this after 18 months?

Almost one year ago in the post below I stated: “I bet the FBI will raid $SMCI offices and open a hell of a pandora box” Today the company issued a statement confirming 3 people associated with $SMCI have been charged by the FBI with conspiracy to smuggle billions worth of AI tech in violation of US export control regulations. Yes, so far only these individuals are being prosecuted, but if you think that the company had no involvement, I suggest to stop believing in unicorns. We know $SMCI has been cooking its books and now we know criminal activity in breach of US laws happened in connection with the company. Be ready for the full extent of the fraud to be official in any moment and for the value of its shares to sharply fall to its fair value: ZERO.

I won’t be shocked to see a rush to buy Natural Gas outside from the ME to make fertiliser and urea in a hurry before a massive food supply shock strikes - unless the Hormuz reopens soon (I strongly doubt)

$JPY, UK 10y and 30y yields, US Treasury 10y and 30y yields are all hoovering around levels won’t tolerate for much longer. Marching orders to central bankers are still to cut rates and keep financial conditions loose while wars are inflationary especially those causing broad supply chain disruptions The whole market is a ginormous powder keg that can blast at any time, governments cannot have their cake (stocks must always go up) and eat it too (cap the cost of ballooning public debt). Something has to give and such an incredible distortion cannot stay in place forever without massive damages to one corner or another of the global economy. Putting all together all points towards a brewing massive spike in volatility followed by a severe inflation fallout. I will position myself accordingly.

"Anywhere from $40 billion to $150 billion of leveraged loans packaged into US collateralized loan obligations could be disrupted by the AI boom," per JPMorgan