FireflyTA

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$BTC still at key support. If it won't break until end of next week, a big relief rally seems likely.

Interesting $BTC price action around the 50d-SMA, which could indicate a pump. If bulls can defend this break-in and confirm the 50d🟢 as support, a move to the 100d🟣 becomes more likely. The 100d is exactly at horizontal key resistance, forming some nice confluence at around $79,000-80,500. This is invalidated the moment price closes daily candles below the 50d again.

One of my favorite structures on $BTC. I have often talked about this in the past. When price slowly builds momentum and starts following a parabolic trajectory after a major decline, the situation becomes much harder to trade. Why? 1. The major decline causes aftershocks (lingering downside momentum), so price cannot simply lift off and reverse. Long entries can easily get caught by strong, sudden dumps like the ones marked in red. You never know whether they will break structure or maintain the parabolic trajectory. 2. A parabolic structure relies on multiple confirmations and retests of its trajectory line (here in teal) to build trust. Compounding trust fuels FOMO and draws in more traders, which accelerates upside momentum and creates the steep incline toward the end. Because trust takes time to build, traders are often late to the move. Such situations can therefore be interpreted as both bullish and bearish, similar to how @PeterLBrandt discusses the possibility of this turning into a “horn” or bear flag. A key indicator of the outcome is the strength and velocity of the dumps while price still respects the structure. The red arrows show violent moves rather than soft landings, which points toward a potential bearish structure break in the near future. tl;dr - When price falls gently along the trajectory line, forming well-rounded bottoms with downside wicks (indicating buyback at key support), it is the ideal setup for a strong parabola. Violent sell-offs within the structure significantly increase risk of structure break.

$BTC Quick Bitcoin update: We got a clean bearish retest of the first HTF key resistance level. But: the candle hasn't closed yet. Never do analysis on unfinished candles. However: The rejection is very sharp. Chances are high we will see a move to the range lows or new cycle lows. This current trend is very standard for a bear market. I'm still expecting the 40-60k range to be the most important price range for a potential bottom later this year.

@noisyb0y1 easy block

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@Pladizow 2015: Acted as support 2019: Acted as support for a failed breakout 2022: Support broken + acted as resistance in accumulation phase 2026: Expectation would be worse than 2022, resistance for longer

BTC monthly: Bottom of the Bollinger Band. 👀🤔❓

Posting after a longer break. Here's an update on the $BTC situation. The most likely scenario was confirmed (bear market). We had 2 chances of continuing the trend at the teal and blue zones. Now it's a done deal. Based on the patterns up until today, I'd expect the bear market to take ~1 year, meaning what we have seen so far is only a tiny impulse down. Price targets range from 16-20k (double bottom -> long-term horizontal base) to 30s and 40s. It's rather unlikely to stay above 40k in this bear market. Next update will follow when the situation has progressed.

This. It doesn't matter if $BTC proceeds higher or confirms the bear market, have a plan for both outcomes. I did that by selling a big chunk of my cycle holdings during distribution >100k. If it goes higher, I'll ride the rest of my position higher. If it goes lower, I won't lose much anymore. Bounces in macro top structures are opportunities to sell if you're overexposed.

Together with the RSI indications, I strongly favor a combination of scenario 2+3 now. Meaning we will get a decent rally soon, and then bear market continuation.

$BTC updated my scenario chart

This take aligns with the scenarios I outlined earlier. Scenario 1 is invalidated, so we're looking at 2 or 3 or a combination of them. x.com/FireflyTA/stat…

$BTC Thanks to the bearish divergence we had, weekly RSI was already very low when the breakout move started. Now it's turned into a crash that brought RSI near the levels of the bear market low already. This hints at two possible outcomes. One is a fast V-shape to a new ATH (not saying we'll get the bull market back, we could or could not - see 2021). The other one is a relief trend over time, so weekly RSI can bounce a bit before price continues down. The broken RSI-44 level could be the retest target of such a move.

$BTC and crypto markets at an interesting spot here closing in on the 3T mark. Eyes on that level. Alts also at key trendline.

$BTC The rallies in this bull market were basically just retests of the lost log trend. Below the log trend, the predominant environment is a more mature one with less explosive growth. My thesis is, if we fall into a bear market now, we'll probably see a sidewayish trend for a very long time.

$BTC if we bounce here, key resistance starts at 110k.

Alts have been performing poorly this cycle. If BTC makes a new ATH that without immediate failure, there's a good chance all crypto markets will experience major upside. Looking at the total mcap chart excluding BTC, alt mcap is still in an uptrend, crawling to its previous ATH. If it can make a new ATH from there with conviction without breaking market structure, a major alt season is in the cards, yes. On the flipside, when alts break market structure (red trendline + lower low), then a real bear market is much more likely.

@FireflyTA So you think there is a decent chance for alt season before?

$BTC Don't overcomplicate things. We're in a textbook macro pattern and the outcome is almost always the same. We either make a base and go higher or the market tops out for the cycle. There is a slim chance we will see a more complex and much bigger VA pattern which usually looks bearish at first (asc. broadening wedge or rising wedge) but breaks to the upside. Very common in bull markets and especially towards the end. ATM we're in a chop zone between 97-125k. - Losing 97 = scenario 2 or 3 more likely and 1 invalidated. - Gaining 125 without failed breakout = scenario 1 confirmed. Anyway, this is a potential spot to top out so be careful. If there is strength and the base holds well and there are significant buybacks, it sure can go higher.

@Carrot_Pirate I'm bearish as in "the cycle will probably end soon". But I'm not saying this right now is the start of the bear market. We don't know that yet and we could still go higher before we flip.

@FireflyTA So you’re bearish :(

$BTC Something to keep in mind is that whenever there is a flash crash like we saw in October, aftershocks can be expected. This is normal price behavior. Others call it "filling wicks" or "retest of the range lows" or whatever, but the logic is universally applicable to fast market crashes: crash + recovery + aftershock(s). This move is the second aftershock after Oct-17. We don't know if it will trigger a full-fledged downtrend, but that's not important. Important is, these moves can be expected whenever you see something like on Oct-10. If you feel surprised by this move, the next time you see this, expect at least one more. True V-shapes without aftershocks do happen, but are very rare.