Roy An
1.2K posts
@HelloitsRoy
AI Engineer | Asset Manager | Mentoring 5 students every month | IG : helloitsroy
🇦🇺 I am bullish on the AUD. But let me first tell you what I did yesterday. In yesterday’s email, I informed you guys that I will be staying away from the Oil markets, as it seemed uncertain wether Iran will retaliate to the U.S “project freedom”. If Iran didn’t retaliate, Oil prices would go down. If they did, Oil prices would go up. That’s why I decided to stay away. But then, my phone started beeping, an alert from the UAE government warning us about a missile threat. (See picture attached) Iran is retaliating. I knew this would take some time to hit mainstream media, so I went to my desk, logged into my trading account, and took this Oil trade (see second picture attached) As you can see, and as usual, I closed my Oil trade around 10pm Dubai Time. Now, in regards to the EURJPY sell I informed you guys about yesterday, I closed it also around 10pm Dubai Time (see second picture attached) Good start of the week so far. For those of you wondering why the JPY isn’t really moving (consolidating) despite FX-intervention. It’s because Japan is now on holiday (golden week holiday) , so banks and institutions are closed. Their last day of holiday is Wednesday 6 May, it’s when we can start seeing some more movement for the JPY. Now for today, I’m mainly focused on the Australian Dollar : 1) Australia is most likely raising Capital gains taxes starting 12 May 2026. Which is bullish for the AUD. 2) Australia raised their interest rates today to 4.35% 3) Household spending in Australia was announced, it went up to 6.3%. All bullish for the AUD. If you’d like to get these mini articles by email and be first to know, subscribe here : royanofficial.substack.com
Trump’s telling ships they can pass the Strait, Iran is warning ships to not pass. If traders give more weight to Trump’s promise, then the Oil market is about to head down. If they give more weight to Iran’s warning, then the Oil market is about to head up. Therefore, due to this uncertainty, I will be staying away from the Oil markets today. Trump says he will hike tariffs on EU cars to 25%, that’s bad news for the EUR. The Japan FX intervention I emailed you on Thursday remains, that’s good news for the JPY. Therefore, all I’m looking into is some EURJPY bearish trades. If you’d like to receive my mini macro market analysis every morning by Email, feel free to subscribe here : royanofficial.substack.com
Iran gave response to latest U.S amendments on agreement, according to Axios. This is calming the oil markets down at the moment.
🇯🇵 I’m bullish on the JPY today. Katayama said that they’re nearing FX intervention. FX intervention means massive buying of the JPY in order to artificially strengthen it. Already sent a detailed analysis about this on Substack : open.substack.com/pub/royanoffic…
Good morning everyone, I’m mainly looking today at some Oil and AUD bullishness, with some crypto bearishness. Let’s dive into what’s moving markets today : 1) Wheat just hit a 2-years high. Gulf fertilizer production is down 60% since the war begun. This signals that global food inflation is incoming. Higher inflation is historically a signal of lower crypto prices, hence my bearish bias. What’s really important to track today is Kevin Warsh being appointed, and the Fed interest rate decision, both will point towards future monetary policy ; if they point towards possible interest rate cuts, that’s historically bullish for crypto prices, therefore it would encourage me to exit any crypto sells I have. 2) Trump just posted that Iran is failing at signing a “non-nuclear deal” , which signals further escalation between US-Iran and drives oil prices up. The Wall Street Journal reported that the president has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran’s ports. Between 125 and 140 ships usually cross the Strait of Hormuz daily, but yesterday, only seven have done so, according to Kpler. All of the above signals bullish oil prices, de-escalation signals of course invalidate this bias (if they occur). 3) Australia has a budget meeting on Tuesday 12 May. However, some aspects of it have already been leaked yesterday : Australia will most likely raise capital gains tax (by scaling back a discount on Capital gains tax that Australia has previously implemented). While this is bad news for Australian property owners, it’s good news for government income, debt, and more importantly the strength of the AUD. Raising Capital Gains Tax should ideally lower inflation a bit and give the government more income to work with during these economic uncertain times. 4) I would stay away from the stock market today, I previously had a US30 sell ongoing that I just closed at BE. It is true that higher projected inflation usually should lower stock market prices, but today we have really important earnings being announced, which could provide some support to the stock market, hence why I’m staying away. Good luck ! Roy An. PS: if you’d like to receive this everyday by email (at no charge), subscribe to my substack here : royanofficial.substack.com
Good morning everyone, I’m mainly looking today at some Oil and AUD bullishness, with some crypto bearishness. Let’s dive into what’s moving markets today : 1) Wheat just hit a 2-years high. Gulf fertilizer production is down 60% since the war begun. This signals that global food inflation is incoming. Higher inflation is historically a signal of lower crypto prices, hence my bearish bias. What’s really important to track today is Kevin Warsh being appointed, and the Fed interest rate decision, both will point towards future monetary policy ; if they point towards possible interest rate cuts, that’s historically bullish for crypto prices, therefore it would encourage me to exit any crypto sells I have. 2) Trump just posted that Iran is failing at signing a “non-nuclear deal” , which signals further escalation between US-Iran and drives oil prices up. The Wall Street Journal reported that the president has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran’s ports. Between 125 and 140 ships usually cross the Strait of Hormuz daily, but yesterday, only seven have done so, according to Kpler. All of the above signals bullish oil prices, de-escalation signals of course invalidate this bias (if they occur). 3) Australia has a budget meeting on Tuesday 12 May. However, some aspects of it have already been leaked yesterday : Australia will most likely raise capital gains tax (by scaling back a discount on Capital gains tax that Australia has previously implemented). While this is bad news for Australian property owners, it’s good news for government income, debt, and more importantly the strength of the AUD. Raising Capital Gains Tax should ideally lower inflation a bit and give the government more income to work with during these economic uncertain times. 4) I would stay away from the stock market today, I previously had a US30 sell ongoing that I just closed at BE. It is true that higher projected inflation usually should lower stock market prices, but today we have really important earnings being announced, which could provide some support to the stock market, hence why I’m staying away. Good luck ! Roy An. PS: if you’d like to receive this everyday by email (at no charge), subscribe to my substack here : royanofficial.substack.com
Good morning everyone, I’m mainly looking today at some Oil and AUD bullishness, with some crypto bearishness. Let’s dive into what’s moving markets today : 1) Wheat just hit a 2-years high. Gulf fertilizer production is down 60% since the war begun. This signals that global food inflation is incoming. Higher inflation is historically a signal of lower crypto prices, hence my bearish bias. What’s really important to track today is Kevin Warsh being appointed, and the Fed interest rate decision, both will point towards future monetary policy ; if they point towards possible interest rate cuts, that’s historically bullish for crypto prices, therefore it would encourage me to exit any crypto sells I have. 2) Trump just posted that Iran is failing at signing a “non-nuclear deal” , which signals further escalation between US-Iran and drives oil prices up. The Wall Street Journal reported that the president has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran’s ports. Between 125 and 140 ships usually cross the Strait of Hormuz daily, but yesterday, only seven have done so, according to Kpler. All of the above signals bullish oil prices, de-escalation signals of course invalidate this bias (if they occur). 3) Australia has a budget meeting on Tuesday 12 May. However, some aspects of it have already been leaked yesterday : Australia will most likely raise capital gains tax (by scaling back a discount on Capital gains tax that Australia has previously implemented). While this is bad news for Australian property owners, it’s good news for government income, debt, and more importantly the strength of the AUD. Raising Capital Gains Tax should ideally lower inflation a bit and give the government more income to work with during these economic uncertain times. 4) I would stay away from the stock market today, I previously had a US30 sell ongoing that I just closed at BE. It is true that higher projected inflation usually should lower stock market prices, but today we have really important earnings being announced, which could provide some support to the stock market, hence why I’m staying away. Good luck ! Roy An. PS: if you’d like to receive this everyday by email (at no charge), subscribe to my substack here : royanofficial.substack.com
